Arrogate led San Pasqual 2017: Odds and Analysis
Over the years, the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes has been won by some pretty heavy hitters; Ack Ack and Criminal Type won it as part of their Horse of the Year seasons. Silver Charm got the job done in the 1999 edition, and of course, just 12 months ago, California Chrome made his triumphant return to the races in the San Pasqual. There will be no Chrome this year. Instead we will see the heir apparent. Few horses in the history of American racing have made a bigger splash in just two races than has Arrogate. On Sunday, he will take his next step in his march to stardom as the heavy favorite in the San Pasqual. The race will also serve as his prep for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup. Let’s take a look at what awaits him Sunday at Santa Anita…
5) Arrogate (1-5) – It’s almost hard to believe that the strapping son of Unbridled’s Song was making his stakes debut just two starts ago. The poster boy of coming a long way in a short amount of time, Arrogate has quickly proven himself as one of the premier horses in the world with dazzling performances in both the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Both wins were fantastic, but it was in the latter where he proved his heart by beating the very best. He is the class of the field by a long way, but on the other hand, this race does raise a few warning signs for an upset. First off, this race is only a prep. It is merely a bridge between much more important races, and therefore it would be understandable if he was not completely geared up – although he continues to look monstrous in his workouts. Secondly, both of his big wins came at ten furlongs. On Sunday, he will only get 1 1/16-miles to uncork his best. With a serious speed horse in front of him, this might not prove to be the easy task that most are expecting. Will Need ‘A’ Game
4) Midnight Storm (7-2) – The Phil D’Amato trained son of Pioneerof The Nile has always been a talented horse, but he’s taken things to a new and exciting level the last six-plus months. He’s won four of his last five, all in graded stakes, with his only loss coming up in a bang-up third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Perhaps more important to the proceedings on Sunday, he proved that he can be just as dangerous on dirt, as he is on turf, with a romping victory over Point Piper five weeks ago in the Native Diver Stakes. With a high turn of early speed, and a fondness for the distance, he looms a serious threat to the soon to be three-year-old champion. If Arrogate is not fully cranked up, this one could get very brave down the lane. Dangerous Competition
2) Accelerate (10-1) – After the top two, it’s hard to get excited about anyone else in the field, but the truth of the matter is that this improving son of Lookin At Lucky is quite a nice horse. He has good tactical speed, and runs well every time. His last two, winning the Los Alamitos Derby, and running third in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, aptly demonstrate that he belongs in graded stakes racing. As for his chances on Sunday, I cannot see him winning, but he has earned the shot. Solid and Improving
1) Prospect Park (20-1) – A decent enough horse on dirt, I am still very much awaiting his return to the grass. That is where I believe his future to be. The best hope for him on Sunday, as I see it, would be to collect third-place money. Like Him Better on Grass
3) Dalmore (20-1) - Since winning the Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes in July, he has had his chances. He was understandably overmatched in the Pacific Classic, but losses in winnable races like the Super Derby and the Zia Park Derby give me little confidence against the likes of Arrogate. Not Against These