Pedigree Stars: Handicapping the Bolton Landing Stakes
Saratoga’s feature event on Wednesday is the seventh edition
of the $120,000 Bolton Landing
Stakes.
Carded as the ninth race, the contest attracted a full field
of 10 2-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf course. There is a small chance of rain; if the race is moved to the main track, the
distance will stay the same, and two main-track-only candidates, Averly Jane
and Golden
Bell will draw in.
Looking for a live long shot? In her first start off the layoff, #1 Cartel Queen
(12-1) was wide in the Schuylerville Stakes (G3) and ran out of oats in the
stretch. Now she shortens up and tries the turf. Tom Amoss wins with the dirt-to-turf angle with 2-year-olds 18 percent of the time and recently used the tactic to
win with Take the Backroads, whom Tyler Gaffalione also rode. The rider has a
17 percent win rate in turf sprints this meet. Cairo
Prince 2-year-olds hit the board 50 percent of the time with the switch to turf in
their second start. Live long shot.
#2 Charlee O (8-1)
grabbed the lead in her debut and never
looked back, shocking a full field at 29-1 odds. Manny Franco got her into a
good rhythm throughout, and she refused to yield when challenged, winning by a
stubborn half-length. Only one of her five rivals hit the board in their next
start. Michelle Nevin is hoping for her first turf sprint victory this meet. Toss.
#3 Derrynane (5-1)
graduated by two lengths over a good Saratoga course. Christophe Clemente is having an
outstanding meet with his 2-year-olds. He has had two winners and three in the
money from six starters, four piloted by Joel Rosario. Derrynane recorded a
pre-race bullet three-furlong work. Win contender.
In her debut over a good Belmont course, #4 Flip My Id (8-1)
tracked the pace on the rail, then swung three wide around the turn and passed
the leaders under a hand ride by Irad Ortiz Jr. to win by a comfortable 1
1/2 lengths. Mike Maker is winning turf sprints at a 36 percent rate this meet. But Flip My Id’s speed figures aren’t as high as some in the field, partly because
she wasn’t extended while winning the race. Exotics contender.
The third time was the charm for #5 Poppy Flower (5-2). The Wesley Ward trainee switched to a front-running style, stretching to six furlongs in her last start against the boys. She repelled a late challenge and opened up by two lengths. Poppy Flower’s Bris speed figures have improved in each start, and she shares the highest late-pace speed figure of 88 with Kneesnhips. The drawback is that Ward is winless with 2-year-olds in five turf starts this meet, but three have hit the board. Win contender.
#6 Stand Up Comic
(12-1) is undefeated in both starts and beat the boys over a muddy Delaware
track, dueling throughout and stubbornly refusing to yield to the runner-up. Robert
Reid Jr. has started only one turf sprinter this meet and hopes for his first
winner. Jose Lescano may deliver; he has a 16 percent win rate in turf sprints this
meet. Practical Joke is the second-leading first-crop sire by earnings. He is
following in his sire line’s hoofprints producing precocious, classy offspring.
But so far, his babies are 0-for-2 in turf sprints. Toss.
#7 Kneesnhips (10-1)
was brave in her Ellis Park debut. Last early, she squeezed through a narrow
opening on the rail and was up in time to win her 5 1/2-furlong debut by a
half-length. Her effort earned her the Bolton Landing’s highest late-pace speed
figure of 88, which she shares with Polly Flower. The Ellis Park effort was a key
race, producing a next-out winner and two third-place finishers. Tom Amoss has one
win from two 2-year-old turf runners this meet, and Eric Cancel is winning at a
15 percent clip. Kneesnhips posted a pre-race four-furlong breeze in 47.93 seconds, the second-best
of the day. Exotics Contender.
#8 Fulminate (7-2) ships in from Gulfstream for Mark Casse. In her debut, she sprinted out of the gate and quickly opened up, getting her first quarter in 21.77, and her second quarter in 44.39. Fulminate widened her lead through the stretch and won by four lengths, getting five furlongs in 56.57. She traveled her final furlong in 12.18 while under a hand ride. Two rivals from that race returned to hit the board next time out. Casse is looking for his first turf sprint victory at the Spa this meet. Win contender.
#9 Chi Town Lady (8-1) won her debut on the dirt at Keeneland’s spring meet, opening up to win by three lengths. Three rivals returned to finish off the board in their next start. The Wesley Ward trainee recorded two turf works over the Saratoga lawn. John Velazquez retains the mount, and he is winning turf sprints at a 25 percent clip this meet. Verrazano 2-year-olds win 22 percent with the switch to turf in their second start. Win contender.
#10 Landslid (50-1) is still searching for the winner’s circle after a trio of starts. Although she hit the board in her last two starts, she was beaten a combined 21 lengths. Flashback 2-year-olds are 0-8 with the dirt to turf angle.
Summary
The Bolton Landing drew a competitive field, and half the field won their previous start on the front end. Fulminate is the quickest in the field, and she could grab the lead and keep going. Derrynane would benefit from a lively pace, and Clemente is on fire this meet. Wesley Ward is always dangerous, and his fillies, especially Poppy Flower, have an excellent chance. I can’t ignore the dirt-to-turf sire stats of Verrazano and Cairo Prince, so I’ll toss Chi Town Lady and Cartel Queen into the exotics mix.