Pedigree stars: Well-bred fillies clash in Schuylerville showdown

The $175,000 listed Schuylerville Stakes starts the celebration of the 40-day 2024 Saratoga racing meet on Thursday. The six-furlong main event on opening day attracted 11 2-year-old fillies.

The first-crop sire race is heating up, as the top three leading sires,  Complexity, Vekoma and Thousand Words, are represented in the Schuylerville as is the multiple-graded placed stallion, Caracaro.

The Astoria Stakes top pair Whatintheliteral and Aoraki face off again, and Astoria also-rans West Memorial and The Queen's M G hope to improve their performance.

Last-out maiden winner Complexion, a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 hero Jack Christopher, also is part of the lineup.

Carded as race 10 of 11, they'll load into the gate at 6:16 p.m. EDT. As of this writing, there's a 50 percent chance of rain.

1. Aoraki, 8-1, Dominus - Mountain Music, by Maclean's Music

After besting a restricted maiden group at Churchill Downs that yielded a next-out winner, Aoraki shipped to Saratoga and faced Whatintheliteral, West Memorial and The Queen's M G in the Astoria Stakes. The listed contest evolved into a match with Whatintheliteral. Aoraki fought hard, but Whatintheliteral proved too stubborn, keeping her head in front.

The first of Steve Asmussen's two entries, Aoraki earned an 85 Brisnet rating, three points higher than her debut.

In a pre-race five-furlong breeze in 1:02, the third best of 10, Aoraki outworked stablemate Three Echoes, who was third in the Tremont Stakes. She was moving easier of the pair, and Three Echoes was aggressively ridden after the wire to catch her to no avail.

Race Lens shows Asmussen's 2-year-old dirt sprinters win at 19 percent in the last five years, and Joel Rosario has a 16 percent win rate in dirt sprints over the last year.

Pedigree: Race Lens shows Dominus is an above-average sire of juveniles, with 21 percent winners and an average 16 percent off-track winners.

Aoraki is the first foal and black-type earner out of her dam. Class skips to the third generation of her female family and includes a mix of dirt and turf black-type earners, including Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) hero Gun Pilot, plus multiple graded winners A P Warrior and Global View.

2. West Memorial, 20-1, Caracaro - Vita Bella, by Super Saver

West Memorial began her career with a head loss to The Queen's M G. A month later, she beat the boys by 1 3/4 lengths in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes.

She shipped to George Weaver's Saratoga barn and started in the Astoria under his assistant, Peter Gulyas. West Memorial bumped hard between rivals during the race and faded to fifth, earning a 66 speed rating.

West Memorial posted two moderate post-race breezes. Her first work back was slightly faster than previously, which is a good sign that she may bounce back.

George Weaver's 2-year-olds have a 13 percent win rate over the last five years. Manny Franco takes over the reins and wins with 17 percent dirt sprinters. He also may hustle West Memorial out of the gate.

Pedigree: Uncle Mo's lightly raced son Caracaro was second in the Peter Pan (G3) and Travers (G1). West Memorial is her sire's initial starter and first stakes winner. Caracaro has one third-place finisher on off tracks.

Her unraced dam is half to Hollywood Derby hero Mo Town, his full sister, stakes-placed Champagne Lady, and to stakes winner and multiple graded placed sprinter-miler Justique.

3. Sherbini, 9-2, Cairo Prince - Shady Violence, by Violence

Sherbini was content to tailgate the pace in her Churchill debut before circling five wide. She was a little erratic down the stretch but never lost focus, targeting and passing the tired pacesetter and clearing by 3 1/2 lengths under a hand ride by Florent Geroux.

Sherbini traveled 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:03.78, with a 6.21-second half-furlong, and recorded an 87 speed rating. Her 87 late-pace figure is the second highest in the Schuylerville.

Sherbini posted a 48.82-second four-furlong work at Saratoga, the third best of 20 for the day in a pre-race move for the Schuylerville.

Mark Casse captured the 2018 Schuylerville with Catherinethegreat, but his last-out, maiden-winning 2-year-olds shipping to a different track have won 14 percent over the previous five years, and at Saratoga, only one of eight starters hit the board.

Over the last year, Florent Geroux has recorded a 20 percent win rate in sprints.

Pedigree: Race Lens shows Cairo Prince is an average sire of juveniles, with 13 percent winners and an average 15 percent off-track winners.

Sherbini is the third foal and first filly out of her dam. She's also the first winner in the immediate family. Class skips to the third generation of her female family. Her third dam, Smokey Glacken, was a hardy four-year veteran of 19 starts and earned $656,960 while competing in multiple graded sprint events. Smokey Glacken's half-brother was 1997 Champion Sprinter and sire Smoke Glacken.

