Champagne: Navigating Thursday's tricky Saratoga Pick 5

“They’re off. You lose.”

So ran the script for Wednesday’s late Pick Five at Saratoga. I singled Uncle Benny, who stumbled badly out of the gate in the Mahony Stakes and lost all interest. Things went from bad to worse when the rest of my ticket came in, giving me another entry in my personal diary of bad beats. There’s not much a handicapper can do about all of this except sigh and move on, so that’s what I’m doing.

To be honest, there’s not a lot that I feel very confident in on the Thursday card, and my $120 ticket reflects that. There are no singles, and I’m five-deep in the payoff leg. Having said that, I’m using a few prices throughout the sequence, so the potential for a nice score could be there. Here’s how I’ll play it.

Race 6: Maiden special weight (older fillies/mares, 5 1/2 F, turf), 3:42 p.m. EDT

Right off the bat, we start with a tough turf sprint for maidens. #7 BRITTAS BAY will probably be favored, and for good reason. Her race last time out against similar company at Belmont was pretty good, as she was second beaten just a neck. I’m using her, but the post isn’t great and she may have some work to do to clear this field out of the gate.

With that in mind, I’ll also use #2 PROSPERITY, #3 BYE BYE NICKY, and #8 ERIN MORE. Erin More is a debuting daughter of More Than Ready, and among her half-siblings is McErin, who won first time out and tried very tough horses at Royal Ascot.

Race 7: Optional claiming (older horses, NY-bred, 6F), 4:14 p.m.

This race moreso resembles a state-bred stakes race than an optional claiming event. I’m going two-deep in here, and my top selection is #6 H MAN. He was beaten last time out but may have just been run back too quickly off of three wins in a row. He got a bit of a breather coming into this event, and if he’s right, he’ll be very tough.

Additionally, I’ll use #8 CERRETALTO, who almost certainly needed his race earlier this meet. That was his first start since December, and he was up a bit closer than he probably wanted to be. I think he takes a step forward here at a bit of a price.

Race 8: Saratoga Dew S. (older fillies/mares, NY-bred, 1 1/8 M), 4:46 p.m. ET

The Thursday feature drew a field of six, and I’m focusing on the two horses drawn towards the outside. #6 LUCKY MOVE is my top pick. She broke a long drought when she won at this route earlier in the meet, and she defeated a horse named Ratajkowski, who has some potential. Rosario rides back, and she should get a pace to run at.

I’ll also use #5 HELD ACCOUNTABLE, who outran her odds when third at 20-1 earlier this meet. She probably needed that race coming off of a long layoff, and improvement seems likely in this event.

Race 9: Allowance (older horses, 1 1/16 M, turf), 5:18 p.m. ET

I’m going three-deep in here, and while two horses I’m using will take some money, I think there’s a 10-1 shot that has a big chance.

#1A FINANCIAL SYSTEM and #2 HIERARCHY are both logical. The former stretches back out to two turns and should get more of a pace to run at than he did last time, while the latter makes his first start for Joe Sharp and cuts back from a series of races run at longer distances.

However, I also feel #5 BELGRANO is a must-use. His win last time out against starter allowance foes was good, and he ran very well going two turns a few different times this past winter. He may be in career-best form, and this barn has quietly had a solid meet to this point.

Race 10: Claiming (3-year-olds, 1 1/8 M, turf), 5:50 p.m. ET

This is a true “grass grab bag,” so to speak. There’s not a lot of form signed on here, and I’ve gone five-deep in here.

My top pick is #9 TRICKY MAGICIAN, who drops in class for trainer Mark Casse. The barn must’ve seen something in him last year, as he ran in several tough events at Woodbine. I’m willing to give him a pass for his last race given the long layoff, and I think he could take a step forward given the prep race and class drop.

In case he doesn’t take that step forward, though, I’m also going to use #5 SPINNING KITTEN, #6 BAFFIN BAY, #7 ROCK THE CAUSEWAY, and #10 DAKOTA’S DUDE. If you’ve got deeper pockets and want to buy the race, that’s not a bad move, because the Thursday finale strikes me as a wide-open event.

THE TICKET

R6: 2,3,7,8

R7: 6,8

R8: 5,6

R9: 1,2,5

R10: 5,6,7,9,10

240 Bets = $120.