2016 Belmont Stakes: Early Analysis and Odds
Exaggerator (6-5) – Long considered a colt near the top of the division, the son of Curlin has really taken things up a notch the last three races. You could argue that the two, of those three, that he won, both came on a sloppy track, but judging from his Kentucky Derby run, you would have a hard time convincing me that he would not have won the Santa Anita Derby and Preakness on a fast track, as well. Off the first two legs, Exaggerator is clearly the horse to beat in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. If he runs like his last few, he should win. Having said that, the Belmont is a different animal. There is a reason that American Pharoah has been the only Belmont winner of the last ten years to have run in both the Derby and the Preakness. The series can take its toll, and 12 furlongs at Belmont Park is not kind to a horse coming in just a little bit tired.
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Stradivari (6-1) – I believe it made plenty of sense for his connections to want to wheel him back in the Belmont after a good run in the Preakness. Despite his lack of seasoning he ran a very good race in the Middle Jewel -- probably even better than it looks on paper. With that experience now under his belt, he comes to the Belmont as not a chaser of a fast pace, but rather a talented horse who could lope along through moderate fractions, before sprinting home. Easier said than done, I know, in what will be only his fifth lifetime race, but right now I consider him the most dangerous, from a deep cast, to the top one.
Suddenbreakingnews (6-1) – The stretch run of the Kentucky Derby was a nice showcase for the late running ability of this Donnie K. Von Hemel-trained ridgling. After being left with a little bit too much to do, he finished with a flourish, and only missed getting up for third by a single jump. He gives every indication of being a distance lover, which is obviously a good thing for the Belmont, as is the rider switch to Mike Smith, who has won two of the last six editions of this classic. Smith might have his hands full in getting the right position, though, as horses who come from the clouds generally do not win the Belmont.
Destin (8-1) – I did like the Tampa Bay Derby hero better before I knew his stablemate Stradivari was Belmont bound. Still, the talented full brother of Creative Cause is a danger on June 11. He came into the Kentucky Derby a fresh horse, having not run for eight weeks. That fact actually could be a whole lot more important for the Belmont than it was for the Derby, a race in which he ran pretty well to finish sixth. Now he is likely the most rested horse of all for the final leg. Look for him to be stalking his fellow Todd Pletcher trainee early, and if the pace is relaxed, he could have a big say in things the final quarter mile.
Brody’s Cause (12-1) – Well, looking at his past performance line from 2016, it would be easy to call the son of Giant’s Causeway an enigma. Was the impressive Blue Grass victory an aberration? I still don’t think so, and his Dale Romans-trained stablemate, Cherry Wine, did goose the quality of the Blue Grass with a fine runner-up finish in the Preakness. I, like many, wished he did more than his seventh in Louisville, but on the other hand, perhaps he ran well enough to think with just a little improvement, he could win something like the Belmont. Also, the Derby is just that kind of race where a lot of really good horses have not run their absolute best. I expect an improved effort at Belmont Park.
Cherry Wine (12-1) – I liked him going into the Preakness, and obviously I was pleased with the way he performed to grab second-place money. In the Belmont, I do not like him nearly as much. I believe his solid run at Pimlico was aided by both the track condition and the strong early pace. Likely not to get either in the Belmont, I would be surprised to see him fare so well in the final leg.
Lani (15-1) – I have decidedly not been on him in either the Derby or the Preakness, but the Belmont could be his best shot yet. Trained a different way than American runners, he could be the singular horse on this list best prepared to go 12 furlongs. I liked the way he finished both of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Having said that, they were both belated bids, so I am still not really sure just how close he is in talent to the top one on this list.
Creator (15-1) – A bit of a tough nut to crack. He was rapidly improving through a win in the Arkansas Derby, but then what can we really draw from his troubled 13th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby? Is it a draw line through it type of performance, or was it one that even without the trouble, would have only yielded an eighth-place result or so? Also, can he win a race like this without a fast pace? All fair questions, but there could be enough talent here to still have some belief in him against the highest level.
Governor Malibu (20-1) – The hard-knocking NY-bred seems to be getting better with every race, and considering how consistent he has always been, that means he is coming into the Belmont the right way. He made up a good bit of ground over the track in the Peter Pan against the talented Unified, and has the pedigree to be able to run long. Granted this is a serious step up in class, but sharp, good experience at Belmont, and bred to stay the trip – This Governor seems like a viable longshot contender to me.
Wild About Deb (30-1) – I thought the lightly raced shipper from California had a big shot going into the Peter Pan, so I was not overly thrilled with his third-place finish. The Belmont is only that much tougher. He could be a horse who improves quickly for trainer Phil D’Amato, but still, he is hard to recommend in here.
Trojan Nation (30-1) – I did not like this maiden heading into the Kentucky Derby, and I saw nothing in 16th-place finish to change my opinion heading to the Belmont Stakes.