An Unpopular Opinion on Fillies in the Kentucky Derby

I am fully aware that what I am about to say will be met with skepticism, disapproval, and downright derision.

Now that it looks perfectly clear that the only race at Churchill Downs in which Unique Bella will be pointing for is the Kentucky Oaks, I wonder if the nation's second best three-year-old filly shouldn't be given a chance to run in the Kentucky Derby. 

No, I am not joking. I would love to see Clearsky Farms and trainer, Simon Callaghan take a long look at running Abel Tasman in the Santa Anita Derby next, rather than the Santa Anita Oaks.

First off, let me say that I did, like most everyone, think that Unique Bella was clearly best in yesterday's Santa Ysabel Stakes. I also believe that she is the best three-year-old of either gender. Which, of course, makes Abel Tasman's performance as supporting actress all that more impressive.

When jockey Joe Talamo hopped off her yesterday, it almost sounded like he was the winning rider. "I was so proud of my filly," he said. "I think she's definitely going to move forward from here," added Talamo.

Keep in mind, while Unique Bella was making her third start of the year yesterday, this was Abel Tasman's first. The Kentucky-bred daughter of Quality Road should only improve off the experience. Out of a Deputy Minister mare, Vargas Girl, I also have strong hope that she will be able to handle more distance than the 8 1/2-furlongs in which she has already proven to be very capable.

Remember how she finished last year -- finishing extremely strongly to win the Grade 1 Starlet going away at the wire. It was her third straight come-from-behind win, and at three different tracks. After yesterday's very good return race, I am quite convinced that she is a serious racehorse.

Unique Bella is going to the Kentucky Oaks, and that is fine. The hugely talented filly should be where her connections want her to be. I do think this opens the door for other horses, though. Frankly, it was a door that didn't need to be opened any wider, what with the physical questions of McCraken and Classic Empire, and the disappointing results of Irish War Cry and El Areeb.

While every year, twenty horses enter the Kentucky Derby, the truth of the matter is that the majority have little to no chance of winning. That group would also not be good enough to win the Kentucky Oaks the day before. Fillies and mares have proven over the years to be able to compete with the males -- the good ones anyway. 

If the connections of Genuine Risk or Winning Colors had not taken a shot, we would never have known just how competitive top females can be in the Kentucky Derby in the modern era. I know what you're thinking -- what about Eight Belles? While tragic, the reason she broke down, after finishing second, was not because she was a filly. 

Can Abel Tasman win the Kentucky Derby? We will never know without giving her a shot. After yesterday, I certainly would consider her.

One last point to be made here ... If Unique Bella is indeed the best three-year-old in the country, then perhaps the Santa Anita Derby is a more winnable race for Abel Tasman than is the Santa Anita Oaks, and if she runs big in the Santa Anita Derby, what would come next?