2016 Kentucky Derby - Zipse's Big Ten
For a trainer who has won as much as Kiaran McLaughlin has, including the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup with Invasor, it is interesting to see how giddy he is about this undefeated son of Tapit. With each passing race, I am seeing more and more why he has the veteran trainer so excited. After a flawless juvenile season in New York, Mohaymen took it up a notch in South Florida. In the Grade 2 Holy Bull, he faced the challenges of a new track, being between horses for the first half of the race, and a Grade 1 winner in Greenpointcrusader. To say the handsome gray succeeded in meeting these challenges would be an understatement. Not only was he up to the test, but he did it with such ease, that you have to wonder just how good he could become. If he stays healthy, I have little doubt that he will arrive in Louisville as a huge threat to give his connections their first blanket of roses in the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
After pressing a contested pace the whole way and staying on very well in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, the strapping son of Eskendereya demonstrated a new and valuable talent when back in Southern California for the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. Relaxed by his experienced pilot, Gary Stevens, in the early stages, the Bob Baffert charge came running late. With this new found and learned versatility, I see Mor Spirit as free to get better under the tutelage of his Hall of Fame duo. Class may be still an issue with some, but I think the quality of his last two makes me believe he fits in with this crop, with improvement still likely. This Saturday's Robert B. Lewis should be a test he passes with flying colors.
Trainer Dale Romans is taking it slow with this son of Giant's Causeway, and why not? Lacking early speed, he comes with a big rush late in races which carried him to a win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, and a solid third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. All this after not breaking his maiden until mid-September as a long shot at Churchill Downs. Tampa Bay for their Derby, before back to Keeneland for the Blue Grass, will be the path back to Churchill Downs for the confirmed late runner. Keep in mind that running only twice before the Derby has been a successful trend of late. He's recently returned back to training, and there is still much work to be done, but if the leaders get leg weary on May 7, this one could be the main beneficiary.
It might seem odd to have this one so high on the list, having been beaten by Nyquist, Swipe, and Brody's Cause (twice), but I truly believe the best is yet to come for the son of Curlin. He has already demonstrated the ability to overcome trouble, finish strongly, and get to the wire first. With his classic pedigree, I would expect improvement at three, and there are plenty of excuses from his solid, but not championship juvenile season. He often found trouble, had an untimely sickness, and ran a sneaky good race to close the year in Louisiana. The first needs to be overcome, but his ability to get through trouble could end up being a virtue. The second is a 'who knows' situation on how much it slowed him down in the biggest races of the fall, but it certainly did not help. And finally, his race at Delta Downs was against a dead rail. That victory over Sunny Ridge is better than first glance. I'm interested to see what he can do against the champ in the San Vicente.
Much has been made about my, and many people's belief that Nyquist will struggle past nine furlongs. The truth is we just don't know. Having said that, there are enough red flags in his pedigree to worry. Combine that with the dismal record of juvenile champions and Breeders' Cup winners over the last 40 years, to see why the unbeaten Eclipse Award winner is not a little bit higher on my list of horses most likely to win this year's Kentucky Derby. With that said, I have great respect for Nyquist -- I mean how could you not? He passed every test in 2015, and he did so in the biggest races. His best race in my opinion was in the Breeders' Cup, where he was wide and farther back than usual. Reports have been nothing but good so far from the O'Neill barn, as far as his current condition, so I expect him to come out running in the San Vicente. The expected showdown with Mohaymen in the Florida Derby should be a pip.
Yes, I know that Rick Porter and Jerry Hollendorfer have been united and strong in stating that the filly will not run in the Kentucky Derby. The truth is, though, on talent alone, she would be in my top two, so it seems silly not to have her on this list all together. Let's she how she looks in Saturday's Las Virgenes. If she is the dominant force in that race that she was in all of her four wins last year, I think it is reasonable and possible to believe that her experienced connections will at least consider a run in the Santa Anita Derby. From there, all bets would be off. Don't confuse my words to believe that I am saying that she should be Derby bound. The decision belongs with her connections, but if this great talent does end up on the Derby trail, I am ready to consider her one of the horses to beat, because she is that good.
So what if he came from an unexpected place -- this horse can run. I knew that in following his perfect juvenile season. He flashed serious talent in five straight wins as a two-year-old, but I needed to see him go two-turns, before getting excited about him as a Derby contender. He took care of that Saturday with an absolute runaway in the Cal Cup Derby. Now I want to see him take on open company -- and you know what? I'm really not all that worried about him being able to step right up into top company. He's just a runner, and as a bonus, Smokey Image also has the breeding to handle the classic distances just fine. California Chrome comparisons beside, the winning rider of the last two Triple Crown winners is excited about this one, and I think Victory has good reason to be. Beware to all he faces in the San Felipe, this Cal-bred is for real.
Well, on the one hand he was beaten like a kettle drum in the Holy Bull, but all in all, it wasn't such a bad effort. First race of the year, part of the early pace where he likely is not best, and facing the top three-year-old in the country, in my opinion. He stayed on well, and actually finished with good interest. All this makes me believe that he will be better for the experience. I still love what I saw in the Champagne, and believe he can do similar on a dry track. Like I said before the Holy Bull, don't give up on any horse that does not win, and it sure appears that this one is the best of the rest. He might need to pick his spot to find a little easier race than the Florida Derby. A little improvement, and a little confidence boost, and this one could be a horse to watch in Kentucky.
Tell me what Mo Tom has done wrong in his career? The answer, of course, is virtually nothing. Quietly, the Tom Amoss colt has climbed the latter of the best horses in the crop since a debut at Ellis Park last September. He overcame trouble, before getting up in that one, and he has been solid ever since. He may not have faced many of the big boys yet, but he has consistently run against good horses in every start since his maiden. In each of those starts, he has come with a strong rally rivaling that of Brody's Cause. Already a stakes winner at Churchill Downs, he put in another strong effort at Fair Grounds to win the Lecomte going away. He figures to be the horse to beat on the New Orleans trail as it really starts to heat up, and could well arrive to Louisville as one of the more likely horses to be running late. Pedigree is a question, but so far, so good.
Going out on a bit of a limb with this one, but I believe the Southwest Stakes pointed gelding is going to prove to be a good one. His record is a bit of an enigma right now, as he is bred for distance, but has only won sprinting so far, while having failed around two-turns in the Delta Downs Jackpot. I am willing to forgive that fifth place effort, having come only 15 days after his career debut. He looked the part of a very good horse in both his career debut at Churchill Downs, and then again in his 2016 debut at Oaklawn Park. With only a pair of wins in non-stakes company, and in one-turn races, he will need to take several moves forward to compete on the first Saturday in May. Having said that, considering the talent he has flashed, and the sturdiness of his pedigree, I am willing to believe he has a real shot to begin making positive progression starting on February 15. His crafty trainer is saying all the right things -- bring on the Southwest.