Looking at horses in the Paddock is an art

Horseplayers vary on how much we value checking out horses in the paddock before a race. There are some who never visit the paddock and some who won't pick a horse without it. Over the years, I've found that I can only tell if a horse looks really good or really bad. If they are somewhere in between, I'm better off sticking with the analysis I've done on paper. I took my second trip of the year to Oaklawn Park last weekend and took quite a few walks down to the paddock to look the horses over.

I saw a colt I'd decided might regress looking like a prize fighter. He had his ears pricked. His eyes were bright and his coat super-shiny. He tossed his head and swished his tail. So I changed my mind and bet him — and he won. I saw another colt I liked who looked he had a slight limp. As he went around, my husband noticed it, and our friends noticed it. To be fair, the colt might just have a funny walk, but I didn't play him. He wasn't limping when he charged out of the gate first and into a lengthy lead. But he faltered and slowed around the turn, then finished last.

Other than that, I didn't notice anything remarkable in the paddock most of Saturday. That is, until the Spring Fever Stakes.

I studied the form for the race for quite a while before settling on Thirteen Arrows and Haveyougoneaway as the top contenders. I gave a slight edge to Thirteen Arrows, whose trainer, Larry Jones, was at Oaklawn for the first time in several years. Thirteen Arrows appeared on paper to be the speed of the speed, and in the 5 1/2-furlong race, I reasoned that might be the ticket. But Haveyougoneaway had a win over the track, which has been a great indicator of success this season. It was a quality win in the American Beauty, where she fought gamely to defeat the classy Sarah Sis.

Thirteen Arrows' groom put her in the paddock stall facing its back wall. Seems like you don't see this a lot, so I wondered if this was a good or bad sign — or maybe just part of the routine. Maybe it was meant to show off what a perfect rump this mare has. Ha! Eventually, he walked her around and put her back in the stall facing outward. She stood utterly calm, with her ears turned out slightly, making hardly a twitch or movement. Saving it up.

Next to Thirteen Arrows, Haveyougoneaway also stood sweet and still, occasionally cocking an ear toward a noise. She blinked slowly and hung her head slightly low. She looked, well, like she wasn't going to attract any bettors being flashy in the paddock. Also saving it up.

Two other fillies were attracting attention. The filly Thoughtless was wound tight. Her groom walked her with her head bent low and neck bowed. Veins shimmered on her neck as she walked, rocking back and forth against the groom's tight hold. They went round and round in that same pose, Thoughtless breathing loud and rocking. A man next to me said she was running her race right there, expending too much energy. I know that happens, but I wasn't so sure. She looked to me like she might be ready to pop.

Finally, there was High Dollar Woman, whom trainer Steve Hobby had decided to run in the Spring Fever after an allowance race didn't get enough entries. He said in Oaklawn Notes that the filly had breezed repeatedly. “She's training outstanding. It's the only reason I'm doing this," he said. But on Saturday, things were not going well for the filly's 4-year-old debut. High Dollar Woman looked like a High Strung Woman who was not getting her way. She fussed and fought her groom, throwing and thrashing her head. In the paddock stall, she sidled sideways until she was pressed up against the wall. She was definitely using too much energy. I'd wanted to see how she looked and I made my decision. She wasn't a win, and not a place. But I thought by sheer class, even having a meltdown, she might make it for show.

When the bugle sounded for horses to go out onto the track, I headed for the window, decisive. I don't bet trifectas that often, but in this race, with my picks as the favorites, it seemed like the best way to go. I bet Thirteen Arrows over Haveyougoneaway over the field.

And they're off! By the eighth pole, my miscalculation became obvious as Haveyougoneaway caught, then powered easily by Thirteen Arrows. “Don't discount a horse with a win over the track” I mumbled to myself. It's essential to use your own advice.  Close behind the first two was the spring-loaded Thoughtless, completing the trifecta. Unfortunately, almost being right doesn't pay.

And High Dollar Woman? She was spent before she got out there, not running much, finishing eighth in the 9-horse field. Hopefully she got that out of her system and will run better next out. Hobby's goal for her is the $350,000 Grade 2 Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 19. That will definitely be a day we want to reserve our final opinions until checking her out in the paddock.