Arlington Million 2017: Odds and Analysis

If you are a fan of turf racing, it does not get any better stateside than the International Festival of Racing at Arlington Park. Saturday's big card will be topped by Arlington Million 2017, and supported by several other excellent graded stakes races on the grass. While the Beverly D., Secretariat, and American St. Leger are important races in their own right, it will be the 35th edition of the Million that takes center stage on the beautiful Arlington turf course. Going back to the famous wins of the legendary John Henry, the Arlington Million has always been a gold standard in American turf racing. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the ten-furlong Breeders' Cup Turf  'Win & You're In'  race, which has attracted a competitive field of 13, including my projected odds and analysis ...

5) Deauville (4-1) – The Aidan O’Brien trained son of Galileo made a very favorable impression in two races in the States last year at three, winning the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, before finishing right in the thick of things in the Arlington Million. Since then, the classy colt has proven a consistent threat in top class racing in England and Ireland. He's a deserving favorite this time around, and the fact that Ryan Moore makes the trip to ride makes him all that more formidable. His good tactical speed also plays well over the Arlington turf course. The only negative that can be said is that he's only won twice in the last two years. Still, he's the one to beat. Classy European Returns

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13) Mekhtaal  (5-1) – This French-based raider has proven to be the real deal the last few years, finishing first or second in six of his nine lifetime starts, while facing formidable turf competition. Don't be fooled by his sixth-place finish in his latest, as that came against some of the best turf horses in the world, and he was done no favors by the lack of the early pace in that one at Ascot. Before that, the son of Sea The Stars more than held his own against top competition in France. Frankie Dettori will come to Chicago for the mount, and together they rate a big chance to pick up the trophy. Topnotch in France

9) Scottish HAS BEEN SCRATCHED Like Mekhtaal, he comes directly out of an off the board finish in the Group 1 Prince of Wales's at Royal Ascot. Note that it was his first start of the year. The two years prior to this, he was consistently a factor against solid competition all over the globe, including an excellent second-place effort in Australia to close out 2016. We know he can ship, he adds Lasix, and his rider, William Buick knows the way to the winner's circle in the Million. All in all, the Godolphin charge has plenty to like. Completes Formidable European Trio

4) Ghost Hunter (12-1) – A consistent winner throughout his career, this seven-year-old son of Ghostzapper has never been better than he is right now. His three turf races this year are all excellent, missing to Ascend by a half-length, before defeating Ring Weekend at Delaware, and winning the Arlington Handicap last time. Obviously, this is his toughest test yet, but the Jaimie Ness gelding is going very good right now, and might just surprise. Won the Local Prep

12) Ascend (8-1) – The Graham Motion charge may have had his moment in the sun when winning the Grade 1 Manhattan on the Belmont Stakes undercard. His return race, when stretched one furlong further for the Bowling Green at Saratoga, ended with disappointment as he hung to finish fourth as the favorite. He's back at ten furlongs for this one, but also against a little tougher competition. Jose Ortiz will ride for the third straight time, so he should know just when to make his move. He's certainly in with a shot. Grade 1 Hero Two Starts Back

10) Beach Patrol (6-1) – The game winner of the Secretariat last year has been knocking on the door all year, without busting through. In fact, since last year's win at the Festival, he has run well without reaching the winner's circle in six straight. His tactical speed and class will once again give him a shot at the head of the stretch, this time with Joel Rosario in the saddle, but I have to wonder if the closing kick of the Euros will once again leave him as a bridesmaid. Has Not Been Winning

11) Divisidero (8-1) – A two-time Grade 1 winner, it remains to be seen how his come from behind style will fare at Arlington, where the early fractions are often slow. Having said that, the Buff Bradley runner has proven to be a reliable and classy stretch runner. It is worth noting that all three of his graded stakes wins have come at Churchill Downs, and he has yet to find success at ten furlongs in three tries. Still, if the leaders are backing up just a little down the lane, he is one of the likely candidates to come running. Will Need Late Charge

8) Kasaqui (10-1) – As close as the gray, Argentine import came to winning the Million last year, it's tough to have him this far down the list, but that's how deep this year's field is. His form coming in is actually quite similar to 2016 when he finished second at 12-1. His record at Arlington is also strong. Having said that, he could only manage third in the local prep last month, and I do believe that this one is quite a bit tougher. I respect him, but will look elsewhere. Just Missed Last Year

7) The Pizza Man (12-1) – Much as I'd like to pick my favorite turf horse of the last several years to win his second Arlington Million, the belief here is that the trusty son of English Channel, now eight, does not quite pack the punch that he used to. Still, I have little doubt that he is good enough to compete, and the fact that top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has agreed to ride him for the first time should help him stay a little more involved early. A good performance is expected, but not a winning performance. Former Champ

2) Oscar Nominated (20-1) – It's been a long time since his last win, which came in the Dueling Grounds Derby nearly a year ago, but he has been knocking heads with quality competition ever since. Last year, he came up a little short here in the Secretariat, and this field is only that much deeper. This would seem an unlikely spot for the son of Kitten's Joy to break his losing streak. Fifth in the 2016 Secretariat

6) Fanciful Angel (30-1) – The gray son of Dark Angel has had some tries against graded stakes company overseas in the past, but has yet to find any success. His last two make me believe that ten furlongs is within his scope, but from a class standpoint, he seems a cut below than the other horses coming to America. It's worth noting that the Botti charge does get Lasix for the first time on Saturday. Least of the International Set

1) Oak Brook (30-1) – Twice a longshot recently over the Arlington lawn, this well-bred gelding seems to have found career best form. First in the Black Tie Affair, and then second in the Arlington Handicap, has now earned him a birth in the Million. He deserves to be a longshot once again, but his tactical speed and improving form at least merits him a punter's chance. Pace Factor on the Rail

3) Enterprising (30-1) – A winner of nine turf races in his career, the six-year-old gelding put back-to-back graded stakes wins together earlier this year in New Orleans. He was unable to carry that good form over into May and June, though, and now, after a brief freshening, it's hard to know what we will get on Saturday. Even on his best, though, he likely falls a little short against this salty bunch. Last Two Not Great