Champagne: Vulnerable favorites in Thursday's Saratoga Pick 5
Thursday’s card at Saratoga is a rarity. Only nine races are on tap, which means the late Pick 5 starts in the same race the early Pick 5 ends. Just because it’s a short card, though, doesn’t mean it’s an easy one. In fact, my $108 ticket does not have a single, and I end by going six-deep in a race where I wish I could afford to punch the “ALL” button.
It’s a tough sequence, and if you hit it, chances are you’ll be rewarded handsomely. Here’s how I’ll play it.
Race 5: Maiden claiming (older horses, 7F), 3:10 p.m. ET
We kick things off with a field of 11 maiden claimers at the tricky seven-furlong distance. I’m going three-deep, but I could definitely see the rationale for using more horses.
#5 SNEAKINESS is a logical, if lukewarm, favorite. He drops down in class after a failed turf experiment and has been gelded since we saw him last. His races two and three back against straight maidens were actually pretty good, and he’s my top pick.
I’ll also use #7 SWICK and #11 COBBLE HILL. The former drops in class and also returns to the dirt, while the latter comes off a long layoff for the Pletcher barn and could be ready to run judging by his most recent half-mile work.
Race 6: Claiming (older horses, 1 1/8 M, turf), 3:42 p.m. ET
Remember when I said stuff about being rewarded handsomely? This race is a large reason why, as I’m not at all crazy about any of the horses likely to take money. I’m going two-deep, and both of the runners I’m using figure to be big prices.
#3 FALSE INFO is my top pick. He drops down in class, has been gelded since his last start, and has run fairly well against better groups in the past. I’ll also be using. #4 MY AMANJENA, who misfired last time out but also gets some class relief. Prior to that race, he hadn’t run a bad race on turf, so I’m more than willing to draw a line through it. If I’m right, and a big price wins, the chances of a large payoff grow much, much higher.
Race 7: Allowance (older fillies/mares, NY-bred, 5 1/2 F, turf), 4:14 p.m. ET
I wish I could provide an edgy stance for the second race in a row, but I can’t get past the two likely favorites. #1 ANDRETTA finally broke through last time out after knocking on the door for a while, and #9 HOLLYWOOD CAT won her 2019 debut at Monmouth and looms large for Jason Servis. This looks like a pretty soft group for the level, so I’ll stick with just those two on my ticket.
Race 8: Union Avenue S. (older fillies/mares, NY-bred, 6 1/2 F), 4:46 p.m. ET
The two inside runners look like the horses to beat in the Thursday feature. #1 HOLIDAY DISGUISE has won multiple races at this level (as well as a Grade 3 last year), but #2 BONITA BIANCA is my top pick. She adds blinkers, cuts back to a distance she prefers, and has a big chance to win this event for the second year in a row.
In addition to those two, I’ll also throw in #4 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE. She hasn’t won in a while, but she does her best running at Saratoga and gets a big rider switch to Joel Rosario. She’s 8-1 on the morning line, and that seems like too big a price.
Race 9: Maiden special weight (older fillies/mares, NY-bred, 1M, turf), 5:18 p.m. ET
Here’s the toughest question of the entire sequence: Do you trust #8 KERRY’S RING? Yes, she’s run well twice at Belmont for a strong barn. However, she was 3-5 in her last start, had no excuse, and was beaten.
I’m using her, but I can’t have any real confidence in a horse that will likely be a short price. My top selection actually breaks to her inside. That’s #7 DOUBLE HAPPINESS, who debuts for Bill Mott. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a stakes-placed dam that has already thrown a stakes-placed runner.
I’ll also use #1 SANDRA’S MINE, #5 MARQUET LEGACY, #11 BELLEZA, and #12 CRESCENT LADY. As I said earlier, though, if you have deeper pockets or a single elsewhere, this isn’t a bad spot to punch the “ALL” button and root for a price.
THE TICKET
R5: 5,7,11
R6: 3,4
R7: 1,9
R8: 1,2,4
R9: 1,5,7,8,11,12
216 Bets = $108.