Champagne: Analyzing Saratoga's Travers Stakes day Pick 5

Friday's Saratoga late Pick 5 sequence featured a really tough beat. One single (Offering Plan) got home, but our second single (Bankit) was beaten a head, and a nice price that was on the ticket took down the last.

I don’t have too much time to get down on myself, though, because Saturday is Travers Day at Saratoga, and with it comes an all-stakes Pick 5 sequence among the most exciting of the summer. It starts in the seventh race (the Allen Jerkens) and ends in the Mid-Summer Derby.

I actually thought one could play this for a reasonably-small investment, as I’m punching a $90 ticket despite hitting the “ALL” button once. Here’s how I’ll bet it.

Race 7: Grade 1 Allen Jerkens Stakes (3-year-olds, 7F) 2:59 p.m. ET

I have a single here, and I imagine he’ll be a popular one. #1 SHANCELOT looked positively freakish in the Amsterdam (G2) when he romped by open lengths and earned a 121 Beyer Speed Figure. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but he simply looks better than these horses, and anything close to his most-recent performance would make him very tough to beat. I’m singling and moving on. Doing so allows me to spread elsewhere.

Race 8: Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes (older fillies/mares, 1 1/16 M, turf), 3:35 p.m. ET

We writing folks call that last statement “foreshadowing,” because I’m buying this event. There are no standouts here, as the divisional leaders have opted to bypass this race for other stakes races on the road to the Breeders’ Cup, and anticipated favorite Rushing Fall didn't enter due to a reportedly subpar workout. Very little would surprise me, and I don’t have a ton of confidence, so I’ll punch the “ALL” button and hope for a price.

Race 9: Grade 1 Personal Ensign (older fillies/mares, 1 1/8 M), 4:12 p.m. ET

I do miss when this event measured a mile and a quarter, but I digress. This race features a matchup of two top horses in training, regardless of gender. #4 ELATE lost to #1 MIDNIGHT BISOU twice earlier this season, but I think she turns the tables in this spot. She’s back in good form, comes in off of a sharp win in the Delaware Handicap (G2) and may benefit from Midnight Bisou not being quite as sharp around two turns.

I almost singled Elate, but I decided I’d be getting too cute if I did that. Midnight Bisou does make the ticket, even though her one-turn efforts seem markedly better. It’s also simply tough to completely dismiss a runner who has won five graded stakes races this season in a row, two of which were Grade 1s.

Race 10: Grade 1 Sword Dancer (older horses, 1 1/2 M, turf), 4:49 p.m. ET

America’s turf divisions simply aren’t strong this year, which means this is a wide-open event. I’m going five-deep in a nine-horse field, and had I singled Elate, I may very well have opted to buy this race, too.

Chad Brown’s got a powerful hand here, as he’ll saddle three runners. My top pick is #6 YA PRIMO, who ran well off the bench earlier this meet in the Bowling Green (G2). He may have needed that race, and any move forward would make him a formidable foe.

I’ll also use #4 CHANNEL CAT, #5 PILLAR MOUNTAIN, #7 ANNALS OF TIME and #8 CHANNEL MAKER. The only shorter-priced horse I’m tossing is #9 SADLER’S JOY, a late runner who hasn’t won since March of 2018 and seems to be past his peak. Other than that one stance, though, I have very few strong feelings about a race that came up light on quality but heavy on gambling appeal.

Race 11: Grade 1 Travers (3-year-olds, 1 1/4 M), 5:44 p.m. ET

Some players may go fairly deep in Saratoga’s flagship race. But if I’m alive going into the Travers, I’ll rest my hopes, dreams and aspirations on just two horses.

#7 MUCHO GUSTO is my top pick, and I sincerely hope he goes off at or near his 6-1 morning line price. He gave Maximum Security a real test in the Haskell Invitational (G1), and it certainly seems like he’s maturing with each start. He’s got the pedigree to embrace this trip, and there are far worse strategies than betting on a Bob Baffert trainee to win a big race.

In addition, I’ll give #6 TACITUS one more shot. He’s entering “makes his own trouble” territory, and Bill Mott’s track record with horses adding blinkers isn’t great. But he was beaten less than a length in the Jim Dandy (G2) despite a disastrous start. The 10-furlong distance won’t beat him, and he’s certainly a contender if he can fashion a clean trip.

The ticket:

R7: 1

R8: ALL

R9: 1,4

R10: 4,5,6,7,8

R11: 6,7

180 Bets = $90.