Arlington Million Preview Day Analysis & Pick 4

American Derby (Race 5) 1 1/8 miles Turf

In a race without any proven speed and several seemingly evenly matched runners, this year’s renewal of the American Derby could come down to a chess match between the riders. While the two-time winner on the grass, (6) World Approval, looks to be a legitimate favorite, coming in off of two very competitive performances against one of the division leaders, Divisadero, I have landed on the Chicago-based (4) Nun the Less as my top pick. The son of Candy Ride ran two very good races over Arlington’s Polytrack last summer while sprinting for trainer Chris Block, which makes me believe he not only likes the Arlington Park surroundings, but that he also has enough early speed to be within striking distance early off what will likely be a slow pace. He used this recipe to cook up a nice win over the Keeneland turf two starts back. Like in that victory, he now has a few months between races, and has been working well locally. After the top two, no less than four of the other five horses in the race would come as no real surprise to win the prep for the Grade 1 Secretariat.

Arlington Handicap (Race 6) 1 3/16 miles Turf

As you can tell from my Stars and Stripes analysis below, I do expect The Pizza Man to end up in that one, but he is one of the three horses cross-entered in both. If his connections do decide to go Arlington Handicap instead, I would consider him as the one to beat. Having said that, the Arlington Handicap still has a solid field, and still might be the afternoon’s best race. There are a number in here worthy of earning a spot into next month’s Arlington Million, topped by the dangerous Canadian (2) Up With the Birds and the consistent (9) Middleburg. The former will be making his second start since a failed trip to Japan, but more importantly his second start for trainer Graham Motion. His first race for the top trainer in the Dixie was solid, as was his Arlington Million effort of last year. He should be rolling late, and is my top pick.

Modesty Handicap (Race 7) 1 3/16 miles Turf

Admittedly, there are a number of horses that could come out on top in Saturday’s Modesty, but happily, the filly I like the most is a 15-1 bomb on the morning line. (6) Lots o’ Lex comes in off a dynamite win over the Arlington turf course, in which she blitzed the field with a 23-second final quarter. Obviously, this spot is much tougher, but the improving four-year-old did hold her own for the most part against some very tough mares in her first three graded stakes attempts. With good tactical speed and an excellent local prep, I expect her to run a big race in this wide-open heat. Among her many logical challengers, I like (7) Overheard next best. The Woodbine shipper never fails to fire, and now five, she should be ready to show us her best in her third start of the year for trainer Malcolm Pierce.

Stars and Stripes (Race 8) 1 1/2 miles Turf

Say it with me -- In The Pizza Man I trust. Yes, I am a big fan of both pizza, and The Pizza Man; and why not? The six-year-old gelding is 13-for-20 lifetime on the grass, including an excellent 8-of-11 mark on Arlington’s beautiful turf course. After a solid 2014 season, I expect this to be the year when the entire nation gets to learn about the exploits of one of my personal favorite horses. (2) The Pizza Man is not only an excellent Chicago-based turf horse, I truly believe he deserves mention among the best turf horses in the nation. Look for him to handle the stretch-out, and this field, as well. The 12 furlongs is a bit of an unorthodox prep, but look for this race to have him fit and ready for his first shot at the Arlington Million. Of the rest I like the distance proven (5) Xtra Luck next best. After that, the new gelding (7) Afortable rates a long shot chance.

Pick 4 Play ($71)

Pick 4 50-cents - 4,6 / 2,9 /2,4,5,6,7,8,10 / 2  = $14

Pick 4 50-cents - 4,6 / 1,2,5,9,10 / 6,7 / 2,5,7 = $30

Pick 4 50-cents - 1,3,4,5,6,7 / 2 / all / 2  = $27