McLean: 4 Kentucky Derby 2019 tosses already emerge

By now, you probably know who and what is going to show up on the top of my pop chart for the 2019 Kentucky Derby considering the names have been about the same for some time now. Truthfully, I'm not expecting dramatic changes exiting Saturday's trio of major preps, either. 

Cream, you know, always rises to the top. The reason that is an “old saying” is because it has been true for a long time.

Yet, there is something new to share in this week's rankings, and the news is that the winner and runner-up in the Florida Derby (G1) this past Saturday will not appear anywhere in my Top 20.

Oh, I acknowledge that both the winner (Maximum Security) and the runner-up (Bodexpress) now have the points to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. But in my view, neither of them have the game to win the most prestigious race in the history of the sport. For me, the Florida Derby just gave a bunch of people sunburn and heartburn.

More on that later.

And the other news is that the winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) — By My Standards — and runner-up Spinoff won’t get much consideration, and none of my betting money when it comes Derby Time in about a month’s time, either. For me, the Louisiana Derby was a Mardi Gras hangover and Bourbon Street blunder.

More on that later, as well.

But…

There’s always a “but,” right?

There are several horses that finished well behind all four of those just named that are still very much in my mind, in my plans, and on my grid for the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby.

And, for me, there are plenty of good reasons for their inclusion and consideration over the previously mentioned major prep winners and runner-ups.

First, let’s take a deeper dive into the Florida Derby, which was held at Gulfstream Park this past Saturday.

Quite simply? It’s a total toss out.

When the wind in South Florida comes roaring in off the Atlantic, like it did on Saturday, the sandy surface of that track turns drier than normal, and with that, becomes much faster than normal. It favors speed over any other running style.

Sometimes, the track gets so speed-biased, in fact, that the only horse that stands a chance to win is the one or ones on the lead.

Such was the case this Saturday. Such was the case in this Florida Derby.

Oh, the duo of Maximum Security and Bodexpress may turn out to be nice horses. But I don’t think they will turn out to be Kentucky Derby-winning horses.

Maximum Security started the year winning a $16,000 claimer. Bodexpress hasn’t won a race yet. Not the kind of resume that I am looking for when trying to piece together a horse that can beat 19 others in a 1 1/4-mile race that will include many graded stakes winners in the mix.

One of those  that they will most likely face in the Derby is Game Winner — who just so happens to be owned by the same people, Gary and Mary West, who campaign Maximum Security. Between the two of the colts, they have lost only once in nine lifetime starts now. But if they were asked to select only one of the two of them to run in this year’s Derby, who do you think it would be?

Game Winner? Last year’s 2-year-old champ, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner.

Or?

Maximum Security? Winner of the $16,000 claimer on Dec. 20 and two other low-level races before Saturday’s Florida Derby?

My edge goes to the former. Not the latter.

Bodexpress, a 3-year-old son of Bodemeister, has a resume that is even less impressive. In five lifetime starts, he has three seconds. Not once has he finished a race in front.

So it begs the question now. How many maidens have ever won the Kentucky Derby? How many maidens have ever run in the Derby?

Well, lucky you. We have the answers. There have been only three maidens to ever win the Kentucky Derby in the past. They are Buichanan in 1884, Sir Barton in 1919 and Brokers Tip in 1933. Since 1937, there have been only nine maidens to have even run in the Kentucky Derby, and the  best finish among them was On The Mark — who ran eighth in 1950. The last time a maiden won the Derby?

Bodexpress won’t get any of my money.

On the other hand, the Florida Derby is not a complete toss out. Despite the horrific track bias toward speed types, I thought both Code of Honor and Bourbon War did plenty enough to push toward a run in the Kentucky Derby. They finished together much as they did in the Fountain of Youth, and if given a more fair track to navigate on Saturday, I think both of them would have swamped the first two finishers out of the boat. Here’s hoping that both Code of Honor and Bourbon War make it into the starting gate on May 4.

To be fair to the Florida Derby, though, the Louisiana Derby was about the same kind of race for me. The winner, By My Standards, just broke his maiden on Feb. 16 at the Fair Grounds. And that was career start No. 4. The runner-up, Spinoff, does have a few more credentials. The son of Hard Spun did run third in the Saratoga Special (G2) last year to the pair of Call Paul and Tight Ten. But there were only four horses in that entire field. Color me skeptical of these credentials as well.

On the other hand, the Louisiana Derby was a complete toss out for the highly regarded War of Will. The son of War Front was a perfect 3-for-3 on the dirt — including wins in the Lecomte Stakes (G2) and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) — before the Louisiana Derby. But soon after breaking the gate, it appeared that the colt — with the talented Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle — lost his footing completely. His back end swerved like a bass fish-tailing on the end of a fly rod. And, the colt never was able to recover or materialize any kind of normal run after that.

Thankfully, after extensive health examinations, it has been determined that War of Will has now fully recovered from that racing debacle, and he has now returned to training at Keeneland. If, indeed, War of Will is the same? Then, he still is the most impressive runner to have competed in the Louisiana Derby. Before and after.

With a month to go, we still have five major Derby preps to go. There is the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the Wood Memorial (G2)  and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) scheduled for this weekend. The Arkansas Derby (G1), and the Lexington Stakes (G3) will be held on April 13. Without a question, any and all of those races could and should add some clarity before we go into this year’s Derby Drama.

Game Winner, Roadster, Haikal, Improbable, Omaha Beach, Galilean, Long Range Toddy — all of whom are rated in our Top 10 — are scheduled to run in those events.

Instagrand, Tacitus, Vekoma, Signalman — all of whom are rated in our next “10” — are slated to run in those races, as well.

Surely, some of them will elevate their games. Surely, the focus will zoom in just a touch. Surely, rhyme will begin to make reason.

But for me?

The news this week is that the Top 2 finishers in the Florida Derby are not newsworthy to me.