Saratoga Maiden Report - Opening Day July 24

Handicapping maidens is a time-consuming frustrating task to many horse players, novices and advanced alike. A lot of research goes into handicapping a maiden race. Reviewing precocity, suitability for surface and distance, plus the usual trainer/jockey stats, track bias etc.   If a horse has started previously, a close scrutiny of not only the performance, but the horse’s reaction to adversity will give clues to future starts. Last year, Saratoga carded 106 races for maidens and two year old stakes. Horse players who bypass these races are at a huge disadvantage and miss out on big payouts, especially when that maiden race is part of your vertical selections or the Pick 6.

I created the Maiden Report as an opportunity for handicappers to learn more about individual maiden entrants while removing hours of research. Saratoga’s opening day contains three races for two year old fillies, two maiden races and the Schuylerville Stakes. Space on the Pedigree Power blog is limited, so I’ve included one race below. You can download the remaining two races at the Iron Maidens Website.

Notes:

All work report information is supplied by Bruno de Julio’s Brunowiththeworks.

Sires’ First Time Starter (FTS) and overall 2YO win % statistics are determined from number of runners, not number of foals.

For opening day, there are no Saratoga current meet trainer/jock statistics. 

Keys:

MG1SW - Multiple G-1 Stakes Winner.

MG2SW - Multiple G-2 Stakes Winner.

MG3SW - Multiple G-3 Stakes Winner.

MSW - Multiple Stakes Winner, non-graded.

GSW - Stakes winner of a single graded stakes.

SW - Stakes winner of a single stakes, non-graded.

GSP - Graded Stakes Placed.

SP - Stakes Placed, non-graded.

Weather:  Afternoon rain 43%. 

RACE 2 | MSW – NY-bred| 5 ½ F | 2YO F

A field of ten NY breds, all first time starters will vie in the meet’s initial maiden race.

#1 LEMON LIQUEUR (5-2)

Sire FTS:  13% / 2YO 38%

Dam/Sibling:  LEMON LIQUEUR has two siblings to race, neither have won in multiple starts. They are a combined 13-0-1-2.  Both needed numerous starts to hit the board. The dam Limoncella is MSP on turf. She’s a half to the dam of MG1 turf winner GABRIEL CHARLES.  The dam, by Lemon Drop Kid, needed three starts to win. 

Trainer/Jock:  Richard Violette, Jr. & Jose Ortiz teamed last year for a 17-5-3-3 result. Violette is a top conditioner of 2YO. 

Works:  LEMON LIQUEUR worked a 2^nd to last bullet at AQU.  No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line: Precocity is on the low side and the fact that neither sibling won is a class question.  Also, many off the family prefer turf, and this filly may eventually wind up on the lawn.  I don’t like the #1 post for FTS, they tend to break in or outward, either costing lengths or bashing into their fellow contender.  Lemon Liqueur will be low odds due to the trainer/jock connections.

#2 FLATWARE (6-1)

Sire FTS:  10% / 2YO 37%

Dam/Sibling:  All three half siblings started as 2YO and all three won/placed in their debut.  Half sibling COASTLINE won the Street Sense Stakes at two and was G3 placed at three. The dam CULINARY won her debut and the Arlington-Washington Lassie.

Trainer/Jock:  Mark Henning has won with 2 of 72 FTS. He and Rosario are 0-7 together.  

Works:  She’s recorded three 4F works, all slightly faster at Belmont. Work times are average. No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:  Despite the poor trainer/jock stats, this cleverly named filly  (Flatter – Culinary) hails from a very precocious and classy distaff family. I like her win chances a lot.

#3 NIGHT MADAM (4-1)

Sire FTS:  7% / 2YO 35%

Dam/Sibling:  She is a first foal. The dam went 0-4 in her career. The dam is a half to SW LES RY LEIGH and two minor SP runners.  Much of the family has made multiple starts with little success.  Class is an issue.

Trainer/Jock:  Contessa is 3-94 this year with debut maidens. In 2013 he hit with 2 double-digit paying 2YO winners. It can happen, but infrequently.  The plus side is that last year’s leading jock Javier Castellano rides.

Works:  NIGHT MADAM had a quick pre-race lung opener (3F :36 4/5). No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:  Midnight Lute gets an overall 29% 2YO winners from starters, but his babies need some time to mature. This filly’s distaff family is suspect for class and the trainer has dismal 2YO stats.

#4 LADY'S FIRST (10-1)

Sire FTS:  9%/ 2YO  10%

Dam/Sibling:  She is a first foal. The dam was a rare ultra-precocious filly, one of Giacomo’s first starters and won her debut as an early May 2YO. She won the TTA Sales Futurity at Lone Star and placed in a few other minor stakes during her career. The dam is the only stakes winner in two generations and overall, her half siblings were also precocious.

Trainer/Jock:  Dallas Stewart is noted for sending late-developing three year olds to finish second at long odds in the Kentucky Derby.  His 2YO stats aren’t that great, 3-46 (6%) for FTS. And 10% with 2YO. Bridgmohan rides and he has a solid 18% win with sprinters.

Works:   Breezing at CD, last three works are slow side of average.  Last work was from the gate in a slow 1:02 for 5F. No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:  Lady’s first has a precocious female family, not a whole lot of class except for her dam. Her sire Ghostzapper isn’t noted for getting precocious offspring and damsire Giacomo was a long-wined one-paced type.  This filly has the pedigree to prefer going 1 ¼ miles and may need a few starts. 5 ½ F may be too short.

