Shanghai Bobby Racing Against History

Photo: Alex Evers / Eclipse Sportswire

The Holy Bull Stakes (G-3) is Florida's first major contest on the Kentucky Derby trail. Starlight Racing and Todd Pletcher played the spoilers in last year's Holy Bull with Algorithms, handing Juvenile Champ Hanson the first defeat of his career. This year, the shoe is on the other hoof. Pletcher sends Starlight Racing's undefeated Eclipse Award winner Shanghai Bobby into the Holy Bull as the likely favorite. 
 
History is against Shanghai Bobby winning his first start as a three year old. In the last 28 years, nine winners of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile were victorious in their initial start as sophomores. Of those nine, only three won a graded stakes contest. One horse, Vindication, never raced again after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
It seems that later is better when it comes to Breeders' Cup Juvenile champs starting their three year old season. None of the nine colts who began their three year old campaign with a victory raced before February. The earliest success belonged to Fly So Free, who won the 1990 Hutcheson Stakes (G-3) when it was held in early February.
During the last decade, four of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champs won their next start. Only Street Sense faced competition in a graded stakes when he won the Tampa Bay Derby (G-3). Midshipman didn't start again until winning an Allowance race the following September in Dubai.
The connections of War Pass and Uncle Mo took the easy way out in facing inferior competition in their initial three year old starts. War Pass faced four colts, only one of whom had won a stakes race.
 
The power of Pletcher was evident in 2011 when Gulfstream Park created The Timely Writer, a stakes race written specifically for the undefeated Uncle Mo. Like War Pass, Uncle Mo faced four over-matched competitors, none of whom had more than a maiden win to their name. Both War Pass and Uncle Mo lost subsequent starts against higher class foes. To be fair to Uncle Mo, it was discovered that he suffered from a liver ailment after his first defeat.
 
In this year's Holy Bull, Shanghai Bobby faces a larger and deeper field than Hansen did last year. Hansen's two most accomplished rivals were three-time state-bred stakes winner Fort Loudon and listed stakes winner My Adonis. Hansen placed second to Algorithms, a young, promising colt with only two wins under his girth. Shanghai Bobby on the other hand, will face Kentucky Jockey Club (G-2) runners-up Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, Delta Jackpot (G-3) runner-up Bern Identity, Gulfstream Derby hero Itsmyluckyday, Seacliff Stakes winner Sr. Quisqueyano, and the stakes placed Clearly Now and Fredericksburg, as well as the improving allowance winner Tulira Castle and the state-bred stakes placed Joshua's Compromise.
If the history of Two Year Old Champs losing in their first starts as three year olds continues, Shanghai Bobby could taste defeat for the first time and be deposed as the early Kentucky Derby leader.
Below is a list of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners, the date of their subsequent start, race and how they finished.

YEAR

HORSE

DATE

RACE

FINISH

2011

Hansen

1-29-12

Holy Bull Stakes G2

2

2010

Uncle Mo

3-12-11

Timely Writer Stakes

1

2009

Vale Of York

3-4-10

Listed Stakes (Meydan)

5

2008

Midshipman

9-18-09

Allowance/Optional Claim

1

2007

War Pass

2-24-08

Allowance

1

2006

Street Sense

3-17-07

Tampa Bay Derby G3

1

2005

Stevie Wonderboy

1-4-06

San Rafael Stakes G2

2

2004

Wilko

12-18-04

Hollywood Futurity G1

3

2003

Action This Day

2-8-04

Sham Stakes (ungraded)

4

2002

Vindication

N/A

None

-

2001

Johannesburg

4-7-02

Gladness Stakes

2

2000

Macho Uno

7-25-01

Allowance

2

1999

Anees

3-19-00

San Felipe Stakes G2

3

1998

Answer Lively

1-30-99

Lecomte Handicap

7

1997

Favorite Trick

3-14-98

Swale Stakes G3

1

1996

Boston Harbor

2-2-97

Santa Catalina Stakes

4

1995

Unbridled's Song

2-4-96

Hutcheson Stakes G3

2

1994

Timber Country

3-4-95

San Rafael Stakes G2

3

1993

Brocco

12-19-93

Hollywood Futurity

2

1992

Gilded Time

11-6-93

BC Sprint

3

1991

Arazi

4-7-92

Prix Omnium II (listed)

1

1990

Fly So Free

2-2-91

Hutcheson Stakes G3

1

1989

Rhythm

2-10-90

Hutcheson Stakes G3

7

1988

Is It True

4-14-89

Allowance

5

1987

Success Express

12-20-87

Hollywood Futurity

6

1986

Capote

4-4-87

Gotham G2

4

1985

Tasso

3-15-86

Manassa Mauler Stakes

1

1984

Chief's Crown

3-2-95

Swale Stakes (ungraded)

1

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