2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile Preview

For the first time in six years, the Breeders’ Cup Mile will not be graced by either Goldikova or Wise Dan. Don’t cry for the $2 million race, though, as what this field lacks in star power, it makes up for with depth and competitiveness. As such, the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile promises to be an excellent betting affair. Fresh off the printer, let’s take a look at the pre-entries of one of Saturday’s best races.

Tom’s Tribute - A virtual unknown until a listed stakes win at Santa Anita this time last year, the four-year-old James Cassidy charge has improved leaps and bounds to come into the Mile as perhaps America’s best hope. Competitive in graded stakes racing early in the year, he has taken it up a notch of late with three stakes wins in his last four starts. In fact, his only defeat of the last six months came after being steadied and then flying late to finish third beaten just two lengths by Obviously and Summer Front, a pair he has since beaten. He has the tactical speed to find a good spot early, and the late kick to get to the wire first. Off his current local form, he is my most likely winner.

Toronado - Europe’s best older miler has taken a few lumps from three-year-olds in his last two starts, but even in defeat the four-year-old son of two-time Breeders’ Cup winner High Chaparral has run with an excellence that makes him a deserving favorite next Saturday. He’s only run three times this year, so the mile specialist should have plenty left in the tank for his first trip over to America. It should be noted that prior to the Wise Dan injury, and all the rain at Ascot, he was on schedule to run in last week’s QE II on British Champions Day. He may have still come over, but the Mile may not have been the number one thing on his dance card. Still, if he fires his best shot, his class may prove irresistible.

Anodin - The improving full brother to Goldikova has been running against Europe’s best milers this year, and has been holding his own. A trio of excellent efforts in succession this summer against Cirrus Des Aigles, Toronado, and Kingman point out his class. Don’t worry about his fifth place finish last time in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, as his troubled trip left him with no chance. His trainer believes he will take to the American style of racing nicely, and if nothing else, Anodin needs to be respected as the charge of Freddy Head, who holds a remarkable record in this race as both a jockey and trainer.

Obviously - Like Tom’s Tribute, he will be defending his home turf in the Mile. A Californian middle distance turf specialist, the speedy son of Choisir has been winning races in bunches ever since being imported from Europe nearly three years ago. He has tested Wise Dan and the Breeders’ Cup waters in each of the last two years with a third and a fifth to show for his trouble. His last two starts at Santa Anita point out his affinity for this course, and if this field, sans Wise Dan, leaves him alone up front for too long, he becomes a huge danger to take them wire-to-wire in his third go round.

Karakontie - Perhaps the top three-year-old in the field, this Japanese-bred, French trained colt was a model of consistency in each of his first six starts, including a pair of Group 1 wins at Longchamp. His last two efforts did not go well, but in the first he stretched out another 5/16th’s of a mile, and in the latter, he had a horrid trip. Draw a line through those two, and he becomes a very realistic contender if he takes well to the Santa Anita trip.

Seek Again - On his best day, this Juddmonte/Bill Mott runner has given Wise Dan everything he wanted all the way to the wire at Churchill Downs, and overcame a tough trip to nail Grand Arch in the Grade 2 Fourstardave. In two of his last three starts, though, he lacked the killer instinct to get the job done in a pair of tough spots, which makes me wonder if he has what it takes to win a race as big as this. On the plus side, he is one-for-one in California, so maybe Mott will have him primed to run his best in the Mile.

Kaigun - This Mark Casse gelding has developed nicely from a Queen’s Plate afterthought into a very good middle distance turf horse. In fact, he’s never run a poor race on the grass in eleven tries. On the other hand, his three turf wins have come against horses not as good as he will face in the Breeders’ Cup, and while he has tried tougher, Kaigun has never proven that he can handle true Grade 1 competition.

Grand Arch - Another consistent gelding, Grand Arch has been very involved in three of his last four races against strong competition, each time as a long shot. His Woodbine Mile performance being the only recent disappointment. Having said that, like Kaigun, he may be just a notch below the very best. Although, I would not argue with anyone who wanted to use him in the exotics, especially considering his last effort when second to Wise Dan in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

Mustajeeb - From the strong combination of Shadwell Stable and Dermot Weld, this three-year-old has never failed to cash a check in seven lifetime starts. He was no match for Europe’s best, Kingman, three starts back, but bounced back with a Group 3 win at Ascot, before a good second back in Ireland last time. Not the best European in the field, but good enough, that if he runs his best, he could become a real player at attractive odds.

Trade Storm - This one doesn’t quite stack up to the very best in Europe, but the six-year-old is an old pro that can get the job done if the competition is not the very best. His Woodbine Mile win was his biggest yet, but he might find the Mile competition a little tough. On the plus side, he has consistently traveled well, including nice one-mile performances the last two years in Dubai and Canada.

Summer Front - An extremely consistent miler from the Christophe Clement, he has won 8-of-17 lifetime on the turf. While his consistency is a great attribute, it also points out that he has never been able to get over the hump against competition like this. In each of his last two starts his solid rally was not quite good enough to really threaten the respective winners, Obviously and Tom’s Tribute.

Veda - The only female that lists the Mile as first preference, Veda has been a good three-year-old filly in her native France in her short career. She is a mile specialist, and her last start, when she faced males for the first time, may have been her best yet, but the second place finish did not come against the best Europe has to offer. Further improvement could make her an interesting long shot.

Other horses pre-entered for the Mile, but did not draw into the main field, or list the race as second preference include: Dayatthespa, Fiesolana, Sayaad, Tourist, Silentio, Big Bane Theory, Bobby’s Kitten, Kiyoshi, Better Lucky, Rock Me Baby, Kingsbarns, Mr. Commons, and Handsome Mike.