10 emerging names to know on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

With the holiday season over, we can start with the 2018 Kentucky Derby hype. As with their teenage human counterparts, juvenile colts seemingly develop overnight. A lanky, scrawny goofball in December can mature into a legitimate Derby contender by April.

Most years, juvenile form has little bearing on the Triple Crown races. The Kentucky Derby points system bears this out. Since the points system was instituted in 2013, only two Derby heroes had collected early points; Two-year-old Champ Nyquist (30 points) and Triple Crown legend American Pharoah (10 points). Special mention of last year’s Derby runner-up Exaggerator (20 points) and this year’s hard-trying fourth-place finisher, the 2016 Juvie Champ, Classic Empire (30 points).

Unless Good Magic becomes the third colt to pull off the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile/Derby double, the Derby winner has made his debut, raced in an allowance race, or has earned a minor placing in one of the early Kentucky Derby qualifiers.

Using these specifications to discover colts who may take a step forward onto next year’s Triple Crown path is like untangling that huge ball of lights that got mixed in with the garland when we packed away the Christmas stuff. If we start now, perhaps we’ll have it finished by May.

Those lights aren’t gonna sort themselves. Time to get started.

Avery Island

(Street Sense - Kinda Spicy, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Race record: 4-2-0-1 ($215,332)

Avery Island dominated a maiden event and the Nashua Stakes (G2) by a combined 10 lengths. He received a learning experience in the Remsen Stakes. Although he had successful pace-setting trips in his previous two starts, the bay colt was wrangled back to settle behind the pace setters in the Remsen. Avery Island was a touch eager and had to steady slightly of heels. The son of Street Sense raced in heavy traffic much of the way and had no clear running room until rounding the far turn. He was slow to kick into gear and wasn’t going to catch Catholic Boy. Avery Island is currently breezing at Palm Meadows in Florida.

Pedigree: Avery Island has the pedigree and conformation to handle middle to classic distances. His dam, Darley homebred Kinda Spicy, raced only twice, but crushed rivals by more than 10 lengths combined, first at a mile, then in a 1 1/8-mile dirt allowance contest.  Avery Island’s second dam Isola Piu Bella was Champion 3-year-old Filly and Horse of the Year in Chile. As an older mare, she competed in the U.S., and won or placed in five of seven stakes races between 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles.  Avery Island’s sire Street Sense was the first to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ to win the Kentucky Derby. His offspring are strongly middle distance (1 1/8 miles) types. Street Sense isn’t represented by stakes winners at classic distances in the U.S. or Canada, but four of his offspring are winners over turf in Australia and Great Britain. Avery Island’s damsire A.P. Indy is an Intermediate/Classic Chef-de-Race, offering stamina to his descendants.   

Catholic Boy

(More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas

Race record: 4-3-0-0 ($314,000)

Catholic Boy began his career on the lawn and showed talent in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. While finishing fourth, beaten 1 1/2 lengths. Next time out, Catholic Boy answered the “can he run on dirt?” question in a big way, capturing the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes by 4 3/4 lengths over Nashua Stakes hero Avery Island. The bay colt will have a short vacation while his connections map out their path to the Kentucky Derby.

Pedigree: Catholic Boy has a solid middle-distance pedigree. The stakes progeny of his sire More Than Ready are best up to 1 1/8 miles, although a couple have stretched to 1 1/4 miles over the lawn. Damsire Bernardini is just getting started as a broodmare sire. In this designation, Bernardini is represented by 11 stakes winners globally, including 2016 Remsen Stakes winner Mo Town. Two of his daughter’s offspring are winners at classic distances, both over the lawn. Catholic Boy’s distaff line isn’t as prestigious as some of his counterparts. His dam Song of Bernadette is a half sister to Return to Paradise, who won a listed 1 1/16 mile stakes on the lawn. She bore restricted stakes placed Canzoni. Song of Bernadette’s half-brother Capac placed in a 1 1/8 mile listed race at Laurel. 


