Champagne: Navigating the Saratoga Pick 5 on Whitney Day
Most of the time, I attempt to put together Pick Five tickets that people with modest bankrolls could afford to play. I have a suggested budget of up to $150 or so that I generally don’t like to approach unless it’s absolutely necessary.
Well, Saturday’s Pick Five is one of those sequences. I’m exhausting all but six dollars of that budget on a $144 ticket, one that does not have a single and ends using two horses that I think/hope can overcome terrible post positions. Here’s how I’ll play the loaded sequence.
Race 7: Lure S. (older horses, 1 1/16 M, turf), 4:31 p.m. ET
Right off the bat, we have a tricky turf race that’s drawn a very good field for the level. I’m going four-deep, and I’m taking a swing against the morning line favorite. #5 SACRED LIFE makes his stateside debut for Chad Brown, but he didn’t really show much overseas, and this is far from the easiest spot for him to turn up.
I prefer another Chad Brown trainee on top. That’s #8 TICONDEROGA, who loves Saratoga and figures to be flying late in a race full of early speed. I’ll also use #2 LUCULLAN, #3 PROJECTED, and #7 VOODOO SONG (who may have needed his last race off of a nine-month layoff).
Race 8: Grade 1 Test S. (3-year-old fillies, 7F), 5:06 p.m. ET
It’s not the greatest year for 3-year-old fillies, but those who could show up for the Test did. I’m going four-deep, which allows me to use the primary contenders. #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS won the Kentucky Oaks, #2 BELLAFINA cuts back to a distance she’s 2-for-2 at, #3 COVFEFE hooked the talented Mia Mischief last time out, and #5 ROYAL CHARLOTTE steps up in class but can’t be ignored given a race shape that favors closers like her.
It’s a fascinating race, and while I wish I could leave a filly or two off of my ticket, I feel a need to use them all. This buys us some security heading into the sequence’s second straight Grade 1 event.
Race 9: Grade 1 Whitney S. (older horses, 1 1/8 M), 5:46 p.m. ET
Similar to the Test, most of the horses that could have shown up for the Whitney did. The morning line favorite is #6 MCKINZIE, and if he’s right, he likely wins. However, he may be slightly better around one turn, so I can’t simply single him and move on.
I’ll also use #4 THUNDER SNOW and #8 PRESERVATIONIST. The former, unlike the probable favorite, may appreciate two turns and an extra furlong coming out of the Met Mile, while the latter romped in the Grade 2 Suburban last time out and appears to be in career-best form.
Race 10: De La Rose S. (older fillies/mares, 1M, turf), 6:22 p.m. ET
I’m using the two likely favorites in here, but my top pick is a bit of a price. That’s #7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS, who relished class relief in an ungraded stakes race last time out. This field is almost certainly a better one, but she’s better around two turns than one turn and was second behind Rushing Fall in last year’s Lake Placid over this turf course.
#8 GOT STORMY and #9 STELLA DI CAMELOT are both logical, and they’re also on my ticket. Got Stormy has run up against some of the top turf distaffers in the country, while Stella di Camelot was a fast-closing third in the Grade 3 Intercontinental and should move up given the added distance.
Race 11: Allowance (older horses, NY-bred, 5 1/2 F, turf), 6:56 p.m. ET
I would feel far more confident in my two horses here had they drawn better posts. Having said that, they certainly seem like the two entrants with the most talent in this event, and I sincerely hope they can work out trips.
#11 THREE OUTLAWS ran well in his first start off of a long layoff earlier this meet, when he rallied to finish fourth beaten just two lengths at this level. He gets Lasix for the first time, and it’s encouraging that Luis Saez rides back. I’ll also use #12 VETERAN’S BEACH, who seems like the probable favorite. He was second in that aforementioned race and boasts a win at this route.
THE TICKET
R7: 2,3,7,8
R8: 1,2,3,5
R9: 4,6,8
R10: 7,8,9
R11: 11,12
288 Bets = $144.