Saratoga 2024: Well-bred fillies clash Sunday in Adirondack

The spotlight is on 2-year-old fillies in Sunday's Grade 3, $200,000 Adirondack Stakes at Saratoga. It the second of a trio of graded contests for the youngsters, which kicked off on opening day with the listed Schuylerville Stakes and cumulates with the Spinaway (G1) on Aug. 31.

The 6 1/2-furlong Adirondack attracted nine 2-year-old fillies, including Schuylerville shocker The Queens M G and Whatintheliteral, who stumbled badly at the start of the Schuylerville and lost her rider. The pair will face Prairie Gold Juvenile heroine White Sands and six last-out maiden winners.

Prairie Gold Juvenile heroine White Sands, the morning-line favorite, was due to be scratched. According to Thoroughbred Daily News, trainer Wesley Ward never was shipped her from Keeneland. Ward said she will be re-aimed for Del Mar to race either in the Sorrento (G3) on Saturday or the Best Pal (G3) next Sunday.

Carded as race 10 of 11, they'll load into the gate at 5:45 p.m. EDT.

1. Whatintheliteral (Lord Nelson - Lilikoi, by Freud), 8-1

Whatintheliteral gets a do-over after stumbling badly at the start of the Schuylerville Stakes. Previously, she fought to a head decision in the Astoria Stakes, which was her first victory in three starts.

The Jena Antonucci trainee recorded a pair of 5-furlong works in 1:01 and change in preparation for the Adirondack Stakes. I wonder how much the stumble shook up Whatintheliteral. She has the grit to fight, so that's a plus. Worth a lower exotics play.

Pedigree: Lord Nelson, a son of Pulpit and a Grade 1-winning sprinter, has only four crops of foals, 310 foals of racing age and eight black type winners, led by Grade 1-winning sprinter Alva Starr. Sadly, he passed from reoccurring laminitis in 2021.    

Whatintheliteral is the third winner and first blacktype earner in her immediate family. Her dam Lilikoi is a half-sister to Manchurian High, a veteran of 51 starts, and earnings of $519,443 as a turf router.

2. Italian Soiree (Uncle Mo - Social Call, by Smart Strike), 9-2

Italian Soiree pressed the pace three-wide in her debut before opening up under a hand ride to beat maidens at Belmont at the Big A by 5 1/4 lengths. She was professional in her debut, and Flavien Prat was just aboard for the ride. The John Terranova, II trainee completed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:05.08, with a final half-furlong in 6.32. One of her rivals returned and was third in her next start. Another positive is that Italian Soiree's 81 Brisnet speed rating was a good start, and she can improve off the effort. Over the last five years, Terranova has one winner from five starters with last-out maiden winners.

She comes into the race off of a pair of four-furlong furlong works at Saratoga. She breezed with the older maiden winner Hagrid's Flame on July 21 in 49.77 seconds. Italian Soiree has high knee action but was moving more smoothly than her mate and outworked him on the gallop out. Italian Soiree should enjoy the extra distance and has the class and speed rating to be a Contender.

Pedigree: Italian Soiree has the breeding and conformation of a 2-turn horse and hails from a classy female family. She's bred on the same Uncle Mo/Smart Strike cross as 2022 Sanford Stakes (G3) hero Mo Strike. She sold for $600,000 at the OBS March sale after breezing 10 flat.

Italian Soiree's full brother, Be Better, captured last year's 1 1/8 mile Deputed Testamony Stakes and has earned $333,300 in 20 starts. Their dam's half-brother, Old Time Hockey, won the La Jolla (G2) and is a multiple stakes-winning turf router. Italian Soiree's extended family includes multiple Grade 1 winner and sire of sires, Scat Daddy.