Dak Attack

(Ghostzapper - Indian Spell, by Indian Charlie)

Trainer: Dale Romans

Race record: 3-2-0-1 ($81,530)

After galloping to an easy debut victory over three rivals, one of whom was eventual Hopeful Stakes (G1) hero Sporting Chance, Dak Attack made short work of a full field of colts in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes, drawing off by three lengths. The field included Bashford Manor (G3) winner Ten City. Sadly, the promising Ten City broke down in the stretch of the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), while looking every part of a winner.  In his first start off of a four month layoff, Dak Attack finished third in the one mile Mucho Man Stakes.

Pedigree:  Dak Attack has a middle-distance pedigree which is borderline for classic distances. Horse of the Year and successful sire Ghostzapper has eight stakes winning offspring at 1 1/4 miles, and beyond, most are winners over the lawn or Polytrack, but Queen’s Plate hero Shaman Ghost transferred his form to dirt to capture the Santa Anita Handicap.  Indian Charlie is a young broodmare sire. His daughters have produced 24 stakes winners. The majority are sprinters, and six have won at 1 1/8 miles, but true to form, none have won beyond that. Indian Charlie’s offspring are best up to 1 1/8 miles. In racing, anything is possible, and certainly, a winner at classic distances isn’t out of the realm of possibility but will be the exception.

Dak Attack is the first foal out of the stakes winning sprinter, Indian Spell. His second dam is 2008 Champion Three Year Old Filly Proud Spell. The talented daughter of Proud Citizen won stakes races from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles, including the Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, and Alabama Stakes. This distaff line produced the precocious J P’s Gusto, winner of the Del Mar Futurity and Best Pal Stakes.

Enticed

(Medaglia d'Oro - It's Tricky, by Mineshaft)

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Race record: 3-2-0-1 ($213,880)

Enticed flashed unusual precocity when he won a dirt sprint at first asking on closing day at Saratoga. He returned to place third in the Champagne Stakes, bested three lengths for second place by eventual Breeders’ Cup hero Good Magic. Enticed lacked running room in the stretch of the Champagne, but in his own little match race to the wire, he refused to let the fourth-place finisher Kowboy Karma pass. Enticed’s tenacity was on display in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Despite fanning seven wide on the far turn, the dark bay colt made a strong bid for the lead. Tiz Mischief gave Enticed all he could handle but Enticed prevailed by a narrow head.

Pedigree: Enticed is a Godolphin Stables homebred, and his pedigree is perfect for classic distances. Medaglia d'Oro may be known for siring super fillies Rachel Alexandra and Songbird, but his sons hold their own at top levels. Eight of his offspring are winners at 1 1/4 miles and farther.  Besides Enticed, Medaglia d'Oro is the sire of probable 2017 Juvenile Champ Bolt d’Oro. Damsire Mineshaft is represented by just 16 stakes winners as a broodmare sire. Only one, a French listed winner, has been successful at 1 1/4 miles or farther. However, the bulk are middle-distance types, including Kentucky Oaks heroine Cathryn Sophia and 2014 Remsen Stakes hero Leave the Light On.

Enticed is the first foal out of multiple Grade 1 winner It's Tricky.  The mare spent most of her 18-race career fighting it out with Champion Royal Delta, Kentucky Oaks heroine Plum Pretty, and multiple Grade 1 winner Turbulent Descent. It’s Tricky won from a mile to 1 1/8 miles and was second in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes behind Royal Delta. She also finished second to that rival in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Enticed’s second dam Catboat was multiple stakes placed between a mile to 1 1/8 miles. 

Instilled Regard

(Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer

Race record: 4-1-2-1 ($108,000)

Instilled Regard put it together in his third start when he tried two-turns for the first time. He followed up with a gutsy second-place finish in the CashCall Futurity, after pinballing between Solomoni and McKenzie.

Pedigree: Instilled Regard has similar breeding to 2016 Kentucky Derby hero Nyquist and Grade 1 heroine Turbulent Descent. Arch sired Champions Arravale, Blame, plus Grade 1 winners Pine Island and Prince Arch, all successful at 1 1/4 miles and farther. Arch is the damsire of Nyquist’s sire, Uncle Mo. Instilled Regard and Nyquist and Turbulent Descent share the same damsire and second damsire, Forestry and Seeking the Gold.

