Risen Star analysis: Is Smile Happy another Gun Runner?

The 2022 Kentucky Derby trail gets steeper this week as race distances lengthen and the winning qualifying points jump from ten to fifty.

The $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) closes out a stakes-filled Saturday at the Fair Grounds. The third of four Fair Grounds qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby, the Risen Star attracted a field of ten who will stretch to 1 1/18 miles.

Three runner-ups from the Lecomte Stakes (G3) hope to improve their result, and the event includes the highly anticipated return of Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Smile Happy.

Let's look at the class, form and pedigrees to discover the rising stars.

Smile Happy (7-2) was undefeated in two starts last year, including a dominating win in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Three rivals returned to win stakes in their first start of the season. The Ken McPeek trainee posted a trio of five-furlong works at Gulfstream, including a five-furlong move in 59.52 without being asked. By Runhappy out of a daughter of Pleasant Tap, Smile Happy should handle 1 1/8 furlongs but picked a tough spot for his 3-year-old debut, facing foes with recent form. According to Stats Race Lens, McPeek has a 13 percent win rate off the layoff. That being said, I must consider Smile Happy a win contender because of the strength of last year's form.

Zandon (9-2) answered the distance question in the Remsen Stakes (G2) in December. He gave it his all while racing in close quarters pinned to the rail by Mo Donegal. The Chad Brown trainee refused to yield yet wound up second by a nose in the photo finish. Mo Donegal returned to finish a troubled third in the Holy Bull (G3). Brown's charges win 27 percent off the layoff. Interestingly, Mo Donegal's jock, Irad Ortiz Jr., jumps aboard Zandon for the Risen Star. Win contender.

Epicenter (4-1) ran his heart out in the Lecomte, and just when he put away Pappacap and looked like the winner, he was nailed by the fast-closing Call Me Midnight. It was a tough beat for the Steve Asmussen trainee, who previously dominated the Gun Runner Stakes by 6 1/2 lengths. The waters get deeper in the Risen Star, and the confirmed pacesetter must carry his speed an extra half-furlong. By Not this Time, out of a stakes-winning daughter of Candy Ride, Epicenter should be up to the task. Win contender.

After beating maidens at Tampa in December, Pioneer of Medina (10-1) bested allowance class rivals at Fair Grounds. The Todd Pletcher trainee was paired with Swale (G2) winner My Prankster in a January breeze and was niggled near the end to keep up with his rival. This son of Pioneerof the Nile, out of a stakes-winning daughter of Eskendereya, should handle 1 1/8 miles, and his speed ratings are on the upswing. Pletcher seeks his first Risen Star victory since 2014. Long-shot win contender.

Slow Down Andy (9-2), the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner, ships in from California for his 3-year-old debut. Since November, the Doug O'Neill trainee has been logging the furlongs – five furlongs, to be exact – so he should be in shape. There are high expectations for Slow Down Andy. His foes in the Los Alamitos Futurity included Messier, a 15-length winner of the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his next start, and Barossa, who recently placed second in an allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn in his first start for Rodolphe Brisset. By Nyquist out of a daughter of Square Eddie, Slow Down Andy might find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance range, especially if he gets a wide trip. Exotics.

Pappacap  (4-1) scraped the paint on the rail in the Lecomte and had every opportunity to win. He fought with Epicenter down the stretch but refused to pass. The Mark Casse trainee has placed second or third in his last three starts. Although he should handle the extra distance and has talent, he appears to be a "polite horse" who lets others go first. Exotics.

Bodock (10-1), a full brother to Sunland and Iowa Derby winner Hence, is an undefeated Brad Cox trainee. He won his November debut in Indiana and returned this year to beat allowance-class runners in a sneaky good fashion, splitting horses in the stretch and turning back a late challenge to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths. He finished six furlongs in 1:12.21 over a sloppy track. The Brad Cox trainee's late-pace speed rating of 90 puts him in contention. Exotics.

Trafalgar (10-1) staggered down the stretch of the Lecomte like it was the final stages of an all-night pub crawl. He was in position to win in mid-stretch but couldn't make headway and finished fourth. As a result, Al Stall Jr. outfits Trafalgar with a shiny new set of blinkers. Stats Race Lens shows that this move works 12 percent of the time for the barn in the last five years. By Grade 1-winning sprinter Lord Nelson out of a Dixie Union mare, Trafalgar may find 1 1/8 miles a bit too far. Toss.

Tawny Port (12-1) hung on to win by a neck against allowance-class runners at Turfway in his last start. He benefited from an early speed duel that saw the pacesetters get the half in 46.70, but the pace slowed and Tawny Port finished his final furlong of the 1 1/16 mile race in 12.97. The team of Cox and Florent Geroux won the last two editions of the Risen Star but appear up against it here. Toss.

Russian Tank (50-1) has one win in eight career starts, which was a mile over the lawn. He was stuck in a rut in his last two starts, beaten a combined 18 3/4 lengths. Nyet, brosat, no. Toss.

Analysis

In the last decade, two favorites have won, while two others placed third. All except one (Gun Runner) gained ground in the stretch of their last race.

One time, the pacesetter won, while the rest either pressed the pace or made their move from mid-pack or farther back.

Since 2008, only two Risen Star winners (Pyro 2008 and Gun Runner 2016) didn't benefit from a recent race. So, is Smile Happy in the same class as Gun Runner? There's nothing in his form that says he isn't.

If he gets a clear lead and Joel Rosario can ration his speed, Epicenter could be dangerous on the front end. But it is likely that Pioneer of Medina could join or press Epicenter, setting the race up for a closer.

Two horses, Pioneer of Medina and Bodock, fit the profile of nine of the last 10 Risen Star winners. They have the benefit of a recent race in which they gained ground. Bodock can settle off the pace, and Pioneer of Medina has a pacesetter/presser style plus the benefit of a two-turn race under his girth. Both enter for high-percentage winning stables.

8. Smile Happy (7-2)

6. Pioneer of Medina (10-1)

7. Zandon (9-2)

5. Epicenter (4-1)