3. Atomic City (Twirling Candy - Knit One Purr Too, by Tale of the Cat), 8-1

Atomic City was all speed in her Churchill debut. Despite pressure on the lead, her ears were half-cocked through quarters of 21.72, 45.02, and 57.58 seconds. She didn't switch leads until halfway through the stretch, which gave her the momentum to hold off late charges and win by 1 1/4 lengths, getting six furlongs in a sharp 1:10.90 with a 13.32 final quarter. So far, only one of her eight rivals hit the board in their next start, so her competition was questionable. The Eddie Kenneally trainee earned a 78-speed rating for her efforts, and her 78 late pace figure is the lowest in the Adirondack field.

Atomic City has a steady record of 4-furlong works at Churchill, including a pre-race bullet breeze in 47.0 seconds. Atomic City has early speed but may fizzle in the stretch against this field. Pass.

Pedigree: Atomic City is the second winner out of a stakes-winning turf sprinter and is bred on the same Twirling Candy/Tale of the Cat cross as multiple graded winning sprinter/miler Law Abidin Citizen.

Although there's some minor black type in the second generation of Atomic City, the major class is in the third generation and includes graded winner and sire With Distinction, plus Grade 2 winners Living Vicariously (Brooklyn Handicap), Sightseeing (Peter Pan S.), and Howbeit (Santa Anita Sprint Championship).

4. Dare to Breeze (Daredevil - Enhanced, by Malibu Moon), 8-1

After a speed/fade debut at Churchill, Dare to Breeze shipped to Saratoga. She took command straight out of the gate and galloped around the track like a 1-2 favorite should. With Tyler Gaffalione along for the ride, the Mark Casse trainee opened up by 6 1/4 lengths and completed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:05.20, with a 6.54-second final half-furlong. Two rivals returned, but neither hit the board in their next start. Dare to Breeze's Brisnet speed rating improved to 84; her 85 late-pace figure is the highest in the Adirondack field. Casse's last-out maiden winners hit the board 39 percent of the time and Irad Ortiz, Jr. jumps into the saddle while Gaffalione sticks with Anakarina.

Dare to Breeze posted a tune-up four-furlong work in 51.87 seconds, which was slower than her previous two breezes.

Pedigree: Daredevil has sired eight North American graded/listed winners. The most accomplished are his fillies, the 2020 champion 3-year-old filly Swiss Skydiver and Kentucky Oaks heroine Shedaresthedevil. Dare to Breeze is bred on a similar cross as Shedaresthedevil, as both are out of daughters of A.P. Indy sons.

Dare to Breeze is the fourth foal and second winner in her immediate family. Her half-brother Herd Immunity was third in the 2020 Bashford Manor Stakes (G3). Their dam's full sister bore Grade 1 winning sprinter Kalypso, and Enhanced's full brother Prospective is a multiple-graded winner. Of interest to pedigree geeks, 2018 Adirondack heroine Sue's Fortune is a distant relative.

5. Social Fortress (Social Inclusion - Cold Hearted Pearl, by Parading), 6-1

Social Fortress was a runaway winner at Delaware Park by 11 lengths without being extended. She was professional all the way and completed 5-furlongs in 59.27 seconds, with a 12.66-second final furlong. The race yielded a next-out winner and runner-up. The Jamie Ness trainee earned an 87 speed rating, one of the highest in the Adirondack field. Ness has 16 percent winners from last-out maiden winners and tapped Ricardo Santana, Jr. to ride.

Social Fortress recorded a series of 4-furlong works, including a pre-race bullet in 47 seconds flat. She's taking on a saltier group here but is worth a long-shot look.

Pedigree: Social Fortress is the first foal out of a hardy sprinter/miler veteran of 55 starts in six years. Class in her distaff line jumps to the third generation and includes multiple graded winner and sire Coal Front and multiple graded winning turf router Woodlander.

6. Aguas de Cristal (Volatile - Cedar Hall, by Bayern), 12-1

Aguas de Cristal dueled through 22.66 and 46.26 fractions before drawing clear by 4 1/2 lengths, completing 5 furlongs in 58.82 seconds, with a 12.56-second final furlong in her Monmouth Park debut. However, the Jorge Delgado trainee drifted in the stretch and switched to her left lead about a furlong from home, an indication of tiring. The race yielded a next-out winner from four returning rivals.

