Saratoga Maiden Report - July 25
Handicapping maidens is a time-consuming frustrating task to many horse players, novices and advanced alike. A lot of research goes into handicapping a maiden race. Reviewing precocity, suitability for surface and distance, plus the usual trainer/jockey stats, track bias etc. If a horse has started previously, a close scrutiny of not only the performance, but the horse’s reaction to adversity will give clues to future starts.
Friday July 24, 2015 Results:
Race 2 exacta $45
Race 6 trifecta $563
Race 5 | MSW | 5 ½ F | 2YO
#1 SET THE TRAPPE (6-1)
Sire FTS: 0% / 2YO: 22%
Dam/Sibling: SET THE TRAPPE is a son of freshman sire TRAPPE SHOT. The stallion has 9 starters, 2 winners, but neither won first time out. SET THE TRAPPE has three siblings to race, all are winners. All three raced at 2, two won/placed. He’s a half to SP Brimstone Island and restricted SP In Broad Daylight. Their dam Broad Sound hit the board in 7 of 15 starts. She’s a half to SW HAIR SPRAY and LEGAL CONTROL. Second dam MISS LEGALITY was a very precocious youngster, winning two stakes and placing in three others as a two year old and winning the Black-Eyed Susan S. at three.
Trainer/Jock: Tony Dutrow had an average 18% winners from FTS at Saratoga last year and his 2TO won at a respectable 29%. He’s teamed with Alex Cintron for 2 wins in 4 starts in the last 3 months, and Cintron has a strong 24% win rate with sprinters.
Works: SET THE TRAPPE has been breezing at Fair Hill. His last work was a sharp 5F in 1:00.
Bottom Line: SET THE TRAPPE has class and precocity in his distaff line. His sire was a strong sprinter. The trainer jock stats are decent. I don’t care for the #1 post for FTS, but this colt looks pretty good.
#2 DEEP IN A DREAM (20-1)
Sire FTS: 5% | 2YO: 25%
Dam/Sibling: DEEP IN A DREAM is the first foal out of his unraced dam. She’s a full sister to Super Derby hero FANTASTICAT. A half sister bore the G1 winning sprinter CENTRALINTELIGENCE. The second dam LOTTA DANCING is a G-3 winner.
Trainer/Jock: A Wesley Ward firster at 20-1? He gives Rafael Hernandez a shot, although the duo are 0-8 in the last 3 months.
Works: DEEP IN A DREAM has recorded a steady string of works over the Saratoga turf. Bruno was impressed with the colt’s Jul. 20 work and gave him 4 stars.
Bottom Line: DEEP IN A DREAM Contested the pace three wide in an early sprint at KEE. Before fading like a nightmare in the stretch. The winner of that race was recent Schuylerville Stakes runner-up Banree. By Quiet American out of a Storm Cat mare, Deep in a Dream should appreciate the stretch out in distance and hopefully won’t be hustled to the lead. Should he get the perfect trip, Deep in a Dream could be moving late, but this distance is still short for him.
#3 HORNER MAN (15-1)
Sire FTS: 11% / 2YO: 33%
Dam/Sibling: Three half siblings raced and won, 2 won/placed at two. HORNER MAN’s dam CEES IRISH was a good California race mare. She was stakes placed as a 2YO and was a multiple SW on turf at three. She owns the only blacktype in two generations.
Trainer/Jock: Brian Lynch won with 24% of his stock last year at Saratoga. He and Rosariao won with their only runner together in the last 3 months.
Works: 3 of the last 4 works by HORNER MAN at BEL were in the top 3 of the day.
Bottom Line: HORNER MAN has good works, decent precocity and a good trainer. What’s not to like?
#4 VOODOO WAVE (12-1)
Sire FTS: 10% / 2YO: 30%
Dam/Sibling: 4 of his 5 half siblings raced and are winners, including the SW sprinter ZERO RATE POLICY.
Three of VOODOO WAVE’s half siblings won/placed in their debut. His dam is unraced but the second dam PUNKIN PIE is a SW.
Trainer/Jock: Terri Pompay hit the board with 2 third place finishers yesterday, once with Castellano, but she’s still 0-35 with FTS.
Works: VOODOO WAVE has been working sharply at MTH, including a 3F :35 lung opener pre-race to add speed.
Bottom Line: VOODOO WAVE is by Forestry, but the sprinter stallion’s babies win at only 10% first time out. Add that to 0-35 annndd…we don’t have a winner. Perhaps he can hit the board.
#5 CONDOMINIUM (12-1)
Sire FTS: 7% / 2YO: 26%
Dam/Sibling: CONDOMINIUM has 2 half siblings, one is a winner. One started at 2, but didn’t hit the board. Their dam GARDEN DISTRICT won the CD Debutant at two. She’s a half sister to Transylvania S. winner MEDAL COUNT. CONDOMINIUM’s sire Tiznow rarely gets win-early types.
Trainer/Jock: “The Coach” Lukas used to be known for training precocious youngster, but his stats have waned. He’s 4 – 94 with FTS.
Works: CONDOMINIUM had a decent 4th best work over the SAR training track.
