Predicting Breeders' Cup Juvenile Success

Graded stakes competitions for two year old colts and fillies are underway. Some of these races have a long, prestigious history. With the advent of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile races way back in 1984, a shift has taken place. While it's a selling point for breeders to have these races listed on a potential stallion or broodmare's resume, many owners and trainers aren't content to win “just” the Hopeful Stakes or Del Mar Debutante. The stakes races have become prep races along the path to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the most formful two year old races that have produced the most winners in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile over the past twelve years.

Champagne Stakes (G-1) (1 mile) Belmont Park – one of the oldest and most prestigious races for two year olds in the U.S., the Champagne was held at 1 1/6 miles from 1994 – 2004. It was shortened to a mile in 2005. Eight of the last twelve years the winners/runners-up in the Champagne have won/placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Note that in 2008 and 2009 when the Juvenile was contested over the Pro-Ride that none of the dirt runners fared well.

Dixiana Breeders Futurity (G-1) (1 1/16 miles) Keeneland - Formerly named the Lanes' End Breeders' Futurity (1997 – 2008), the race has been contested at 1 1/16 miles since 1981. The race has been contested over Polytrack since 2006. That was the first and only year the top three in the Dixiana swept the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Frontrunner Stakes (G-1) (1 1/6 miles) Santa Anita – Formally known as the Norfolk Stakes (G-1) until 2011, the race was held during the Oak Tree Meet at Santa Anita until 2009. It moved to Hollywood Park for two years (2010 – 2011) then back to Santa Anita in 2012 and re-named. The race has been contested at 1 1/16 miles since 2002. It was held at a mile between 1997 – 2001. Originally a Grade 1 race, the designation was switched to a Grade 2 in 1993, but re-gained Grade 1 status in 2007. 2000-2006 (Dirt) 2007 (Cushion Track) 2008 -2009 (Pro-Ride) 2010 – 2012 (dirt).

Del Mar Futurity (G-1) (7F) Del Mar – Held on Polytrack since 2007.

Kentucky Cup Juvenile (ungraded) (1 1/16 miles Turfway Park – Formerly a G-3 race and downgraded in 2009. The race wasn't held in 2009 – 2010 and 2012 due to economic constraints. The race has been contested on Polytrack since 2006.

In the last twelve years, the winners and runners-up in three major races, the Champagne, Dixiana Breeders' Futurity and Frontrunner Stakes perform the best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Don't forget the Europeans. Three European horses have won and one finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. 2001 – Johannesburg, 2004 – Wilko, 2009 - Vale of York – winners; 2002 – Hold That Tiger, third.

It's important to note that the East Coast horses have done very well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita since the track switched back to dirt. Yes, the race is still almost three months away. However, keep an eye on the eventual winners of the above races for they will determine the shape of the Breeders' Cup and year end honors.