Weekend winners, losers and in-betweeners on the Derby trail

After Saturday’s Florida Derby and the UAE Derby, there now are only five major preps for the Kentucky Derby left on the grizzly road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

Three of those will happen this weekend, when Keeneland will host the Blue Grass Stakes, right here in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. The Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial will also be held. All three will be on April 7.

The following week, on April 14, the Arkansas Derby will be conducted, and the finale will be the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

Doesn’t seem possible, but we are ready again for another great Kentucky Derby event at one of the world’s greatest, most historic, and most accommodating racing venues – Churchill Downs.

After last Saturday, we did have a couple of winners that have moved themselves and their connections into prominent consideration for the “Run for the Roses” on the First Saturday in May.

At the same time, a few have eliminated themselves from serious consideration, as well.

And, like most everything else in life, there are a few that still have some work to do to earn their spot in either one of those two starting gates that will house – for a couple of minutes, any way – the next field for the Derby. 

Let’s take a closer look at last weekend’s “Winners, Losers, and In-Betweeners”:

Winners

1. Mendelssohn: After what this Scat Daddy colt did over in Dubai on Saturday, you would be crazy not to elevate this talented runner into your Kentucky Derby equation, and not consider this one a “winner.” After all, the colt dispatched of all his opposition in the G2 UAE Derby early, and often. And, with every stride, he seemed to both pull away from any would-be rival, and impress everyone watching. By the end of this race, turned workout, Mendelssohn was ahead by an easy 181/2 lengths. And, what made it even more dominating? It could have been by more, if jockey Ryan Moore had asked for more. To be honest, the victory truly wasn’t all that surprising, even though the colt was making his debut on a dirt surface. You see, Mendelssohn has been highly touted for a long time now. When he was just a yearling, he was paraded into the Keeneland sales ring with a lot of ribbons and bows by his consignor, Clarkland Farm. By the time the hammer fell on the sale, he had been purchased by M.V. Magnier for a tidy sum of $3 million. He was able to get a lot of that money back for his owners and investors just a year later – in 2017 – when he won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar. The winner’s share of that purse was $550,000. Now, after Saturday’s overwhelming performance, it certainly appears that the colt is just gearing up. But…Yep, there is a but here…Aidan O’Brien – long considered to be one of the greatest trainers of all time – has tried to win the Kentucky Derby five other times. The closest he has come, to date, is with Master of Hounds, who was 5th behind Animal Kingdom in 2011. And, if you will remember back to last year, for just a second? That’s about how long the highly acclaimed Thunder Snow – who won the Dubai World Cup on Saturday – lasted in the 2017 Kentucky Derby before he began to bronco-style jump and buck his way to one of the most interesting, embarrassing, and fun performances in the history of the historic race. So? Well, there has never been a winner of the UAE Derby to ever win the Kentucky Derby. Will Mendelssohn be the first? In a year when you have both the connections of highly-touted colts Justify and Magnum Moon trying to snap the “Apollo Curse,” then I guess an argument can be made for the theory of “Why Not?”

2. Audible: After Saturday’s Florida Derby, Audible – a son of Into Mischief – has now race five times in his life. He ran third on debut last September at Belmont Park, when he ran only 6 1/2 furlongs. Since then, when he was stretched out to a mile or more, he has ripped off four straight wins. And, although he hasn’t beaten anybody by 18 1/2 lengths like Mendelssohn, Audible has been really untouchable, as well. In fact, he has been spectacular. Over those four wins, the closest any horse has come to beating him was in his maiden victory, when Audible pulled away by 1 3/4 lengths. Over those four wins, Audible has combined to win them by a total of 20 lengths. On Saturday, against arguably his toughest field of competitors to date, he roared from the back of the back to run off to an easy 3 length win over the inexperienced Hofburg. It was another 7 3/4 lengths back to the third place finisher, Mississippi. The most impressive thing, though, may have been how Audible did it. On a racetrack surface that has played to front-end speed all meet, Audible came roaring from well back in the field. And, he burned the speedsters with nothing less than late gas. But…Yep, there is a but here, too…Since the Derby was inaugurated back in 1875, the “Run for the Roses” has been captured by a Kentucky-bred Thoroughbred 108 times. That’s out of 145 times. That equals 76.1% of the time. For the record, only three horses bred in another state other than Kentucky have been able to win the Kentucky Derby since 2000. They were California Chrome in 2014, Smarty Jones in 2004 and Funny Cide in 2003. Which brings us back, full circle as the way the Derby will be run, to our point. The only New York-bred to ever win the Kentucky Derby was Funny Cide. It’s happened once. In the history of the race. Can it happen again? Well, if Mendelssohn can be the first to come from Dubai to win the Derby, I guess one could argue. If Justify and Magnum Moon can break the “Apollo Curse,” I guess one could argue. I guess there can be an argument made for the theory of “Why Not?”

