Withers Stakes analysis: Derby hopefuls face a stamina test

The $250,000 Withers (G3) is the second in a series of four New York qualifiers for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Started with the Jerome on Jan. 1, the series continues with the Gotham (G3) on March 5 and concludes with the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 9.

A field of eleven colts and geldings will vie for Derby qualifying points on a scale of 10-4-3-1. Five Withers contenders exit the Jerome Stakes, including the winner Courvoisier.

Let's look at the colts and geldings who should handle nine furlongs.

Constitutionlawyer (7-2) has been keeping good company. He was fourth in his debut behind Holy Bull (G3) favorite Mo Donegal. Next out, the Raymond Handal trainee was third behind Courvoisier after a wide trip. A jock switch to Dylan Davis and a change in running style resulted in a 3 1/2 length victory in his third start over a muddy Aqueduct track. Win contender.

Gilded Age (10-1) made a sweeping move from the back of the pack and opened up by 2 3/4 lengths to win his maiden in his fourth start. Previously, the son of Medaglia d'Oro and Grade 1 winner Angela Renee had the misfortune to finish behind Breeders' Cup Juvenile third-place finisher Giant Game, Lecomte hero Call Me Midnight, Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner Rattle N Roll, and Iroquois (G3) winner Major General. Gilded Age ships in from Payson Park for Bill Mott, and Kendrick Carmouche, who is third in the meet's standings, takes the reins. Win contender.

Early Voting (3-1) is the favorite, despite only a maiden win to his credit. He enters for the high percentage team of Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. Ortiz flew in from Gulfstream to ride Early Voting. The son of Gun Runner is out of a Tiznow mare, who is a full sister to Bluegrass Stakes winner Irap, and a half to champion sprinter Speightstown. While Early Voting looked impressive in his debut, only one of his six competitors won next out, and none of the others hit the board. Additionally, Early Voting gives up experience and foundation. Win contender.

Grantham (10-1) gets a class check in the Withers. Last year, the Mike Maker trainee bested maidens by 1 1/2 lengths over Turfway's  Tapeta course, despite face-planting at the start. Declaration of War's son has a turf-oriented pedigree; however, Grantham has a smooth gait and reached out nicely on the synthetic surface. Previously, he placed second in his seven-furlong debut at Churchill. Grantham's speed ratings are mediocre, but he has a later maturing pedigree, and we'll find out if he's up to the task. Laurel Park's leading rider Victor Carrasco will be aboard. Exotics.

Courvoisier (9-2) seeks his third victory in as many starts. The well-bred Kelly Breen trainee was a decisive 1 1/4 length winner in the Jerome Stakes after a pace-pressing trip over a sloppy track; however, he got his last quarter in an uninspiring 27.70. He previously won his maiden at nine furlongs, so the distance question is answered. Despite these accomplishments, Jose Ortiz, the colt's partner in the Jerome, pairs with the less-accomplished Early Voting, and Ruben Silvera, who is one for 23 in dirt routes this meet, takes over. Additionally, Courvoisier's Brisnet Speed Ratings are on the low side. Exotics.

Smarten Up (10-1) made a last-to-second move in the Jerome under aggressive handling by Anthony Salgado, who pushed the colt from the start. He was moving fastest of all at the end, but did he quicken or just pass tired horses? I suspect the latter. By American Freedom, out of a stakes-winning daughter of Smarty Jones, Smarten Up may find nine furlongs as far as he wants to go, although his closing running style will help. Pass.

Cooke Creek (6-1) chased the pace but tired and lost ground in his last two starts, not a good sign that he wants more distance. The Jeremiah O'Dwyer breaks from the far outside, and I expect we'll see a similar effort in the Withers. Pass.

Unbridled Bomber (12-1) has hit the board once in five starts. He was an undistinguished fourth in the Jerome, and there's nothing to indicate that he'll be a threat at nine furlongs. Pass.

Un Ojo (20-1) placed second, beaten a neck, in the seven-furlong Great White Way New York Stallion Series Stakes at 23-1 in his initial start for Tony Dutrow. Laoban's son had a wide trip but looked one-paced and couldn't get by the stubborn winner. Un Ojo should handle the distance has a classy distaff line, but he got his final furlong in 13.31, and I don't like how he hung behind the winner and refused to pass. Pass.

Noneedtoworry (30-1) dominated his last two races at Parx but wasn't in Smarten Up's zip code in two previous starts. Pass.

Mr Jefferson (20-1) was soundly defeated by a combined 20 lengths in the Remsen and Jerome Stakes. He deserves a presidential pardon from the race. Pass.

Analysis

All except one favorite placed first or second in the last decade. Eight of the last ten winners were making their 3-year-old debut, and only one runner who exited the Jerome Stakes won.

All but one of the last ten winners won their previous start and had a pace-pressing or closing style.

Chad Brown seeks back-to-back wins with Early Voting, and the colt will try following in the hoofprints of 2015 winner Far From Over by capturing the Withers in his second start.

Early Voting may vie for the lead with Courvoisier,  Constitutionlawyer, and possibly Smarten Up. However, a hot pace would set the Withers up for a closer, and Gilded Age fits the profile of previous Withers winners.

4. Gilded Age (10-1)

9. Early Voting (3-1)

1. Constitutionlawyer (7-2)

2. Grantham (10-1)