Champagne: Tricky bookends to Saturday's Saratoga Pick 5
The Friday late Pick 5 sequence at Saratoga was pretty demoralizing. I had a single in the event the finale came off the turf. It did just that, but my single scratched, which threw the entire ticket into chaos.
Hopefully, we’re done with surface-switches for a few days, because Saturday’s sequence is a really good one. It features three graded stakes races in the middle and bookends that may well be won by prices. I’ve got a $96 ticket that goes fairly thin in the featured races and spreads pretty deeply to start and finish. Here’s how I’ll play it.
Race 8: Allowance (older horses, 6F), 5:09 p.m. ET
If you’ve got deeper pockets and want to punch the “ALL” button here, go right ahead. This is far from an easy race, and I can make plausible cases for six of the nine runners signed on. #5 FORTUNE’S FOOL will likely be favored, and he was flattered a bit by Endorsed running second in Friday's Curlin Stakes, but he’s no cinch (especially if the track continues to play kindly to closers).
I’m also using #4 CHATEAU, #6 MORNING BREEZ, #7 FROSTED GRACE, #8 DARK N CLOUDY, and #9 OVERDELIVER. This hit me as a fascinating betting race, and there are plenty of ways one can go. I’m opting to cover a bunch of possible outcomes, which is easier than it could be from a bankroll standpoint given the structure of my ticket.
Race 9: Grade 1 Vanderbilt Handicap (older horses, 6F), 5:44 p.m. ET
#1 MITOLE may be the best older male horse in training right now. A win here would give him three Grade 1s over older foes at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile, which may propel him into the Horse of the Year discussion. If he’s fully cranked, he probably wins.
However, the rail draw isn’t ideal, and there’s plenty of speed lined up directly to his outside. With that in mind, I also need to use #4 FIRENZE FIRE, who cuts back to what’s probably his preferred distance and could receive an ideal setup. He’s certainly better at Belmont, but with so much speed signed on, it’s not too difficult to see a scenario where he’s the one Mitole has to fend off in the final sixteenth.
Race 10: Grade 2 Bowling Green (older horses, 1 3/8 M, turf), 6:18 p.m. ET
I’m unimpressed by this year’s group of older turf horses. Except for Bricks and Mortar, none have done anything to really stand out, and for that reason, my top selection is Chilean invader #3 YA PRIMO, who makes his American debut for trainer Chad Brown. Yes, this is a class test, and the layoff is a concern, but I’m of the mindset that he may not have to be that much to beat. He went 3-for-3 earlier this year in his homeland, and those wins were by daylight.
Of the other logical horses, the one I respect most is #5 CHANNEL MAKER, who does like Saratoga and is back to defend his title after winning this event a season ago. He was a decent fourth behind Bricks and Mortar last time out, and a repeat of his winning effort in the Grade 1 Man o’ War two back likely puts him right there.
Race 11: Grade 2 Jim Dandy (3-year-olds, 1 1/8 M), 6:51 p.m. ET
This race revolves around one question: Does #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN want to go two turns? I don’t think he does. Yes, he was good in the Grade 3 Peter Pan, when he held off eventual Belmont winner Sir Winston. However, that was a one-turn route of ground, and his race two back in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth was no great shakes.
I think his presence ensures a decent pace, which could set things up for #5 TACITUS and #6 WAR OF WILL. I prefer the latter, who simply ran like a tired horse in the Belmont (his sixth start in less than five months), but the former is certainly good enough on his best day, too.
Race 12: Claiming (older horses, 1M, turf), 7:23 p.m. ET
I’m four-deep in this race, and those of you with deeper pockets/syndicate tickets may want to spread even deeper. #5 SURGE PRICING makes a lot of sense. He won on debut, didn’t run terribly in his first start against winners and drops in for a tag for Chad Brown. On paper, he looks imposing. However, the Brown barn has sent out a number of these droppers this meet, and that group has included several well-bet flops.
I’m using him, but I’m also throwing in three others as well. #4 MY MACHO is another taking a drop in class for competent connections, #9 NO MO PROMISES will be a big price and could improve with distance in his second start off a long layoff, and #12 LETTERMAN’s lone victory to date came in his only outing going two turns on turf (a route he returns to in this spot). If Surge Pricing isn’t ready to run, this becomes anyone’s race, and I sincerely hope I’ve gone deep enough to account for that.
The ticket:
R8: 4,5,6,7,8,9
R9: 1,4
R10: 3,5
R11: 5,6
R12: 4,5,9,12
192 Bets = $96.