4. Slang, 10-1 Omaha Beach - Sunbury, by Speightstown

Slang showed speed and fade in her debut over Churchill's sloppy main track.

Slang pressed the pace between rivals in her second start and turned back a challenge from the horse on her outside, crossing the wire 1 1/¼ lengths to the good. Slang was pressed every step of the 5 1/2 furlongs and completed the race in 1:04.37 with a 6.71 half-furlong. The effort earned her an 84 speed rating.

Slang has posted a steady series of four-furlong moves in the 48- to 49-second range, taking the blinkers off for the Schuylerville.

Norm Casse's last-out, maiden-winning 2-year-olds shipping to a different track win at 80 percent over the last five years, including 2021 Schuylerville winner Pretty Birdie and last year's Saratoga Special hero Rhyme Schemes.

In the last year, Ricardo Santana, Jr. has posted a 13 percent win rate in sprints.

Pedigree: Race Lens shows Omaha Beach is an above-average sire of juveniles with 21 percent winners and an average 15 percent off-track winners.

Slang is the third winner and first filly in her immediate family. Her dam is half to Frizette Stakes (G1) runner-up Central Avenue, and Slang's second dam, Centering, is multiple Grade 1-placed at 1 1/8 miles. Slang's third dam, Composure, captured the Oak Leaf (G1) at two and placed in the 2002 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies behind champion Storm Flag Flying. Composure returned at 3 to win the Las Virgenes (G1).

5. Complexion, 7-2, Complexity - Rushin No Blushin, by Half Ours

Despite a slight bobble at the start of her debut, Complexion bounded out to lead the herd by a length and was never threatened, winning the five-furlong maiden event by 6 1/2 lengths in 58.20 seconds, with an 11.79-second final furlong. The flashy chestnut recorded a 77 Brisnet rating.

The Danny Gargan trainee continued her brilliance in a pre-race four-furlongs breeze in 49.25 seconds with Shiny Lure, who was unplaced in her debut. Complexion outworked her mate by about a half-length without being asked.

In the last five years, Gargan has compiled a 33 percent win rate with last-out maiden winners. John Velazquez is winning dirt sprints at 21 percent, and he's captured the Schuylerville five times.

Pedigree: Leading first-crop sire Complexity won the Champagne Stakes (G1) and returned two years later to capture the Kelso Handicap (G2) and place in the Forego (G1). Currently, he has nine winners from 15 runners. Five of his foals have encountered an off track, yielding one winner and a runner-up.

A $400,000 Keeneland September yearling, Complexion is best known as multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter Jack Christopher's little sis. Their dam is half to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and sire Street Boss.

6. Carmen's Candy Jar, 6-1 Vino Rosso - No Mo Shopping, by Uncle Mo

Carmen's Candy Jar made short work of three rivals in her debut against state-breds at Aqueduct. She was content to tailgate the pacesetter for the first few furlongs but was blocked around the far turn.

Irad Ortiz Jr. found a hole and moved Carmen's Candy Jar out in mid-stretch, but Carmen's Candy Jar didn't want to move away from the third-place horse until that one tired. Once clear, Carmen's Candy Jar picked up the pace and reached the wire a length in front. She completed five furlongs in 58.53 seconds with a sharp 12.29-second final furlong and earned an 81 speed rating.

Carmen's Candy Jar turns around in 18 days. Todd Pletcher is 0-9 with four in the money with the last-out maiden to stakes winner with a quick turnaround at Saratoga.

In the last five years, Todd Pletcher has compiled a 15 percent win rate with last-out, 2-year-old maiden winners in dirt sprints.

Pletcher has captured the Schuylerville Stakes six times, the last in 2016 with Sweet Loretta, and his last Schuylerville one to hit the board was in 2019.

Ortiz wins dirt sprints 21 percent of the time and won his first Schuylerville trophy in 2022 with Just Cindy.

Pedigree: Race Lens shows Vino Rosso is an average sire of juveniles, with 13 percent winners and below-average 11 percent off-track winners.

A Repole Stable homebred, Carmen's Candy Jar is the first foal out of No Mo Shopping, an unraced full sister to stakes winner Mo Shopping, who also finished third in the Delaware Oaks (G3). No Mo Shopping's half-sister Always Shopping is a multiple-graded winner over dirt and turf from 1 1/16 to 1 1/2 miles. Carmen's Candy Jar's second dam, Stopshoppingmaria, was second in the Frizette (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and later captured the Ladies Turf Sprint at Gulfstream.

7. Dreamgirl, 15-1, Mo Town - Box Office Smash, by Dixie Union

In a maiden event at Churchill, Dreamgirl chased the pacesetter down the backstretch, then the pair had a spirited duel through the lane, with Dreamgirl winning the argument by two lengths.

