2014 Kentucky Oaks Preview: Can Untapable Be Stopped?
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With the field for the 2014 Kentucky Oaks set, let's take a look at each of the 13 fillies vying to win the female version of the Kentucky Derby, from the rail out ...
| Post | Silks | Horse | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1 | Please Explain | Jose Lezcano | Tom Proctor | |
Live Longshot (50-1) | For whatever reason, the daughter of Curlin threw in a real stinker in her last race, as the favorite in the Grade 3 Fantasy. If you can forgive that non-effort, the Tom Proctor trainee looms a serious threat. I believe she was best the time before in the Honeybee, nine furlongs figures to be right up her alley, and plenty of speed in here should set up her late run perfectly. | |||
| 2 | Ria Antonia | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert | |
Contender (10-1) | In my opinion, this is the best looking 3yo running this week at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Oaks is more than a beauty contest, though. She did show marked improvement last time after finishing way behind Untapable in her seasonal debut, and she also figures to benefit from a strong pace much like she did in last year's Breeders' Cup. All indications point to her thriving physically since arriving in Kentucky. | |||
| 3 | Sugar Shock | Calvin Borel | Doug Anderson | |
Pretender (12-1) | A model of consistency so far this year in Arkansas, she figures to be one of several fillies looking to be on or near the early lead. While she has looked a little better in each and every start, I have little confidence that she can handle the step up in class and distance that she will see in the Oaks, especially considering the pace scenario. | |||
| 4 | Rosalind | Joel Rosario | Ken McPeek | |
Contender (8-1) | The most consistent closer in the field, she looks to take advantage of a contentious pace that could leave many in the field feeling leg weary through the final quarter mile. If she is indeed as good on dirt as the BC Juvenile Fillies would make it appear, she is primed to make her presence felt in a big way late. | |||
| 5 | Thank You Marylou | Julien Leparoux | Mike Maker | |
Live Longshot (30-1) | Bred to stay the trip, this lightly raced filly could not handle Rosalind in the Ashland, but remember that was her first try around two-turns. It is a good bet that the daughter of Birdstone will improve this time, and unlike the filly that beat her last time, she has enough tactical speed to stay in touch early, before kicking in her rally late. | |||
| 6 | Kiss Moon | Victor Espinoza | David Vance | |
Pretender (30-1) | She's been unsuccessfully chasing Sugar Shock of late, and unlike Please Explain, I see far less upside. Her last was an improvement, but I fear it still falls well short of what she will need to compete for the win in the Kentucky Oaks. | |||
| 7 | Fashion Plate | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | |
Pretender (6-1) | I hope the morning line odds, pegging her as the second choice, are correct, because I do not like her chances in here. In her last few wins, she has caught paceless races completely unlike what she will see on Friday. In a race with plenty of talented early speed, she is simply not the fastest of the fast, in my estimation. | |||
| 8 | Aurelia's Belle | Channing Hill | Wayne Catalano | |
Live Longshot (50-1) | After chasing the ill-fated Onlyforyou at Florida, she finally got a field she could handle at Turfway Park. The dirt form is there, so I am hopeful that she can handle the track at Churchill. The question is whether she can handle the class. At odds anywhere near those on the morning line, she is worth a shot. | |||
| 9 | Unbridled Forever | Robby Albarado | Dallas Stewart | |
My Top Pick (12-1) | Full disclosure ... this one was my early Kentucky Oaks pick ever since she broke her maiden at Churchill Downs last fall. While she was no match for the favorite last time, I believe it truly was a race she needed, and a means to an end. That theory will be tested here and now. Look for her to sit a mid-pack trip early, and then pounce on the far turn. On a track that we know she likes, Unbridled Forever may be ready to emulate dear old mom in winning the Kentucky Oaks. | |||
| 10 | Empress of Midway | Corey Nakatani | Doug O'Neill | |
Pretender (50-1) | This daughter of Empire Maker has not done too much wrong in her first three career starts out West, but the jump up in class for the Oaks likely will be just a little too much for this one to handle. She's one to keep an eye on down the road. | |||
| 11 | My Miss Sophia | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | |
Pretender (8-1) | The talent for this one is undeniable, but with other speed in here ready to push her early, and coming from the 11-post, she will need to work a whole lot harder than she's had to in her last two romps. I do believe she is the most talented front runner in the field, but I have a feeling it will still not be enough to overcome it all in only her fourth lifetime start. | |||
| 12 | Got Lucky | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | |
Live Longshot (20-1) | For the most part, this one has been chasing ghosts this year, but with a pace scenario likely to be far different in the Oaks, it could be time for this well bred filly to turn things around. Hot rider, John Velazquez should show plenty of patience early, before seeing if this one has what it takes to kick it in on the far turn, just like he did a few years ago with Animal Kingdom. | |||
| 13 | Untapable | Rosie Napravnik | Steven Asmussen | |
Beatable Favorite (4-5) | Her two races this year have been nothing short of fantastic, so it would come as no surprise if she raced to the lilies on Friday, but as the heavy favorite, I think there is reason to try to beat her in here. Rosie will need to work some magic right out of the gate, because getting hung out on the first turn from her outside post, could be enough to get her beat against the toughest field she's ever faced. If she does work out a good trip into the first turn, she will need to run as big as her pair in New Orleans, because she'll need to chase quality speed, and then try to hold off some formidable late runners. | |||
Pink & White chart for the Oaks Preview created by Candice Curtis
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