Bottom Line: CONDOMINIUM’s dam was a win-early type, but her babies aren’t. Tiznow offspring typically need time to mature and prefer some distance. Add Lukas’s dismal FTS stats, and put the Condo up for rent.
Sire FTS: 14% / 2YO: 31%
Dam/Sibling: SARATOGA MISCHIEF has 3 half siblings, all started, 2 won and one won/placed in 5 of 6 starts at 2. Their dam Pacific Destiny hit the board in 10 of 22 starts. She’s a half to the dam of MSW VERTICAL VISION. SARATOGA MISCHIEF has a precocious pedigree, by top win-early sire INTO MISCHIEF out of a Mr. Greeley mare, this colt will be a sprinter/miler type.
Trainer/Jock: Pletcher & Johnny V. were blanked on opening day.
Works: SARATOGA MISCHIEF was Peter Pan S. winner Madefromlucky’s workmate 2 breezes back. Bruno noted that the younger colt held his own.
Bottom Line: SARATOGA MISCHIEF has a precocious pedigree and starts for a top barn who regards him highly enough to work with an older stakes horse.
#7 SHOW BOUND (4-1)
Sire 2YO: 24%
Dam/Sibling: SHOW BOUND already has two starts under his girth and he placed in the Bashford Manor S. last time out, behind Sanford Stakes entrant HE’S COMIN IN HOT. There’s little blacktype in the first 2 generations, but his 2nd dam SPANISH DIOR is MGSP.
Trainer/Jock: Asmussen teams with Leparoux
Works: SHOW BOUND had a speed inducing 3F breeze pre-race.
Bottom Line: SHOW BOUND is the most experienced colt in the field and has hit the board in both starts. Add the high trainer/jock stats and we may have a chalky winner.
#8 SILVERTOWN (10-1)
Sire: 2YO: 40%
Dam/Sibling: SILVERTOWN is the first foal out of his dam. She hit the board in 6 of 16 starts. The 2nd dam CHERRY TREE HILL is SP. Top sprint sire Speightstown gets 40% 2YO winners. SILVERTOWN had the misfortune to meet up with eventual Bashford Manor winner HE’S COMIN IN HOT in their debut. SILVERTOWN made a 5 wide move from off of the pace but couldn’t sustain, and had to settle for 3rd.
Trainer/Jock: Kenneally wins with 27% making their 2nd start. He and Lanerie are a solid 21% together.
Works: SILVERTOWN hasn’t recorded a work at Saratoga. His last was a decent 5F move at CD.
Bottom Line: SILVERTOWN is bred to be a win-early type. He still winds up breaking from the outside and may wind up with another wide trip. Experience helps.
#9 CROSSTOWN ROUTE (6-1)
Sire FTS: 16% / 2YO: 40%
Dam/Sibling: CROSSTOWN ROUTE is a half to Inaugural S. winner TOP SEED, who happened to go 3-3 as a 2YO. Three other half siblings raced and won. Two of them as 2YO. Their dam won her only start. She’s a half sister to California Champion 3YO filly GOLDEN BALLET, who is the dam of Belmont Stakes hero DROSSELMEYER.
Trainer/Jock: Richard Violette, Jr. wins with 18% FTS, but he and Ortiz are 0-7 over the last 3 months.
Works: CROSSTOWN ROUTE’s last 3 breezes, all ad AQU, were in the top 3.
Bottom Line: CROSSTOWN ROUTE has the pedigree and connections to get the job done. Don’t care for the jockey/trainer stat, but they’ll win….eventually.
#10 GREENPOINTCRUSADER (5-1)
Sire FTS: 26 / 2YO: 10%
Dam/Sibling: GREENPOINTCRUSADER was a $575K Keeneland Sept. yearling. His family is loaded with blacktype. He’s a full brother to Holy Bull SW and sire ALGORITHMS and a half to the MGSW warriors JUSTIN PHILLIP, SUCCESSFUL MISSION and KEYED ENTRY. A half sister, ALEX'S ALLURE, won the Senorita S. at two. Five out of six of his siblings are 2YO winners.
Trainer/Jock: Dominick Schettino has excellent stats and he and Ortiz have teamed for 1 win in 2 starts.
Works: GREENPOINTCRUSADER worked a 2nd best 5F in 1:01 from the gate at BEL he has a previous gate work bullet of 5F in 1:00. I expect that he can go much faster than that.
Bottom Line: GREENPOINTCRUSADER Is the best bred colt in the field. His sire Bernardiini’s babies only win 10% FTS, but the colt is in good hands with an excellent trainer/jock team. I like him, but his outside post doesn’t help. He’ll have to either waste energy by gunning to the lead or go wide, unless he drops back. For that reason, I’m not selecting him. If there are scratches and he moves in USE HIM.
SELECTIONS:
Note: if one of the top 4 scratch, use #10 GREENPOINTCRUSADER as an alternate.
#7 SHOW BOUND (4-1)
#6 SARATOGA MISCHIEF (9-2)
#2 DEEP IN A DREAM (20-1)
#3 HORNER MAN (15-1)