It was a professional debut, and Dreamgirl completed five furlongs in 58.12 seconds, with a 12.75-second final furlong, which earned her an 82 speed rating. The race yielded a winner and runner-up from four next-out runners.

Dreamgirl had a pre-race, four-furlong spin around Saratoga's dirt track in 50:56 seconds 

Mike Maker has an eye-catching 31 percent win rate with 2-year-old, last-out maiden winners taking on stakes competition. At Saratoga, he's had a stakes winner and runner-up from four starters in the last five years.

Luis Saez has an 18 percent win rate with dirt sprinters.

Pedigree: Race Lens shows Mo Town is an average sire of juveniles with 15 percent winners with an average 15 percent off-track winners.

Dreamgirl is the third winner in her immediate family. Her dam Box Office Smash is a half-sister to Met Mile (G1) hero and sire Bee Jersey.

8. Whatintheliteral, 10-1, Lord Nelson - Lilikoi, by Freud

Whatintheliteral broke sharply in the Astoria Stakes and fought head-and-head with Aoraki. Still, about a half-furlong from the wire, Whatintheliteral realized she won the head game with Aoraki because Whatintheliteral's ears went from a competitive flat back to one ear straight and the other half-cocked, meaning she had more in the tank and knew Aoraki was put in her place.

Whatintheliteral completed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:05.06 with a 6.72-second final half-furlong, earning an 85 career-best Brisnet rating.

In the last five years, Jena Antonucci has a 13 percent win rate with last-out maiden winners, but only three were 2-year-olds, and they didn't hit the board.

Javier Castellano is a three-time winner of the Schuylerville. He surprised with last year's long-shot winner, Becky's Joker. Over the last year, he's won dirt sprints at 13 percent.

Pedigree: Race Lens shows Lord Nelson is an above-average sire of juveniles, with 17 percent winners, and he's a superior off-track sire, with 20 percent winners.

Whatintheliteral is the third winner and first black-type earner in her immediate family. Her dam Lilikoi is a half-sister to Manchurian High, a veteran of 51 starts.

9. Long Neck Paula, 8-1, Uncle Mo - Take Charge Paula, by Take Charge Indy

In her debut at Churchill, Long Neck Paula broke from the 11 post, cleared the field, grabbed the lead and never looked back, winning by 3 1/2 lengths under a hand ride. She zipped four furlongs in 51.56 seconds, with a final half-furlong in 6.01 seconds, earning an 85 speed rating.

She bested a weak field; only one of seven returning rivals won in their next outing. Long Neck Paula takes the blinkers off for the Schuylerville.

A master trainer of juveniles, Wesley Ward's last-out maiden winners return to the winner's circle 17 percent of the time in dirt sprints. His last-out maiden-to-stakes juveniles in dirt sprints yields only 9 percent winners. But three of four have hit the board at Saratoga.

Since her debut, Long Neck Paula has posted a trio of four-furlong works in the 48 range, including a second-to-last 48:00-second bullet from the Saratoga training track gate. Her last breeze was a stamina-building five furlongs in 1:03.24.

Flavien Prat has a 22 percent win rate with dirt sprinters.

Pedigree: Race Lens shows Uncle Mo is an above-average sire of juveniles, with 17 percent winners and 16 percent off-track winners.

Selected by Wesley Ward for $500,000 at the OBS March sale of 2-year-olds in training, Long Neck Paula is the third foal and second winner in her immediate family. As a 2-year-old, her dam Take Charge Paula won two stakes and placed in the Matron (G3). She's a Grade 3 winner and multiple graded-placed sprinter.

10. Viggiedal, 9-2, Vekoma - Minnelli, by Unbridled's Song

The second Asmussen entry, Viggiedal flashed her sire's speed in her Churchill debut. The pretty gray filly took command from the outset, with Christian Torres just aboard for the ride. Viggiedal streaked under the wire five lengths in front.

She traveled five furlongs in 57.26 seconds, less than a second off the 56.41 track record set in 2016, and completed her final furlong in 11.82 seconds, earning a 91 speed rating, the highest in the Schuylerville field. One of her rivals placed in their next start.

Viggiedal returned to the worktab with an easy five furlongs in 1:03.69 over Saratoga's dirt training track. She posted a pre-race three-furlong breeze in 37.88 seconds.

Tyler Gaffalione has a 19 percent win rate with dirt sprinters.

Pedigree: Candy Ride's son Vekoma is a multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter-miler who successfully carried his speed 1 1/8 miles in the 2019 Blue Grass Stakes (G2). He's currently second on the first-crop sire leaderboard with 10 winners from 16 runners. But one of three of his offspring has hit the board on an off track.

