2016 Preakness Stakes: What the field may look like

Nyquist (6-5) – Doubters have been silenced. The Kentucky Derby victory, his eighth in eight starts, was both decisive and fast. The fact that Exaggerator made up a lot of ground in the stretch seems less than scary when you consider how tough and game this champion is. Even at 12 furlongs, I have my doubts that Exaggerator would ever have been able to get by. He comes to the Preakness Stakes, as several other Derby winners have in recent years, as strictly the one to beat. More of the same will usher him into the Pimlico winner’s circle, and move him one step closer to joining American Pharaoh as the only Triple Crown winners of the last 37 years. It would seem that the unique test of the Belmont will be the bigger danger to Nyquist than the Preakness.

Exaggerator (4-1) – OK, the world is well aware that he is now 0-for-4 against Nyquist. There is really no shame in that, but his connections are not running for second. The good news for the fans of the grand looking son of Curlin is that ever since switching to a big closing style of running, the talented colt has taken things to a new level. His performance in the Kentucky Derby was top notch. All things considered, it was only a shade behind the winner’s performance, in my opinion. In the Preakness, he gets a little less distance, but to his favor, there could be an even more contentious early pace. After his last two, he is clearly the biggest danger to Nyquist moving one step closer to a Triple Crown.

Gun Runner (10-1) – What a nice horse he is. In every single one of his races he has put himself into the perfect winning position as the field entered the stretch. Make no mistake, that is a valuable and rare ability. He looked Nyquist in the eye in the Derby, and the champion proved a little too good. The same thing may well happen in the Preakness, but the slightly shorter distance probably is a good thing for the son of Candy Ride. If the top one falters at all, Gun Runner will be one of the ones in with a shot to capitalize.

Stradivari (10-1) – The most impressive young horse yet to run in a stakes race, very well may be the best of the Pletcher group which also includes the Tampa Bay Derby winner, Destin, and the Wood Memorial hero, Outwork. Coming off a pair of runaway victories, not to mention how good he looked working at Churchill, I am quite sure that this horse is the real deal. The problem is, he will be jumping up from the minor leagues all the way into the World Series in this one. I think he might be good enough to run a big one, but I cannot support him for the win just yet.

Collected (15-1) – Throw out his fourth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes, and the Bob Baffert charge would come to Pimlico off three straight impressive stakes wins. For what it’s worth, I did not like his trip at Oaklawn Park, so I really do believe he is a nice horse. A nice horse who can have a great future beating up on Grade 2 or Grade 3 types. Against the best, I think he falls short of putting a real scare into them.

Sharp Azteca (20-1) – After running 44 seconds in the first half mile of the Pat Day Mile, I really did not expect him to go on and hold on for the win. He did it easily, no less. Clearly, he has some quality, and he will come into the Preakness on a roll. Can he carry his speed another three-sixteenths against the likes of Nyquist? That is an extremely tough ask, in my opinion. He could be the speed of the speed, though.

Uncle Lino (20-1) – His California form against specifically Exaggerator was flattered by that one’s big run in Louisville. He also came back to run a good race after the Santa Anita Derby, handling lesser in the California Chrome Stakes. Having said that, he still looks a cut below the best of this bunch. At the very least, the son of Uncle Mo should make his presence known in the early stages of racing’s middle jewel.

Cherry Wine (20-1) – On the one hand, the late-running son of Paddy O’Prado has run nothing but good races since being switched back to dirt. The problem is, that good third in the Blue Grass may not look quite so good after watching Brody’s Cause and My Man Sam come back to finish in the middle of the pack in the Derby. Perhaps there is still some improvement in his tank, but he will need it to compete with the Preakness big boys.

Lani (20-1) – The mystery horse of the Kentucky Derby actually ran a pretty good race. Just watch him on the far turn, and you will see how much ground he lost to the field, before finishing up well to end up ninth of 20. Is that enough to get excited about him at Pamlico? Probably not, but with an American experience under his belt, and hopefully a better trip next time, you never know.

Fellowship (20-1) – After three good late running third place finishes in graded stakes races at Gulfstream Park, including Nyquist’s Florida Derby, he was a little disappointing in the Pat Day Mile, where he finished fourth for his new barn. The good news is that the extra three-sixteenths of a mile, and the second turn should only help him in Baltimore. A fast pace would not hurt him either.

Awesome Speed (20-1) – The local Federico Tesio winner via disqualification is a consistent sort, who does seem to have a future in middle distance races against horses a cut below the best. Unfortunately for him, Nyquist and Exaggerator are the best of the division. At best, the Alan Goldberg runner would seem to be playing for a minor award only.

Laoban (30-1) – The Derby had a maiden, so why not the Preakness? But unlike Trojan Nation, this Eric Guillot trained runner has plenty of stakes experience. More importantly, though, he has the kind of speed to add to a pace that is looking pretty contentious. As far as breaking his maiden in the Preakness, it seems almost as unlikely as Trojan Nation was to win the Derby.