2015 Kentucky Derby Watch: Blofeld

Overview - Owned by Glencrest Farm and JSM Equine, and trained by Todd Pletcher, Blofeld recently checked in as the 40-1, eighth choice among single horses, on the first 2015 Kentucky Derby future wager pool offered by Churchill Downs. This status as a longshot is uncharted territory for the son of Quality Road, who has been heavily backed at the windows in each of his three starts. In his short career, Blofeld has already demonstrated the speed to put away solid competition while sprinting, and the class to draw away from good horses when stretched out to a flat mile. With further development this winter in Florida, it would be easy to imagine, much like his namesake from James Bond fame, Blofeld on a path towards world domination come next spring.

Race Record (3-3-0-0) - Blofeld began his racing career in a 5 furlong maiden special weight on August 14 at Saratoga. Sent off as the 1-2 favorite in his career debut, the grey colt sat in second behind the eager early leader, Signature Cat. He steadily cut into a five-length advantage, before wearing down his speedy competition in the final furlong to win by a length.  The final time for the five panels was a snappy :57.83. Future graded stakes winner, El Kabeir finished third, some 3 ½ lengths behind the stylish winner. With a nice first performance under his belt, Blofeld left Upstate New York with bigger targets in mind.

Off the sharp maiden score, Pletcher stepped Blofield right up into graded stakes racing for his second start in Belmont Park’s Futurity Stakes. The historic race, now run at six furlongs, looked quite a bit like his maiden breaker. Blofeld looked like he might go right after the early lead, but took back just a bit to watch the front end proceeding from third, before launching his bid turning for home. The early leaders, Hebbronville and Cinco Charlie were both game, but Blofeld would not be denied from the rail, and edged away by ¾ of a length to make his first stakes try a winning one.

Making his third start, at third different track, Blofeld went after another Grade 2 in Aqueduct’s Nashua Stakes in early November. Demonstrating the ability to be patient early, the 9-10 favorite and regular rider John Velazquez were content to wait in second, well off the winging early speed of familiar rival, El Kabeir. Waiting until the far turn to make his move, Blofeld methodically cut into that one’s lead and had made an ideal striking position, by the time the field approached the stretch. From there it was all Blofeld, and he hit the wire a full five lengths ahead of an alone in second El Kabeir. The performance, over a slow track labeled as muddy, was soon flattered when that one came back to wire the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in his next start.

Pedigree - A $225,000 Fasig Tipton two-year-old in training purchase, Blofeld is a son of the top first-crop sire, Quality Road. A top runner himself, Quality Road had a strong mix of brilliance and stamina within his bloodlines, and on the racetrack, he could be a monster. A multiple track record holder from 6 ½ to 9 nine furlongs, only a pair of quarter cracks kept him from being one of the favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. An impressive winner of 8-of-13 on the track, Blofeld’s sire is off to a flying start so far at stud. To date, Quality Road has already had 13 winners, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner, Hootenanny. Bred in Kentucky by Keats Grove Farm, Blofeld’s female side includes the familiar class, but to this point, Kentucky Derby unlucky, Storm Cat. Blofeld is one of four winners out of the Storm Cat mare, Storm Minstrel. The grey mare was a durable, multiple stakes winner. She did her best racing sprinting, despite having strong stamina influences of the Pleasant Colony-His Majesty-Ribot line on her bottom side. Her dam, Colonial Minstrel was a multiple graded stakes winner of 10-of-24 lifetime.

Strengths - As a horse who has never come close to losing, while racing against legitimate competition, there is no telling how good this one could be. Much like his mercurial sire, Blofeld has already proven to have the tactical speed to put himself in excellent position early in his races. It’s an aggressive racing style that earns plenty of race wins, money, and attention, and if he takes to Gulfstream Park anything like his sire, he could be the dominant sophomore this winter in Florida. This would place him on a fast track to Churchill Downs, and a chance to go after a Kentucky Derby score, something which Quality Road never had.

Weaknesses - While the stretch out from a pair of fast sprints to the eight furlongs of the Nashua looked as effortless as a walk in the park, it should be noted that Blofeld has yet to experience two-turns in a race. While the breeding suggests that he will be able to succeed around two-turns, until he does it in a race, it will remain a question mark. Then from there, he will need to breakthrough at the classic distance of ten furlongs, which was a hurdle his sire could never successfully navigate.