#5 ARGYLE GAL (8-1)

Sire FTS:  7%/ 2YO 50%

Dam/Sibling:  She’s a 4^th foal. 2 of 3 of her half siblings started at 2, neither one won, although one placed.  Only one of the 3 is a winner. The dam went 0-4 in her career. She’s a half to the hardy MSW SUCCESSFUL AFFAIR who raced 65 times and earned over $475K, but whose last race was a $5K at Mountaineer. Sire Frost Giant gets 7% FTS, but has a very healthy 50% 2YO win rate. The son of Giant’s Causeway was a leading freshman sire in NY.

Trainer/Jock:  8-1 on a Wesley Ward & Rafael Hernandez have teamed to win 5 of 10 races. Ward is noted for getting win-early babies.  Last year, Ward won five races, four with maidens, however, his maiden on opening day didn’t win.

Works:   ARGYLE GAL had a series of 3F bullet works at GP, but her works at SAR have been very slow. However, Bruno has been impressed with her last three breezes, as the youngster has been paired with older workmates.

Bottom Line:  Given her slow works at SAR, not sure that she cares for the surface. Since she’s trained by a top trainer of 2YO, her odds will be low. 

#6 HERE COMES ROSIE (12-1)

Sire FTS:  6%/ 2YO 32%

Dam/Sibling:   She is a 7^th foal.  5 half siblings raced, three won, but each one won only once in multiple starts.  Two won/placed in their debut. The dam was a career maiden for two long years and won once in 20 starts. There are no blacktype runners in the first two generations.

Trainer/Jock:  Jeremiah Englehart Manny Franco have teamed for 1 win in 3 starts.  Englehart is 4 for 42 (10%) with FTS and 15% with 2YO.

Works:  This filly has strung together a series of decent works over the Belmont training track. Her last four breezes were in the top ten of the day and she had a bullet 3F  three works back.  No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:  It seems that this filly’s half siblings visit the winner’s circle, decide that all the commotion and photo taking isn’t for them and never enter it again.  If this girl is going to win, she’ll do it in her first couple of starts.  The works aren’t bad and the trainer stats line up with everyone else.

#7 SARATOGA GAL (20-1)

Sire FTS:  9%/  2YO  36%

Dam/Sibling:  She’s a 3^rd foal, 2 half siblings raced. They and the dam won/placed in their first and second starts. There’s no blacktype in the first two generations.  Saratoga Gal is bred to be a precocious sprinter. Her sire Posse gets mainly sprinters and her damsire Anees was a champion 2YO.

Trainer/Jock:  Tim Hills is 2-34 with FTS.  He and Lanerie are 0-3 together. Lanerie is 14% with sprinters.

Works:  This filly has been working very slowly at Monmouth, which is noted for having a tight, speed favoring surface.  Either she’s just not that fast, he’s deliberately working her slow, or she has a fat exercise rider.  No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:   She’s bred to be a win-early precocious sprinter, but the morning works plus the trainer and jock stats are under-whelming.

#8 SUE'S NICE SHADOW (15-1)

Sire FTS:  5%/  2YO: 36%   

Dam/Sibling:  She’s a 6^th  foal, 2 full and 1 half siblings raced, two are winners. One full sibling and the dam won/placed in their first starts and are claiming class runners. There’s no blacktype in the first two generations.

Trainer/Jock:  Chris Englehart trained this filly’s half brother Master Splash to a second place finish in his debut.  The trainer’s stats leave something to be desired at other NY tracks, but he had a healthy 20% win rate with first timers last year at Saratoga.

Works:  This filly has average works at  Belmont.   No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:  SUE'S NICE SHADOW may be a cut below the best in here. She’s bred to go longer and turf could become an option down the road.

#9 CORINTHIAN'S JOY (12-1)

Sire FTS:  14%  / 2YO 43%

Dam/Sibling:  She’s a 5^th foal. All half siblings have won. Only 1 of 3 won their debut, although one was second in his second start.  The dam is an unraced half to the SW turf mare FORT POND, who is the dam of  the multiple stakes winning turf veteran FORT PRADO. Despite her name CORINTHIAN'S JOY is not by CORINTHIAN, she’s by Pomeroy, a sire who gets win-early sprinters.

Trainer/Jock:  Dominick Schettino has a healthy 18% win rate with FTS. Jockey Eric Cancel is 18% with sprinters.  He and Schettino have paired up only once.      

Works:  This filly has a fast/slow/fast work pattern, with her pre-race work a strong 4F move over a good track at BEL. This is a “live work pattern” and horses with this pattern often hit the board. No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:  There’s some class in the female family and she’s bred to win early. Trainer/jock stats are respectable and I like the breeze pattern. 

#10 FREUDSALM (5-1)

Sire FTS:  10% / 2YO 33%

Dam/Sibling:  She’s a 4^th foal, 2 half sibs raced/won, one won their debut.  The dam needed 6 tries but hit the board in her 2^nd start and was also trained by Pompay.   By Freud out of a Songandaprayer mare, this filly should be ultra speedy.

Trainer/Jock:  Teresa Pompay has a cringing 0-33 record with debut maidens and an unhealthy  3-51 (6%) with FTS.  However, Paco Lopez is an excellent jock and is 20% with sprinters.

Works:  This filly had two 4F gate breezes that were in the top ten at MTH. No current breeze info from Bruno.

Bottom Line:   Like many others in this race, filly is bred to be fast.  Last 2 breezes had good times. Jock is strong, trainer, not so much.  The far outside post is at a disadvantage in sprints at SAR.

SELECTIONS:

#9 CORINTHIAN'S JOY (12-1)

#2 FLATWARE (6-1)

#1 LEMON LIQUEUR (5-2)

#6 HERE COMES ROSIE (12-1)

The Schuylerville Stakes and the sixth race contain well-bred babies.  Learn more about them at the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website.