2016 Kentucky Derby Under the Radar Spotlight: Adventist

When looking for an under the radar horse for the 2016 Kentucky Derby, there needs to be a certain amount of belief in untapped potential. Maybe that potential can be tipped off in a rousing maiden win, or perhaps it can be witnessed in a nightmare trip, where everything goes wrong, and still the horse in question is not far from the winner at the finish. In the case of Adventist, both would be true, and for both of those reasons, I have chosen the son of Any Given Saturday as this week’s Under the Radar Spotlight horse.

Let’s start at the beginning. Adventist (Any Given Saturday--Sharp Minister, by Deputy Minister) was bred in Kentucky by Monticule. He was snatched out of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall 2014 Yearling Sale for $100,000. Not only does the bay colt have plenty of both brilliance and distance influences within his immediate family, such as Distorted Humor, A.P. Indy, Forty Niner, and Deputy Minister, but he also comes from a broodmare who has already produced a multiple stakes winner of nearly a million dollars, in Isn’t He Clever.

Owned by Treadway Racing Stable, and trained by Leah Gyarmati, Adventist did not begin his career until six days before Christmas at Aqueduct. He came out ready to run. Thanks to a solid grouping of workouts, he was sent off as the 9-5 choice under Irad Ortiz, Jr., and the odds turned out to be a bargain. The six furlong maiden was a one-horse show. He showed enough early speed to be right there sitting comfortably off fast early fractions before zooming right by and taking command at the top of the stretch. Adventist poured it on from there, eventually crossing the wire more than 11 lengths ahead of the runner-up.

If his career debut was the definition of simple, his next start was anything but. Moved right up into graded stakes competition for start #2, Adventist met a field of more experienced Kentucky Derby hopefuls in the Grade 3 Withers. With Ortiz choosing to ride the heavily favored Flexibility for Chad Brown, Kendrick Carmouche got the call on the impressive debut winner. Things did not go well right from the get go.

Squeezed in the first few strides, Adventist quickly dropped to last. Not happy with that position, he became a bit of a handful for his new rider heading into the first turn. He was green as he moved closer to the leading pack, before going a little sideways to the right at the start of the turn. He lost a bunch of ground, but still continued on after the leaders. Carmouche was able to settle him down on the backstretch, but he remained widest through the entire race. Still in a good position turning for home, he did everything wrong down the stretch -- Shying from the whip, running greenly, ducking in and out, bumping Flexibility. Somehow, after all that, he still finished well.

Not well enough to win, but he did outfinish Flexibility, while closing in on the winner, Sunny Ridge late. In the end, he was third beaten less than two lengths. Mind you, most of his trouble was self inflicted, but I can only imagine what he would have done with a clean trip in the Grade 3 stakes race.

OK, so clearly Adventist still has a ton of improvement needed to put a scare into the likes of Mohaymen and Nyquist, but only two races into his career, I very much like what I see. Even if he cannot rise to the very top of his crop in the next two months, I do see a young colt with a world of potential. Potential that could be realized as soon as Saturday when he makes his third lifetime start in the $400,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.

Since the Withers, he has come back with three more solid workouts for Gyarmati. That, in combination with all he learned in his eventful stakes debut, anything but improvement in the Gotham would be a surprise. With the likes of Sunny Ridge, Shagaf, Rally Cry, Matt King Coal, and Conquest Big E also expected for Saturday’s feature, Adventist will need to improve and step up in his third lifetime start. The odds should be right, and chances are good he will have a better trip than last time.

Will it be enough to win the Gotham, and become Kentucky Derby bound? I give Adventist a real shot to do just that.