Champagne: Two stakes headline Wednesday's Saratoga Pick 5
Saratoga’s one of only a few places in the world where a weekday late Pick Five sequence could feature two stakes races. That’s the situation we’re faced with Wednesday, as a pair of ungraded, $100,000 events highlight the latter portion of the program.
I found this sequence incredibly challenging. In fact, I’m maxing out my $150 budget, and that’s with a single in the first leg. If you hit this sequence, you’ll likely be rewarded handsomely, and I sincerely hope we’re headed to the pay window after the finale. Here’s how I’ll play it.
Race 6: Mahony S. (3-year-olds, 5 1/2 F, turf), 3:30 p.m. EDT
I thought this was a two-horse race, and I’m opting to single my top pick. That’s the returning #1 UNCLE BENNY, who showed lots of talent as a 2-year-old. He won the Futurity before finishing a tough-luck second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and trainer Jason Servis is one of the best at having a horse ready to go off of a long layoff. I respect #7 ARCHIDUST, who’s in good form for Jorge Navarro, but any step forward by Uncle Benny would make him tough to beat.
Race 7: Claiming (3-year-olds, 6 1/2 F), 4:02 p.m.
I found this race pretty perplexing. It’s tough to trust many of these runners given some of the class drops on display here, and as a result, I’m going four-deep.
#7 LOST IN MANHATTAN is my top selection. He runs for a tag for the first time for trainer Danny Gargan, and his most recent effort at Belmont wasn’t bad (especially given the layoff that came before it). In addition, I’ll also use #3 LIAM LETS GO, #5 BRUSH COUNTRY, and #6 HARDCORE FOLKLORE (the 3-1 morning line favorite). Hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough.
Race #8: Starter allowance (older horses, 6 1/2 F), 4:34 p.m.
This race revolves around one question: How much do you trust #3 CLENCH, the likely favorite? On one hand, he was second behind freakish sprinter Shancelot last time out. On the other hand, he hasn’t won since November, and while he’s run against some decent horses besides Shancelot, it’s not like he’s been run far over his head.
I’ll use Clench, but I need to buy extensive coverage. I’m adding #4 LASER LOOP, #7 CREA’S BKLYN LAW, #8 EL ASESINO, and #9 CREATIVE STYLE. Several of these runners will be juicy prices, so if Clench misfires, we could still be in line for a nice score.
Race 9: Evan Shipman S. (older horses, 1 1/8 M), 5:06 p.m.
On paper, #2 MR. BUFF towers over this field. His last-out win in the Saginaw was very impressive, and it certainly seems like he’s in career-best form. If he runs his best race, everyone else is running for second.
However, there seems to be a lot of other speed horses signed on. If Mr. Buff doesn’t get the lead, or has to work to get to that position, it could set things up for a closer. With that in mind, I’m also using #4 DYNAMAX PRIME and #5 EVALUATOR. I think they’ll both be running well late, and either of those horses coming in would drive the payoff potential of this ticket up significantly.
Race 10: Maiden claiming (older fillies/mares, 5 1/2 F, turf), 5:38 p.m.
If you have a second single (such as Mr. Buff, for instance), you may very well want to buy this race. There isn’t much proven form signed on, and the horse to beat (in my eyes, at least) drew a terrible post.
#10 GHOSTLY BEAUTY was beaten a half-length last time out at Belmont. The winner of that race, Tiple, came back to beat winners earlier this meet, and that day’s third-place finisher, G. T. Sonia, has since come back to graduate. If Junior Alvarado can negotiate a trip from the far outside post, I think she’ll be tough.
However, that post is a real negative. With that in mind, I’m also going to use #1 PARADISE RETAINED, #3 TELETYPE, #6 SHANNON’S GIRL, and #8 SWEET GISEL. Sweet Gisel, in particular, intrigues me at a price. She’s bred up and down for turf and finally gets that surface in her eighth career start. That, combined with what seems like a suspect field for the level, is enough to make her a contender.
THE TICKET
R6: 1
R7: 3,5,6,7
R8: 3,4,7,8,9
R9: 2,4,5
R10: 1,3,6,8,10
300 Bets = $150.