3. Historians & Statistical Analysts: Not since 1882, when the great Apollo won the Kentucky Derby to become the second of nine geldings to ever capture the “Run for the Roses,” has a horse been able to win the first leg of the Triple Crown having not started a single race as a 2-year-old. For those counting, that has been 135 years. But this year, two of the more promising colts on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” are the highly-acclaimed Justify, from the barn of Bob Baffert, and Magnum Moon, the impressive winner of the G2 Rebel Stakes and the likely favorite for the Arkansas Derby. History or History-making? No horse has ever won the UAE Derby and come to America to capture the Kentucky Derby. The great Aidan O’Brien is 0-for-5, and he is considered to be one of the game’s greatest conditioners – of all time. This year, it certainly appears that he is headed West with the great Mendelssohn now. History or history-making? In the history of the Kentucky Derby, a New York-bred has captured the “Roses” one time. Once. That was Funny Cide, right? History or History-making? One of my majors in college was history. I’m going with history.

In-Betweeners

1. Hofburg: Going into the Florida Derby on Saturday, Hall of Famer trainer Bill Mott spoke glowingly of this well-bred son of Tapit. Said the colt deserved a shot, even though he had only broken his maiden in the race before at Gulfstream on March 3. And, the colt had managed to accomplish that feat by only half-length and at odds of nearly 8-to-1 after balking to load and acting nearly the fool throughout the paddock and post parade proceedings. Yet, on Saturday, the horse backed up “The Talk.” At about the same odds that he went off at in the maiden victory, Hofburg managed to close well enough to run second to Audible, despite running wide throughout much of the race. Sure, he was beaten by 3 lengths, but it was a pretty good run for a horse coming right of a MSW to face Grade 1 Stakes company. The second place points that he garnered for his efforts are enough to get him into the Derby, and it appears that Mott is going to take a shot. I guess one had better look up and see when was the last time a horse with only one win to his resume has won the Kentucky Derby. History or history-making?

2. Points Are In Demand: With only 5 key Derby preps remaining on the schedule, the tracks hosting the Blue Grass Stakes, the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Arkansas Derby and the Lexington Stakes are sure to get some invaders, shippers, full fields, and competitive races. Right now, the horses that appear to have a spot in the 2018 Kentucky Derby locked up are the following: 1) Audible (110 points); 2) Noble Indy (110 points); 3) Mendelssohn (100 points); 4) Bolt d’Oro (64 points); 5) Enticed (63 points); 6) Bravazo (54 points); 7) Promises Fulfilled (52 points); 8) Magnum Moon (50 points); 9) Runaway Ghost (50 points); 10) Quip (50 points); 11) Lone Sailor (42 points); 12) Rayya (40 points); 13) McKinzie (40 points); 14) Hofburg (40 points); 15) Good Magic (34 points); 16) Solomini (34 points); 17) My Boy Jack (32 points); 18) Flameaway (30 points); 19) Firenze Fire (29 points); 20) Free Drop Billy & Catholic Boy (both at 24 points). That ranking list is surely to change dramatically this weekend and next. So…what happens if you are sitting at the bottom of the list? Or what if you are the connections of the likes of Snapper Sinclair, Combatant, Blended Citizen, Reride, Strike Power, Mississippi, Instilled Regard, Greyvitos, Kanthaka and others? Time to ante up and move up. Or time to move on to Plan B. 

Losers

1. Race Fans Expecting Rematch Between Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie in the Santa Anita Derby: The news leaked out this weekend that trainer Bob Baffert will not be entering McKinzie in the Santa Anita Derby for a rematch with the brilliant Bolt d’Oro. Seems as if McKinzie has an issue with a hind leg that is concerning enough that Baffert has decided to skip the race at Santa Anita. Time will tell if the colt will need more time, or if Baffert can train him into the Derby. After all, it appears that McKinzie has the points to safely make the field. But it sure would have been fun to see the second leg of what could develop into a furious rivalry that would match the likes of Affirmed-Alydar, or Alysheba-Ferdinand. Guess we will have to wait. But if that does develop? It would be History-making.

2. Catholic Boy: It was reported after the Florida Derby that this son of More Than Ready had bled “a significant amount,” as reported by the The Daily Racing Form. That is disappointing and disheartening news, for sure, and now all you can do is wish, hope and treat him for the best. But…His training regiment has been very suspect. You just can’t train up to a Grade 1 race off a farm track. Just can’t.

3. Cincinnati Reds: Bryan Price is the worst manager in the game. Too many examples in Sunday’s game to point out each, but he is perfect. Reds off to 0-3 record to begin the 2018 season. Way to go, Cincy fruit magnate Bob Castellini. Stick to selling bananas.