Royal Mo Looking for a Triple in Rebel Stakes

Over the last sixteen years, the Rebel Stakes has produced a roll call of elite stars that figure prominently in the Triple Crown events.  Fans at Oaklawn have seen the likes of American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Lookin at Lucky, Oxbow and Creator compete in the 1 1/16 mile Grade 2 event.  Steppenwolfer and Ride on Curlin, placed in the Rebel, plus the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, respectively. 

A field of eleven 2017 Kentucky Derby contenders are primed to contest the Rebel Stakes, The winner will earn 50 points towards a reservation in the Derby starting gate.

This year, Baffert’s hopes lie with American Anthem (Bodemeister - Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy). Is American Anthem good enough to give Baffert his fourth consecutive Rebel Stakes trophy? As much as I like this horse, I’ll say not this time.

In January, American Anthem gave Grade 1 Stakes hero Gormley all he could handle in the Sham Stakes. Gormley’s experience earned him the victory by a short nose.  The Grade 3 contest was essentially a one mile match race over an uncharacteristically muddy track at Santa Anita. In in the San Felipe Stakes last week, Gormely could manage no better than a tired, distant fourth place against the tragically brilliant Mastery.

Warning signs for the Rebel favorite? I wonder how much the fight with Gormley took out of American Anthem.

Additionally, American Anthem is making his third career start in the Rebel. His speed figure (Bris) jumped eight points from his maiden win to the Sham Stakes. Yes, American Anthem has two sharp works, but his final breeze with Mor Spirit was just so-so, and he was under pressure to stay with Mor Spirit past the wire.

I love American Anthem’s pedigree, but his late pace speed figures hit a sour note and there are too many warning signs that he may regress. Read American Anthem’s pedigree profile.

Untrapped (Trappe Shot - Exit Three, by Giant's Causeway) was second in the LeComte and Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. His speed figures have improved with each start and he owns the highest late pace speed figure in the field. Steve Asmussen gives the colt a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz, Jr., plus the change of scenery could result in victory.

Petrov (Flatter - Saracina, by Bertrando) was beaten like a roan headed stepchild, first by Uncontested in the Smarty Jones and then by One Liner in the Southwest. Ron Moquett’s charge likes to stalk the pace, but is developing a bad case of second-itis. Petrov’s speed figures are improving with every start and he tries hard.

Uncontested (Tiz Wonderful - Galileo's Star, by Lil E. Tee) eagerly threw down fast early fractions in the Southwest Stakes while Channing Hill had his feet on the dashboard. By mid-stretch, Uncontested felt the draft as Petrov and One Liner blew by. Uncontested staggered across the finish a dozen lengths back. Despite being on the lead Uncontested just doesn’t relax. This plays against him in the long run. Save him for sprinting. 

Appalachian Gem (Gemologist - Briar Hill Dixie, by Dixieland Band) was a determined winner in his first try around two turns, and he has the pedigree to improve with maturity and some distance. Not much class in Appalachian Gem’s first two generations, but his third dam won the Marion Van Berg Memorial Hcp. Guess who trains Appalachian Gem? Jack Van Burg. And when was the last time you saw Gary Stevens on a 30-1 shot? Call me nostalgic, but I’m rootin’ for the old timers.

Sonneteer (Midnight Lute - Ours, by Half Ours) is a career maiden. But don’t be so quick to dismiss him. Sonneteer’s unraced dam is a half-sister to Hopeful (G1) winner Dublin. Sonneteer owns the second highest late pace speed figure in the field and his one-run style plays against him on the California tracks. Could he be a live longshot or is he this year’s Laoban?

Silver Dust (Tapit - Filare l'Oro, by Hard Spun) ate a lot of dust in the Southwest. He spent most of his time in traffic and passed tired horses to get a minor award a dozen lengths behind One Liner. Maybe he shook some of the dust off in his first 3YO start, but I think he’ll run into some dust busters here. He could step up for a minor award with an easier trip. Silver Dust’s dam won the 1 1/8 mile Virginia Oaks over the lawn and she’s a half-sister to the hard-knocking veteran handicap horse Gouldings Green. Perhaps a surface change will bring out the shine for Silver Dust.