This million-dollar baby has a fantastic pedigree rife with Claiborne, Phipps and Overbrook Farm breeding influences. Instilled Regard’s dam Enhancing is a 3/4 sister to the multiple Grade 1 turf router Good Reward (Storm Cat)and Grade 2 winner Pure Prize. Two of Enhancing’s half-sisters bore blacktype earners; Persistently, who captured the 1 1/4 mile Personal Ensign Handicap (G1), and multiple Grade 1 stakes placed Faithfully who placed at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 miles. Instilled Regard’s second dam is Champion Heavenly Prize, a two-time Grade 1 winner at 1 1/4 miles. Heavenly Prize’s full sister Oh What A Windfall captured the one-mile Matron Stakes (G1) as a two-year-old and another full sister, Dancinginmydreams placed in the same race. She bore Grade 1 turf router Dancing Forever.

McKinzie
(Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Race record: 3-3-0-0 ($270,000)
McKinzie is the latest star in the Baffert barn. After fighting on the lead in the CashCall Futurity (G1), the bay colt played bumper cars in an exciting three-way finish, taking the brunt of the action. He was awarded the win when his stablemate Solomini was DQ’d for causing the incident. Baffert took the blinkers of McKinzie to get the colt to relax in the Sham Stakes (G3). It worked, and the bay colt ran off to a 3 1/2-length victory. I’m not totally sold on this swift Baffert baby as a Kentucky Derby prospect. Previous Sham Stakes victors have continued their careers as sprinter/milers. Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and in 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville. McKinzie's pedigree and conformation indicate that 1 1/4 miles may be a little too far.
Pedigree: Street Sense was the first to break the “Breeders’ Cup Juvenile curse.” With his stirring victory in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The bulk of his offspring are milers and are best up to 1 1/16 miles. Street Sense is represented by four winners at 1 1/4 miles and farther. All four are winners over the lawn, three in Australia and one in Great Britain. McKinzie’s distaff side produces precocious speed oriented stakes horses, although a couple are stakes placed at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn. McKinzie’s dam was a multiple Grade 2 stakes-winning juvenile and never competed past 1 1/16 miles. The family includes Iroquois Stakes hero Lucky Player, G3 stakes winning sprinter Southern Honey, and Grade 3-winning turf miler Saham.

Mourinho

(Super Saver - Sandi's Ready, by More Than Ready)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Race record: 3-1-2-0 ($64,360)

Mourinho made headlines at the In the 2017 OBS March Two Year Old in Training Sale when he breezed a quarter mile in :20 1/5, equaling the OBS quarter mile breeze record. The son of Super Saver was quickly snapped up by Bob Baffert’s agent for $625,000. Mourinho was a 4 1/2-length winner in his sprint debut. Next out, in the six-furlong Speakeasy Stakes, Mourinho was passed late by Beautiful Shot, coming in second to that rival by 1 1/4 lengths. In his last start, the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes (G2), Baffert changed the speedy colt’s running style. Mourinho stalked the pace on the rail and came within a length of Greyvitos in the stretch. Mourinho couldn’t close the deal, so once again settled for second place. Mourinho scratched out of the Sham Stakes. 
Pedigree: Mourinho’s immediate distaff line is filled with sprinter/miler types. His dam Sandi's Ready did her best work as a turf sprinter, mostly at the allowance optional claiming level, but she did place in a turf sprint stakes. She's a half-sister to multiple G3 stakes placed dirt sprinter/miler Domonation and to stakes placed turf sprinter Hot Squeeze.
Principe Guilherme 
(Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)

Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Race record: 2-2-0-0 ($61,800)
Principe Guilherme jumped onto the Triple Crown radar with a huge 11 3/4-length victory over allowance foes at Fair Grounds, galloping one mile, seventy yards in a solid 1:42.94. The bay son of Tapit is entered in Saturday’s LeComte Stakes (G3).
Pedigree:  Principe Guilherme sold for $600,000 as a weanling, not surprising given his lineage and conformation. We know that Tapit’s offspring win at all distances. Principe Guilherme’s immediate female family is filled with precocious sprinter/miler blacktype. He’s the first foal out of Grade 1-winning sprinter Aubby K. The mare is a half sister to Flying Pegasus, who placed in the Belmont Futurity (G2) as a juvenile and the Risen Star (G2) as a 3-year-old. That one’s full brother also placed in the Belmont Futurity.  Principe Guilherme’s second dam Lilly Capote won the Golden Rod at 2, and the one-mile Miss Preakness as a 3-year-old.  The stamina genes are found in Principe Guilherme’s third generation. His third dam London Lil won the La Prevoyante (G3) over the lawn when it was carded at 1 1/8 miles. London Lil is also the third dam of American Oaks (G1) heroine Room Service.
Sea Foam
(Medaglia d'Oro - Strike It Rich, by Unbridled's Song)
Trainer: Christophe Clement

Race record: 5-2-3-0 ($131,600)

After a trio of solid runner-up finishes in dirt and turf sprints, Sea Foam captured his next two starts, including a state-bred restricted sprint in New York. The bay colt is currently training at Belmont.
Pedigree: Sea Foam is out of a graded stakes-winning turf miler. His second dam Belle of Perintown won the 1 1/16-mile Silverbulletday Stakes. He’s yet to transverse two turns, but Sea Foam should handle 1 1/8 miles and improve as a three-year-old.

Solomini

Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Race record: 3-1-2-0 ($436,000)

Every year, a goofy problem child makes it to the Triple Crown trail based on talent. Their antics can be frustrating to their trainers, and entertaining to fans. Solomini is this year’s problem child.
After capturing his debut, the Chestnut son of Curlin jumped into the deep end of the stakes scene.  The promising youngster placed second in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Solomini made a winning move in the CashCalll Futurity, but played bumper cars with stablemate McKinzie and Instilled Regard, and was DQ’d to third place for his antics.Once he gets his head in the game, Solomini could be a legitimate threat.
Pedigree: Solomini is the first blacktype earner out of his dam Surf Song. The unraced daughter of Storm Cat is a half-sister to three stakes winners; Her half-brother Midshipman was 2009 Champion 2-year-old Colt. Surf Song’s half-sister Fast Cookie was a multiple stakes winner over turf and dirt. She’s better known as the dam of Frosted, who matured into a multiple Grade 1 winner and track record setter. Surf Song’s third half sibling Regia Marina, is a stakes winning sprinter.  The Chestnut coated Solomini unsurprisingly, resembles his sire and has the conformation to handle classic distances.  
Special Mention: 

Believe in Royalty (Tapit - Believe You Can, by Proud Citizen) looked like the real deal before a dull sixth-place finish in the Remington Springboard Mile. The Larry Jones trainee has the opportunity to rebound in the LeComte Stakes. Believe in Royalty is the first foal out of the 2012 Kentucky Oaks Champ. A multiple graded stakes winner, Believe You Can’s distance range was six to nine furlongs. Conditioned by Larry Jones, Believe You Can won eight of 14 starts and over a million dollars.
Greyvitos (Malibu Moon - Snow Top Mountain, by Najran) is recuperating from knee chip surgery, and his connections will later determine if the pretty gray colt will be able to continue on the Triple Crown trail. Greyvitos looked spectacular winning the Bob Hope (G2) stakes and Remington Springboard Mile.  

Tiz Mischief (Into Mischief - Indivia, by Tiznow) lost the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) by a head. There’s hope that the son of Into Mischief can stretch out. His dam won a maiden race at 1 1/8 miles, and she’s a half-sister to Black-Eyed Susan heroine, Payton D’Oro. Tiz Mischief is wintering at Gulfstream Park, under the care of Dale Romans.

Vino Rosso (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry (IRE)) won an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs on December 22, but the Pletcher trainee hasn’t recorded a work since. The son of Curlin could be taking time off before returning to the work tab. 

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