Champagne: Playing Saratoga's final Wednesday late Pick 5
The last week of the Saratoga meet is upon us. We kick it off with a 10-race Wednesday program, one highlighted by the With Anticipation Stakes (G3) for 2-year-olds going two turns on turf.
I thought this sequence’s “bookend” races were incredibly tough, and my $150 ticket actually buys one of them. This ticket does have a single, so I think there’s room for a nice score if we can get a price or two home around it. Here’s how I’ll play it.
Race 6: Maiden special weight (2-year-olds, NY-bred, 6F), 3:30 p.m. ET
If you’ve got the ability to take a stand here, more power to you. I’m punching the “ALL” button and using the 10 betting interests. #8 BLAME THE CAKE ran well first time out and is a logical favorite, but the rider switch is puzzling, and there’s always the chance of a bounce with a second-time starter. I’ll instead hope for a price, and if we get one home, perhaps we can knock a bunch of tickets out right away.
Race 7: Maiden special weight (2-year-old fillies, 5 1/2 F, turf), 4:02 p.m. ET
Here, I'll single debuting runner that seems well-meant. #7 NIC AND ZOE comes in off of several strong workouts for first-time starter maestro Wesley Ward, and she attracts John Velazquez. All systems appear to be go for this daughter of Street Boss. While she’s likely to be favored, she may not be a prohibitively short price. I’m singling her and hoping she’s the real deal.
Race 8: Starter allowance (older horses, 6F), 4:34 p.m. ET
I can’t get too cute here, as I’m using the two likely favorites. #2 DARK MONEY was impressive in victory last time out and was claimed that day by Rudy Rodriguez, while #6 SMILE BRYAN missed by just a neck at this level earlier in the meet. These two seem like the ones to beat here, and I’m hoping not going deeper than that doesn’t cost me.
Race 9: Grade 3 With Anticipation (2-year-olds, 1 1/16 M, turf), 5:06 p.m. ET
The Wednesday feature attracted an interesting field of 2-year-olds. My top pick is #2 OUR COUNTRY, who turned plenty of heads in his maiden-breaking score earlier this month. He flew home the final quarter mile in that race, and he’s bred to get better as he gains more experience.
I’m also using two others. #1 TUGGLE is bred to like the grass and tries it for the first time after running third in the Saratoga Special (G2), while #8 FIELD PASS topped an impressive next-out winner to earn his diploma in the opening days of the meet. Tuggle is favored on the morning line, but the new surface and the added quarter-mile are both question marks; while I’m using him, it’s not like I’m in love with him, either.
Race 10: Maiden claiming (older fillies/mares, NY-bred, 5 1/2 F, turf), 5:38 p.m. ET
We end the day with a grass grab bag, and there isn’t a lot of proven form signed on in this event. As I mentioned in the opening paragraphs, I think you need to spread here, and I’ve gone five-deep to finish things off.
#5 WINIFRED J is my lukewarm top pick. She ran fairly well off a layoff when third at this level and route earlier in the meet, and she was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart that day. She could conceivably move up second off the bench, and she’ll be one of the favorites.
Having said that, I’ll also use #2 ABBY NORMAL, #3 HERE COMES MEG, #4 MZ SEB PAT, and #6 MIKE’S GIRL. I want plenty of coverage, and there are several square prices in this group that would make this pay pretty handsomely.
The ticket
R6: ALL
R7: 7
R8: 2,6
R9: 1,2,8
R10: 2,3,4,5,6
300 Bets = $150.