Champagne: Is Hofburg a single in Thursday's Saratoga late Pick 5?

If you had 15-1 shot Slimey in Wednesday’s eighth at Saratoga, more power to you. I’d have had to hit the “ALL” button to get to that one, even while thinking 6-5 favorite Break Curfew was vulnerable. We press on.

Wednesday’s sequence had several races taken off the turf, and Thursday’s sequence is in danger of that as well. Currently, three of the five races in the sequence are set to be run on the grass. As I did with Wednesday’s ticket, I’ll have horses specified to use in the event of a surface switch. Between the weather and several complex races, this is far from an easy sequence, and I’ll hope to get a $96 (or $90) ticket home.

Race 6: Maiden special weight (older fillies/mares, 1 1/8 M), 4:03 p.m. ET

I’m going three-deep to kick things off. #4 SMOOTH WITH A KICK is your likely favorite, and she’s run three solid races at this level in the past. Two of those efforts came over wet tracks, so we know one of those won’t be an issue, and these connections must be respected.

I’m also using #2 KELLEYCANRUN and #3 HIGHTAILING. The former made a bit of a move when fourth in her debut and stretches out to two turns, while the latter didn’t run well last time out but was second to Dunbar Road back in March at Gulfstream. A return to that form would make Hightailing a player at a bit of a price.

Race 7: Maiden claiming (older horses, NY-bred, 5 1/2 F, turf), 4:39 p.m. ET

If this race stays on turf, it’s a fascinating betting race. As with most races at this level, it’s a mix between horses that have been close while running for a tag and ones that are dropping in from the maiden special weight ranks.

#10 ALPHASTEST and #12 WICKED GRIN figure to take money, but the outside posts are very tough to win from at this route. I’m using them, but without too much confidence given the tough draws. I’ll also throw in #4 BETSY’S BEAU, who drops at second asking and gets to the turf, along with #6 LAUGHING MATTERS, who has stepped forward in a pair of recent turf starts at Belmont.

If we’re rained off the turf, two MTO entrants seem to have the field over a barrel. #13 DEPUTY FLAG would be the main speed, while #16 SEVEN IS HEAVEN lost all chance at the break last time out and would be a major player if he repeats his two-back effort.

Race 8: Optional claiming (3-year-olds, 1 1/16 M, turf), 5:15 p.m. ET

If we’re on the turf for this one, it’s tough to look past the two betting interests that will likely take the most money. The Chad Brown-trained entry of #2 SPIRIT ANIMAL and #2B VALUE PROPOSITION is an imposing 1-2 punch, and #7 OPRY won the Grade 3 With Anticipation here last summer. He could take a step forward in his second start off a long layoff.

I’ll still use Opry if we’re rained off the turf, as he ran reasonably well in his debut on dirt last August. In addition, I’ll throw in the Phoenix entry of #1 KADAR and #1A MAGNIFICENT MCCOOL and MTO entrant #10 TAPIT WISE.

Race 9: Optional claiming (older horses, 1 1/8 M), 5:51 p.m. ET

This is the Thursday feature, and for good reason, as it marks the return of #2 HOFBURG. When he was good last year, he was very good, picking up a pair of Grade 1 placings and winning the Curlin Stakes at this route of ground. If he’s right, he almost certainly wins.

However, I can’t shake the feeling that he may need a race. Trainer Bill Mott is just 1 for his last 17 with dirt routers at NYRA tracks coming off of extended breaks, and this race is clearly not the goal. For that reason, I’m also going to use #6 ROAMING UNION, who returns to a two-turn route of ground. That’s key, as his best efforts have come at similar configurations, and the presence of Hofburg will ensure a fair price.

Race 10: Optional claiming (older fillies/mares, NY-bred, 5 1/2 F, turf), 6:25 p.m. ET

We finish with what figures to be a puzzling race regardless of whichever surface it runs over. I’m going to try to beat #4 FIRST APPEAL, who may very well be favored if we stay on the lawn. The lone field she’s beaten over the past year was a weak group of $16,000 claimers at Gulfstream, and I think her best days may be behind her.

I wish #11 SADIE LADY had drawn better, as she took a big step forward third off the layoff last time out. She figures to be the main speed but may have to burn a lot of energy hitting the front from her outside post. With that in mind, I’ll also be using #3 HIGH JINGO, #7 MAMA MARY, and #8 MERLINS MUSE.

If we go to the main track, I’ll go even deeper (assuming defections are kept to a minimum). The Drawing Away Stable entry of #1 TIMELY TRADITION and #1A HAY FIELD merits respect, and I’ll also use #5 KEPT TRUE, Mama Mary, #9 STONEFACTOR, and #14 CAMORRA. Hopefully, that’s enough coverage in a confounding finale.

The ticket:

R6: 2,3,4

R7: 4,6,10,12 (13,16)

R8: 2,7 (1,7,10)

R9: 2,6

R10: 3,7,8,11 (1,5,7,9,14)

192 (or 180) Bets = $96 (or $90).