Champagne: Weather looms large in Wednesday's Saratoga Pick 5

Wednesday kicks off another week of racing at Saratoga, and unfortunately, Mother Nature has reared her head once again. Heavy rainfall on Tuesday means that turf racing isn’t a certainty, so I’ll be going back to my “rainy day” procedure of suggesting alternate horses in the event of races moving to the main track.

If that happens, it’s a shame. There are some big fields signed on here (especially for the three turf races in the sequence), and that could make the payoff pretty juicy. Here’s how I’ll play it.

Race 6: Maiden special weight (2-year-old fillies, 5 1/2 F), 4:03 p.m. ET

This field consists entirely of first-time starters, which should fascinate any pedigree aficionado. I’m going four-deep, and my top pick actually figures to be a bit of a price. That’s #4 SLAM DUNK, who posted a bullet drill here earlier this month. She fetched $450,000 as a yearling, and while this barn’s horses sometimes need a race, all indications are that she’s a runner.

I’ll also use #2 TULANIAN, #6 FIGURE OF SPEECH, and #7 HALLAJOORI. I can’t fault anyone going deeper than this, as it’s a perplexing start to the Wednesday sequence.

Race 7: Allowance (older fillies/mares, 1 1/16 M, turf), 4:39 p.m. ET

If we stay on turf, this seems like a two-horse race between #2 MASCHA and #8 ALTEA. The former showed talent overseas last year and gets Lasix for the first time, while the latter has run in a few tough spots and should benefit from class relief. Either way, Chad Brown seems very likely to get his picture taken.

If we get moved to the turf, #6 STAY FOND looks tough as a main-track-only runner. However, I also need to use #1 ENGLISH SOUL, who won two stakes races on dirt last year and could be maturing as a 4-year-old.

Race 8: Allowance (older fillies/mares, NY-bred, 5 1/2 F, turf), 5:15 p.m. ET

If this race stays on the lawn, I think it’s the best betting event of the day. There almost certainly won’t be a short-priced favorite, and you’ll be likely to get a square price on whichever horse you fancy.

I’ll be going three-deep. #10 AILISH has a win over this surface, won last time out at Belmont, and figures to be rolling late for Joel Rosario. The post is a killer, but she may be good enough to overcome it. I’ll also use #3 SHORT POUR, who has displayed turf form in the past, and #6 THEATERINTHEROUND, who wired a weaker group last time out at Belmont and has won three of seven lifetime starts.

If we move to the dirt, I won’t make it too complicated. I’ll be using main-track-only runners #15 CATHY NAZ and #16 TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR, both of whom loom large given the relative lack of dirt form elsewhere.

Race 9: Shine Again Stakes (older fillies/mares, 7F), 5:51 p.m. ET

Two fillies figure to dominate the wagering here, and they’ll both be on my ticket. #1 SPECIAL RELATIVITY loves Saratoga and will look to move to 4-for-4 over this surface. It’s certainly a class test, but she’s in strong form for a good barn. In her last race, she topped #2 TALK VEUVE TO ME, who also shows up here. I’ll be using her as well, and while I’m not quite as excited about her as I am the first horse I mentioned, maybe the mud was her undoing last time.

Race 10: Maiden claiming (older fillies/mares, 1 1/16 M, turf), 6:25 p.m. ET

If we stay on turf, I’m going to try to beat #4 MORELIKELYTHANNOT. She drops in class for Chad Brown, but it’s not like the fields she’s run against have been great, and Brown’s class-droppers haven’t been setting the world on fire this meet. Instead, I’ll go four-deep and attempt to get a price home.

I’m using #2 ANDI’S KITTEN, #5 SISTER GEMA, #7 DOWNSTREAM, and #8 TO A FRIEND. To a Friend seems like the horse to beat, but Downstream intrigues me second off the layoff. She gets John Velazquez and will almost certainly be prominent early.

If we get moved to the main track, I’ll also be going four-deep. If that happens, I will use Morelikelythannot, as her dirt race last November at Aqueduct wasn’t bad. I’ll also throw in #3 SIMPLY MISS RED, #6 INTO GLAMOUR, and #10 CAIRO QUEEN.

The ticket:

R6: 2,4,6,7

R7: 2,8 (1,6)

R8: 3,6,10 (15,16)

R9: 1,2

R10: 2,5,7,8 (3,4,6,10)

192 (or 128) Bets = $96 (or $64)