Rebel Analysis: 3 colts with a chance to beat Newgrange

The $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) is the third of Oaklawn Park's four prep races for the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and the 1 1/16-mile contest awards a points scale of 50-20-10-5.

This year, a field of 11 3-year-old colts is entered. The top four finishers from the Southwest Stakes return, and Un Ojo, the long shot runner-up in the Withers (G3), ships in from New York.

Let's take a look at the field.

Rebel Stakes history could repeat itself for the third time. Since 2010, Bob Baffert has twice won the race three consecutive times, from 2010 to 2012 and again in 2013 to 2015. The silver-haired trainer captured the 2020 Rebel with Nadal and returned to last year's winner's circle with Concert Tour.

This year, Baffert's undefeated Newgrange (9-5) has an excellent chance to complete the hat trick. Newgrange looked like an also-ran in the stretch of the Southwest, but he found another gear and closed to beat the Barber Road by 1 1/2 lengths, with Ben Diesel and a weakening Kavod following. Win contender.

Chasing Time (8-1) outclassed optional claimers by 7 3/4 lengths in his last race. The trio that finished behind him each owned one victory in multiple starts. In his start before that, the Steve Asmussen trainee placed a distant six-length second to In Dreams. That one returned to finish fourth in the Swale Stakes. Now Not This Time's son gets a class test and tries two turns. He also gets his sixth jockey in as many starts. Cautiously optimistic that Chasing Time will catch the competition. Win contender.

Ethereal Road (12-1) couldn't have been more impressive in his last start. He hesitated and stumbled slightly at the start of the maiden special event and wound up 16 lengths behind the field. Luis Contreras gave him time to settle and find his best stride. Ethereal Road found that stride and swept by the field to win by four lengths under a hand ride. Wayne Lukas takes a shot at graded competition, and this son of Quality Road and half-brother to Grade 3 winner Turned Aside could be up to the task. According to Stats Race Lens, Wayne Lukas has 12 percent winners over the last five years and 29 percent in the money from last-out maiden winners. The veteran trainer is seventh by earnings at this Oaklawn meet. Lukas is sneaky, and don't put it past him to score with a live longshot win contender.

Stellar Tap (10-1) takes another shot at graded-stakes competition in his second start of the year. The pretty gray son of Tapit had an excuse as the beaten favorite in his last start at Fair Grounds and had to race in traffic for much of the one-mile race. However, he got clear late and kept going and was beaten a neck for second place. The winner, Pioneer of Medina, finished a close fourth in the Risen Star in his next start. If Cristian Torres can keep the Asmussen trainee out of trouble, we could have a live longshot win contender.

Barber Road (9-2) made a sustained five-wide drive and made steady improvement down the lane in the Southwest. The John Ortiz trainee is a steady one-paced sort, who finished second in his last three starts. I predict a similar path for Race Day's son in the Rebel. Exotics.

Dash Attack (8-1) looked good winning the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes by four lengths over Barber Road. However, he retreated with a one-paced effort in the Southwest. Munnings's son fired consecutive bullets in preparation for the Rebel. The Ken McPeek trainee has a couple of questions to answer. Will he return to his Smarty Jones form? Does he want to run two turns? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and add him to the exotics pile.  

Cairama (15-1) made a decent effort in the sloppy Smarty Jones Stakes. He broke slow and was 10 1/4 lengths back at the start. Geovanni Franco took Cairama up the rail, then was stuck behind horses when switching out in the stretch. The Asmussen trainee passed tired horses and finished 4 1/2 lengths behind Dash Attack, and he returned to post a sharp second-to-last breeze for this race. He's another one-paced grinder who, with a good trip, might hit the lower exotics, but I'm not expecting much.

Kavod (12-1) has early speed on the rail. He may have company, but the Chris Hartman trainee with take them as far as he can go, which I suspect is about six furlongs. Toss.

Withers Stakes runner-up Un Ojo (12-1) cuts back in distance in his second start off the layoff. Initially penciled in for the Gotham Stakes, Un Ojo's connections didn't want to cut back to a mile, so the Tony Dutrow trainee shipped to Oaklawn. He'll run for Ricky Corville, his original trainer. This son of Laoban is a one-run grinder bred to run all day, and he'll need a very fast pace and more speed to be competitive here. Toss.

Texas Red Hot (12-1) makes his 3-year-old debut after finishing an ice-cold tenth, beaten 14 lengths in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Last year, his two worst finishes were against stakes competition, and his victory against optional claimers wasn't visually impressive. However, his dam is a multiple stakes-placed turf miler, so perhaps a surface switch would suit. Toss.

Analysis

The last three Rebel winners were pacesetters, and Bob Baffert conditioned two. In fact, five of Baffert's last seven winners set the pace, one pressed and the last closed.

Most of the Rebel winners gained ground in their last start, and since 2019, only two didn't hit the board in their previous start.

There isn't a "need the lead" type in the Rebel. Kavod has speed on the rail; however, Newgrange is next to him and will be forwardly placed. Chasing Time will also be forwardly placed.

Newgrange (9-5)

Chasing Time (8-1)

Ethereal Road (12-1)

Stellar Tap (10-1)