Alabama Stakes: Full Field Analysis
It doesn’t get much more historic than the Spa’s Alabama Stakes. First held in 1872, it is the longest running stakes race for three-year-old fillies in America. The summer classic for the girls has been run continuously since 1913. Contested at ten furlongs since 1917, the Grade 1 affair at Saratoga often goes a long way in deciding things when a champion of the division is voted upon at the end of the racing season. With this division still very much open for the taking, the 2015 edition of the Alabama, with a $600,000 purse, should be no different. Let’s take a look at the field, including rider assignments, from the rail out …
1) Danette (Junior Alvarado) - Somehow still eligible for ‘non-winners of one other than’, this Keith Desormeaux-trained miss should not be dismissed despite her lifetime 1-for-14 record. After finally breaking her maiden in her 13th start, the daughter of Curlin ran a decent race in the nine-furlong Coaching Club American Oaks, rallying for 4th, beaten just over two lengths at 38-1 in the Grade 1 race at Saratoga. Considering her winning percentage, it is hard to have too much faith in her actually winning on Saturday, but I will say that I believe that she was born to run ten furlongs, and has never been better. She has competed with this type before and is a good candidate to hit the board at nice odds in here.
2) Curalina (John Velazquez) - After four straight wins including the Grade 1 Acorn, and an adjudicated first in the Coaching Club American Oaks, Curalina has become the hot horse among the sophomore dirt fillies. It’s true that she needed the stewards help to take home first money in her last, but in my opinion, she probably would have won if not for the late interference from I’m A Chatterbox. All this being said, she is a deserving favorite to win her third straight Grade 1 race, and a major danger to anyone trying to beat the chalk. I, however, will be one of those trying to beat the favorite on Saturday. While I have a lot of respect for what she has accomplished lately, it has been an awful lot in a short amount of time. Her last race was by no means an easy one, so I could easily see her coming up a little short and a little tired as she stretches out to the classic distance of ten furlongs. Like I said, try to beat her at your own peril, but I definitely think others will offer more value.
3) Lovely Maria (Kerwin Clark) - There can be no two ways about it; the stylish winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks laid an egg last time in the Delaware Oaks. After looking so good in her two big wins in Kentucky, it really did not look like the same filly jogging home fifth in the Grade 3 race. Trainer Larry Jones blamed the effort on a virus going through the barn, that she was not completely over. He also says that it was only a prep for this. Both of those things will need to be true for her to snare her third Grade 1 of the year on Saturday. If you can draw a line through the Delaware race, there is plenty to like, including a favorable running style, but she beat me in the Oaks, and I will need to see her beat me again after the loss at 3-10, before fully buying into her as the best of the division.
4) I’m A Chatterbox (Florent Geroux) - Her effort in the Grade 1 Mother Goose was almost too good to lose. Determined and full of grit, she did not want Curalina to go by her even if that meant a little drifting out into that one to get the job done. Pushed early by Conquest Eclipse, who ultimately finished a distant last, this three-time stakes winner this year at Fair Grounds, has been a model of consistency for trainer Larry Jones in 2015. While she was beaten by her stablemate in the Kentucky Oaks, she likely was hampered by shuffling too far back in the big field early. On Saturday, she should be able to be on or near the lead of a moderate pace. My guess is the bettors assume that Curalina beats her without much problem going to ten furlongs, and let her go off at attractive odds, but I see it a different way. She’s classy, game, and tactical, and good enough to win this one after being DQ’d in the Coaching Club American Oaks. I’m A Chatterbox will be my top pick.
5) Embellish the Lace (Javier Castellano) - The daughter of Super Saver has only started four times lifetime, and most recently faltered when well-backed and part of a solid pace in the Mother Goose. Though clearly talented, as her back-to-back wins before her stakes debut point out, I once again believe she is up against it against this field and at this distance. As pointed out, there is not a ton of speed in here, so she likely will serve as the pacemaker before the real running begins. Sometimes those do surprise, but a win here would be a big surprise indeed.
6) Include Betty (Drayden Van Dyke) - Death, taxes, and the late rally of Include Betty. These are three things that we can all count on. Sometimes that rally carries her to victory, and sometimes it does not. In the recent Coaching Club American Oaks, it only got a third place check, but the time before in the Mother Goose, her glorious late run saw her easily power to her first Grade 1 victory. Like Lovely Maria, she is owned by Brereton Jones, but is conditioned by Tom Proctor. For me, the question becomes -- will she get the needed pace to see those in front of her softened enough where her late run becomes a winning one? My guess is no, the Alabama will not have the necessary pace for her to make it to the winner’s circle. Having said that, she definitely scares me at ten furlongs.
7) Sweetgrass (Chris Landeros) - The Ian Wilkes-trained late runner has been knocking on the door of a graded stakes win in the Midwest of late, but now steps up to Grade 1 racing at Saratoga. Still relatively lightly raced, it looks like she has a nice future in front of her, but I cannot get behind her in this particular spot. A confirmed late runner, like a few others in here, I simply do not think she is as classy as the filly directly above her. And since I am not picking Include Betty, you know I will not be expecting a Sweetgrass win in the Alabama.