Viggiedal is bred on the successful Candy Ride-Unbridled's Song cross, which has produced three stakes winners, including Clark Handicap (G1) winner Leofric.

Viggiedal is the third winner in as many foals in her immediate family. Her dam Minnelli is half to Grade 3-winning router Wow Me Free and stakes-winning miler Likely Exchange. Viggiedal's third dam, multiple graded winner Triple Wow, bore the spectacular Alywow, Canada's horse of the year, champion grass horse and champion 3-year-old filly in 1997.

11. The Queens M G, 30-1, Thousand Words - Show Queen, by Grindstone

After lighting up the tote with a $92.74 upset victory by a head over West Memorial and Whatintheliteral in their Keeneland spring debut, Queens M G was sold by her owner-trainer Israel Acevedo.

The Queens M G wasn't so fortunate in her next start, facing rivals Whatintheliteral and West Memorial in the Astoria Stakes.

As the favorite in her first start for Saffie Joseph Jr., The Queens M G bumped at the break, was three wide most of the way and had to go six wide around the turn. She ducked in twice down the stretch, bumping with a rival, ran out of oats and trotted home last, bested 18 lengths by Whatintheliteral.

The Queens M G recorded only one work in the last month, a slow four-furlong move in 50.05 seconds.

In the last five years, Joseph has had two wins in nine starts with juveniles making their second start off the layoff in dirt sprints, both at Gulfstream Park.

Dylan Davis has a 16 percent win rate with dirt sprinters.

Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile's son Thousand Words is third on the first-crop sire list. He has six winners from 16 starters, including recent Debutante Stakes heroine Vodka With a Twist. Thousand Words is starting out as an excellent mud sire, with three winners and a runner-up from six starters, including Vodka With a Twist.

The Queens M G is the second foal and second winner in her immediate family. Class skips to the third generation of her distaff line to multiple graded winner and producer Parade Queen, best known as the second dam of the sire Bodemeister, the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner who was runner-up in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Parade Queen is also the second dam of multiple Grade 1 heroine She's A Julie.

Race keys

There's a clear pattern in the Schuylerville Stakes history. Only two fillies hadn't won their previous start since 1998. Call Me Up was a troubled seventh in the 1998 Astoria, and last year, Becky's Joker made her racing debut in the Schuylerville and fooled the field with a 3 1/4-length win, paying $44.40.

The previous dozen Schuylerville heroines won their last start by 2 1/4 lengths or more. Only a trio had faced the starter more than once, and two stakes winners added to their resume with a Schuylerville victory.

Pace pressers and setters won 10 times. Three favorites won. The last was in 2014, but don't leave them off your tickets because only two placed worse than fourth.

Posts 1 through 6 are the places to be, and outside posts are a definite handicap.

So, Schuylerville history overwhelmingly favors last-out maiden winners making their second start. All but one was shipped from a track outside of New York, either Churchill, Gulfstream, Monmouth, Santa Anita or Parx.

This year, tour fillies fit the historical profile of winning their debut by 2 1/4 lengths or more.

The well-bred Complexion couldn't have won her debut any easier. That, along with her pedigree, high win-percentage trainer and jockey, make her the obvious favorite. We'll learn if Complexion lives up to the hype.

Viggiedal wowed in her debut, scoring by 10 lengths. The only drawback is that she breaks from post 10 and she might be wide the entire way. Steve Asmussen last visited the Schuylerville winner's circle in 2013 when Brazen Persuasion dead-heated for the victory.

It's hard to say what Sherbini beat in her debut, but she did it the right way. She stayed mostly focused throughout and even a slight improvement could see her in the winner's circle. Mark Casse won the 2018 Schuylerville with Catherinethegreat.

Right next door in post 9, Long Neck Paula shows signs that she'll progress in her next start. A 3 1/2-length debut winner, she drilled a second-to-last bullet at Saratoga. Surprisingly, Wesley Ward seeks his first Schuylerville victory.

The two-length maiden winner Dreamgirl is a live long shot. Mike Maker's 31 percent winners with juveniles making their second start in a stakes is hard to ignore.

Slang, a 1 1/4-length maiden winner, enters for the hot Norman Casse barn. Casse shipped to win juvenile stakes in 2018 and 2023. Slang has experience over an off track, and her speed figures are going the right way. The question is how much her last race took out of her.

Carmen's Candy Jar won her debut by a length against state-breds. The Pletcher-Ortiz combo will lower the 6-1 odds, but she returns in 18 days.

Whatintheliteral hopes to be the second filly since 2014 to pull off the Astoria-Schuylerville double.

Selections

7. Dreamgirl

5. Complexion

9. Long Neck Paula

6. Carmen's Candy Jar