Aguas de Cristal recorded a consistent series of 4-furlong works at Monmouth in the 48- to 50-second range. Although Aguas de Cristal received an 83 speed rating, she's facing a tougher group, and Delgado has just 2 returning winners from 17 last-out maiden winners. Pass.

Pedigree: Fifth-ranked first-crop sire Volatile is a Grade 1-winning sprinter and son of Violence.

Aguas de Cristal is the first foal out of a multiple stakes-placed turf miler who owns the only blacktype in three generations of the female family. However, Aguas de Cristal's fifth dam, Image of Reality, is the dam of the great reine-de-course (superior mare) Toussaud, dam of sires Empire Maker, Chester House, Chiselling, Decarchy, and Grade 1 winner and producer, Honest Lady.

7. Anakarina (Vekoma - Tacit Approval, by Tapit), 12-1

Anakarina began her career in mid-May, fading to fifth in a five-furlong maiden event at Churchill. She improved in her next start at 4 1/2 furlongs, taking command out of the gate, quarter-horsing her way to a 3-length victory, and stopping the timer in 51.35 seconds for 4 1/2 furlongs. The race yielded a next-out winner and runner-up. The Dallas Stewart trainee earned an 89 speed rating, an improvement over her debut. Stewart has a 33-percent win rate with last-out maiden winners.

Anakarina recorded a series of steady four-furlong works at Churchill, and her final breeze was a five-furlong spin around Saratoga's training track in 1:01.80, second-best of six for the day. Anakarina has a precocious pedigree and hails from a barn with a high percentage of next-out winners. Contender.

Pedigree: By second-ranked first-crop sire Vekoma, a son of Candy Ride, Anakarina is bred on the solid Candy Ride/Tapit cross that has produced five graded/listed winners, including Hit Show, winner of last year's Withers (G3) and placed in the Wood Memorial (G1).

Anakarina is a half to sprinter-miler Hoist the Gold, who captured the 2023 editions of the Cigar Handicap and Phoenix Stakes. Anakarina's second dam is the precocious Punch Appeal, winner of five juvenile stakes, including the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies and Pocahontas Stakes.

7. The Queens M G (Thousand Words - Show Queen, by Grindstone), 7-2

Ignored at 44-1 in the Schuylerville, The Queens M G pressed the pace three-wide before opening up to win by 2 3/4 lengths. She was professional down the lane other than flagging her tail in annoyance at the pop of the whip. The Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee got six furlongs in an average 1:11.31, with a tepid 13.46-second final furlong.

The Queens M G posted a pre-Adirondack 4-furlong work in company with Baby Sassicaia, a 3-year-old maiden who has placed three times. The Queens M G settled a half-length behind on the inside, then raced as a team through the stretch. The Queens M G moved easier than her mate while under a hold and galloped out in front without being asked. The Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee's 84-speed rating is comparable to her winning debut rating of 86. The trainer's charges win at 33 percent in their third start off a layoff. Contender.

Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile's son Thousand Words is third on the first-crop sire list and is represented by two stakes winners, including Debutante Stakes heroine Vodka With a Twist.

The Queens M G is the second foal and second winner in her immediate family. Class skips to the third generation of her distaff line to multiple graded winner and producer Parade Queen, best known as the second dam of the sire Bodemeister, the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner who was runner-up in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Parade Queen is also the second dam of multiple Grade 1 heroine She's A Julie.

Analysis

Every Adirondack Stakes heroine hit the board in her previous start, with 13 of the last 15 winning their prep and only two losing ground in that race. Pace pressers and setters are most successful in the Adirondack, and only three favorites finished worse than fourth in 15 years.

None of the Schuylerville Stakes winners has prevailed, and only five stakes winners or runners-up have stepped up in the Adirondack in 15 years.

7. Anakarina (12-1)

2. Italian Soiree (9-2)

4. Dare to Breeze (8-1)