McLean: Game Winner guides my Kentucky Derby 2019 rankings
We are at that time of year when things should begin to clear up along this long and tumultuous 2019 Kentucky Derby trail We are at the stage in the path when the forks in the road simply turn into curves. We are at the point when the potholes should begin to be filled. We are at the point where the questions turn into answers.
It must be a late spring.
So much for answers, right? Each week, it seems, we take another detour, side road, and U-turn as we speed toward the first Saturday in May.
And, each week, it seems, we are driving faster and faster down a one-lane highway at midnight — with the lights off.
Several weeks ago, on Feb. 2, the 29-1 longshot Harvey Wallbanger upset the bandwagons along with the apple cart in winning the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Things have only gotten crazier since then.
A month later on March 2, Code of Honor — who had made more news by the races that he had missed more than the races that he had made — got a perfect trip to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park at odds of nearly 10-1.
A week later, on March 9, Tacitus — who had only broken his maiden, and hadn't raced yet at age 3 — won the Tampa Bay Derby (G1) at odds of nearly 9-1.
The very same day, Haikal — a minor stakes winner — upset the highly-acclaimed Instagrand in the Withers Stakes at odds of nearly 5-1.
A week later, on March 16, Long Range Toddy upset the previously unbeaten Improbable in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. He was sent off at nearly 9-1 odds.
Later the same day, in the second division of the Rebel, champion Game Winner — a perfect 4-for-4 — lost to the front-running, free-wheeling Omaha Beach. He was nearly 5-1 at post time..
Throw in the mix that Santa Anita canceled the San Felipe Stakes altogether, sending Derby prospects scattering all over the country in search of a prep race and reeling for the lack of a venue to practice.
And…
Now, this past weekend what do we see?
We see the most consistent horse of 2019, War of Will, do his best imitation of the “Twist and Shout” leaving the starting gate in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and watch him stumble to ninth in the 11-horse field. At the end of the race, a 22-1 shot, By My Standards, had captured the major prep. And, at the end, the biggest question was not whether War of Will would be a main contender for this year’s Kentucky Derby. It was whether he would be a contender at all. Only time and healing hands will give us that answer.
Then on Sunday, Mucho Gusto — another major contender from the barn of Team Baffert and the odds-on favorite to capture the Sunland Derby — raced like a horse ready to sprint rather than one prepping for a 1 1/4-mile distance. After setting the early fractions, jockey Joe Talamo was left with a wilting violet in the stretch of the 1 1/8-mile event. Along came Cutting Humor and Anothertwistafate to overtake the lead nearing the wire. Going into the Stakes, Cutting Humor had won a total of one race, and had finished a dismal seventhth in the Southwest Stakes. Anothertwistafate’s resume going in? His only previous run over dirt had resulted in a ninth-place finish.
In other words?
This has been a winter and spring of discontent along the trail.
So, what do we do?
I go down this dark path with the only flashlight that I know.
That is Game Winner.
Just Game Winner.
Despite missing some training time and having to ship, unexpectedly, to Arkansas for the Rebel Stakes, the talented son of Candy Ride missed winning the Rebel Stakes by a whisker and a prayer. A stride past the wire, he was in front. He was just that close to being 5-for-5 and still unbeaten.
He is my flashlight.
He is my roadmap, or, in this day and time, my Google Map.
He is my hope. Still.
Until this week, when we get to watch the Florida Derby (G1). Until, this week, when we hope that logic may prevail. Until this week, when we hope that the lights will get turned back on.
| Horse | Trainer | Last Time | Thoughts |
| 1. Game Winner | Bob Baffert | 2nd in the G2 Rebel Stakes – 1A | Looking Better Every Day |
| 2. Roadster | Bob Baffert | 1st in SA Allowance | Can He Take Big Step Forward in Next Out? |
| 3. Bourbon War | Mark Hennig | 2nd in G2 Fountain of Youth | I got him at 28-1 in the Future Wager |
| 4. Code of Honor | Shug McGaughey | 1st in G2 Fountain of Youth | Big Race This Week / Can He Duplicate Big Run? |
| 5. Hidden Scroll | Bill Mott | 4th in G2 Fountain of Youth | New Rider Must Harness Speed |
| 6. Improbable | Bob Baffert | 2nd in G2 Rebel Stakes 1 | Was 2nd in Rebel Better Than Looked? |
| 7. Omaha Beach | Richard Mandella | 1st in G2 Rebel Stakes – 1A | Game on Front End in Rebel, But Plenty of Speed |
| 8. Haikal | Kiaran McLaughlin | 1st in G3 Gotham Stakes | Gotham Set Up Perfectly / Needs a Hot Pace |
| 9. Galilean | Jerry Hollendorfer | 3rd in G2 Rebel Stakes – 1 | Wasn’t A Bad Effort Facing Open Company / Next? |
| 10. War of Will | Mark Casse | 9th in G2 LA Derby | Lost Footing Leaving Gate / Injured in LA Derby |
| 11. Long Range Toddy | Steve Asmussen | 1st in G2 Rebel Stakes — 1A | Came Running Late / Nice Effort / |
| 12. Sparky Ville | Jeff Bonde | 1st in G2 San Vicente Stakes | What’s Next For This One? It’s Race Time. |
| 13. Instagrand | Jerry Hollendorfer | 3rd in G3 Gotham Stakes | Could Improve Off Last Out / Then What? |
| 14. Tacitus | Bill Mott | 1st in G2 Tampa Bay Derby | Huge Move, but Expertly Ridden |
| 15. Harvey Wallbanger | Ken McPeek | 1st in G2 Holy Bull Stakes | Training Very Well / Can Duplicate? |
| 16. Anothertwistafate | Blaine D. Wright | 2nd in the Sunland Derby | Ran Well / Closed Strong / Better Than Advertised |
| 17. Vekoma | George Weaver | 3rd in G2 Fountain of Youth | Will Need to Pop a Big One in Lexington |
| 18. By My Standards | W. Bret Calhoun | 1st in G2 LA Derby | Came With a Run / Improving at Right Time |
| 19. Cutting Humor | Todd Pletcher | 1st in the Sunland Derby | Don’t Know What He Beat, But Impressive in Sunland |
| 20. Standard Deviation | Chad Brown | 2nd in GP Allowance | Been Working Steadily in South Florida / Ready? |
| Others to Consider | |||
| Signalman | Ken McPeek | 7th in G2 Fountain of Youth | Stablemate Looks Better Right Now |
| Spinoff | Todd Pletcher | 2nd in LA Derby | Made Lead Late, But Couldn’t Hold / Could Improve |
| Sueno | J. Keith Desormeaux | 3rd in the LA Derby | Pushed Pace & Held Strong / Next? Need to See More |
| Somelikeithotbrown | Mike Maker | 1st in G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks | Turf to Poly — Check / Can He Convert to Dirt? |
| Tax | Danny Gargan | 1st in G3 Withers Stakes | Guts Will Be Tested in Next Out |
| Dessman | Bob Baffert | 2nd in Oaklawn Park Allowance | Part of Baffert Deep Bench / Capable of More |
| Roiland | Tom Amoss | 6th in LA Derby | Still Slow to Start / Picked Up Pieces / Next? |
| Aquadini | Dallas Stewart | 2nd in FG Allowance | Well Bred / Developing Late / Enough Time? |
| Country House | Bill Mott | 4th in LA Derby | Wide Trip, But No Threat in LA Derby / Disappointing? |
| Mucho Gusto | Bob Baffert | 3rd in Sunland Derby | Set Fractions, But Faded Severely in Stretch…Worries |