Pedigree Stars: Handicapping the Saratoga Special

A deep 12-horse field of 2-year-olds will face off in Saturday’s $200,000 Saratoga Special.

Carded as race 9, the 6 1/2 furlong event is one of four graded stakes on the New York circuit used as a prep for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Most contenders have precocious sprinter/miler pedigrees and might not be around for a shot at the 2022 Kentucky Derby, but you never know.

Two Saratoga Special winners in the last decade won Triple Crown races. Exaggerator (2015) placed second in the Derby and won the Preakness, and Union Rags (2011) finished seventh in the Derby and won the Belmont Stakes.

Race keys

• Ten of the last 11 Saratoga Special victors won their previous start, and nine of the 11 gained ground in the stretch.

• Nine of the last 11 winners broke from posts 1 through 4.

• Five favorites won and three placed.

Let's take a look at the ones most likely to hit the board.

All trainer and jockey stats courtesy of STATS Race-Lens.

The last undefeated Bashford Manor (G3) winner to win the Saratoga Special was the brilliant but fragile Kantharos in 2010. This year, No. 7 Double Thunder will attempt the feat. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez used to be one the most successful trainer/jock combos at Saratoga. They teamed to win the 2013 Saratoga Special with Corfu. But in the last five years at Saratoga, they have teamed for only one win from 16 starters with 2-year-olds in graded stakes. If you can get past that stat, Pletcher’s 2-year-olds have a 19 percent win rate in graded stakes at Saratoga.

No. 2 Gunite shows Brisnet speed figure progression in each of his three starts. He dueled on the lead through quarters of 21.66 and 44.98. After putting away his rival, the Asmussen trainee staved off another challenge to win by 1 1/2 lengths, getting six furlongs in 1:10.1. The fourth-place finisher returned to win next out.

No. 8 Doctor Jeff graduated at first asking over four rivals under a hand ride by Joel Rosario, and the pair were never threatened, winning by 2 1/4 lengths. The Rudy Rodriguez trainee recorded a pre-race bullet five-furlong move of 59.61. In the last five years, Rodriguez’s last-out winners making their second start have won or placed in four of eight starts in graded stakes.

No. 4 Kitodan had a four- to five-wide trip and made a sweeping move around the turn to engage the pacesetter Winging It down the stretch. The pair battled to the wire, and Kitodan prevailed by a nose. By Point of Entry out of a daughter of A.P. Indy, Kitodan has classic distance breeding, and turf could be a strong option down the road. His half-brother Market King was third in the second division of the 2019 Rebel Stakes (G2) behind Omaha Beach and Game Winner. He beat a promising colt in Winging It, a son of Into Mischief and a half-brother to two stakes winners. Jorge Delgado rarely ships but has been in the money with four of 10 shippers in the last five years.

No. 6 Stolen Base was green but game in his debut. After pressing the pace, he wore down the pacesetter, lashing his tail and coming slightly. The Mike Maker trainee won by 1 1/4 lengths on talent and earned the field’s highest late-pace figure of 88. Maker wins with 23 percent of his 2-year-olds next out after winning their debut. He recently employed this tactic with Rick Violette Stakes winner Run Curtis Run.

No. 11 High Oak won at first asking for Bill Mott after rating off the pace. The son of Gormley was a little green but got on track late to win by a head. Only one horse from the race hit the board in their next start, so the verdict is still out on the class of runners that High Oak beat. The son of Gormley should love the extra distance of the Special. Mott gave High Oak a pre-race bullet four-furlong move. Mott has one winner and a second-place finisher from six juvenile last-out maidens making their second start.

Pletcher’s other entry is #5 Midnight Worker. The son of Outwork had to work hard to put away a group of maidens here 21 days ago. He showed the ability to rate off the lead, but his final furlong was a pokey 13.27. Although Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. captured the Sanford Stakes (G3) with Wit, Midnight Worker is not in that one’s class, and he would have to step up here.

Analysis

Double Thunder is the class of the field and undefeated. He has shown tactical speed and is the one to beat.

Gunite has shown tactical speed and improvement in each start. He fits the race keys of having won his last race and breaking from an inside post.

Dr. Jeff and Kitodan were professional in their last starts and could step up.

#2 Gunite
#7 Double Thunder
#8 Doctor Jeff
#4 Kitodan