Pedigree stars: 2-year-old colts step up in Saratoga Special

On Saturday, the $200,000 Grade 2 Saratoga Special takes its place as the second jewel in Saratoga's notable trio of graded- stakes events for 2-year-old colts, flanked by the prestigious Sanford (G3) and Hopeful (G1).

Over the years, only four talented 2-year-olds have swept the series. This year, the absence of contenders from the Sanford Stakes ensures that this record remains intact.

Nevertheless, the Saratoga Special is a showdown between nine promising contenders, including Smoken Wicked, a solid second-place finisher in the Bashford Manor, and Touchy, a talented runner-up in the Tremont Stakes.

The 6 1/2-furlong Saratoga Special is carded as Saturday's eighth race with a 4:29 p.m. EDT post time. There's a 60 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms, so flip a coin on the main track's condition.

1. Smoken Wicked, 9-2, Bobby's Wicked One - Street Smoke, by Street Boss

In his first start for Dallas Stewart, the tenacious Smoken Wicked placed second in the Bashford Manor after a troubled trip. He broke well and settled mid-pack on the far outside through a 21.41-second first quarter. Smoken Wicked took up as a rival clipped the back of his heel at the five-sixteenths pole but quickly got back into the game. He took an eight-wide tour through the clubhouse and closed resolutely for second place.

Smoken Wicked's Brisnet Speed Rating improved to 79, and he earned a 90 late-pace figure, best in the Saratoga Special.

Smoken Wicked recorded four breezes at Saratoga, including a five-furlong bullet in 1:00.25 on July 20, the best of 10 for the day.

In the last five years, Dallas Stewart shipped four 2-year-olds to Saratoga for stakes, with one hitting the board. Most recently, Anakarina, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, finished sixth in the Adirondack (G3).

Pedigree: Smoken Wicked has sprinter-miler breeding.

First Cop Sire Bobby's Wicked One captured the Commonwealth Stakes (G3) and placed in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Smoken Wicked holds the designation as his sire's first runner and winner.

Smoken Wicked is the second runner and first winner in his immediate family. There's little black type in his family, although his second dam, Magic Smoke, won a stakes as a 2-year-old.

Smoken Wicked is a winner over a sloppy track, plus he overcame trouble in the Bashford Manor. He's had time to recover, but how much did the race take out of him? Exotics.

2. Showcase, 6-1, Uncle Mo - Buy Sell Hold, by Violence

Showcase had a textbook debut at Belmont at the Big A. After pressing the early pace, the Todd Pletcher trainee grabbed the lead and opened up under a hand ride for Irad Ortiz Jr. despite racing greenly. The pretty gray colt bore out around the turn, flagged his tale a few times, and ducked in down the lane. Showcase earned an 82 Brisnet rating, with a middling 83 late-pace figure.

Showcase returned to the work tab with a slow four-furlong move in 50.5 seconds, and overall, his post-race breezes are slower than pre-race. I prefer to see faster post-race moves, an indicator of progression.

He breezed five furlongs in 1:01.92 on July 26 with the unraced Valentinian, an exciting 2-year-old son of Rachel's Valentina, daughter of legendary Rachel Alexandra.

Showcase started inside Valentinian and was moving easier than his rival under a hand ride and drew clear while Valentinian was shown the crop.

Race Lens shows that in the last five years, Todd Pletcher's last-out 2-year-old maiden winners making their second start in Saratoga stakes races don't fare well. He has one winner from 16 starters, but 44 percent have placed second or third.

Pedigree: A $300,000 Keeneland September yearling, Showcase has a precocious sprinter-miler pedigree.

Race Lens shows Uncle Mo is an above-average sire of juveniles, with 17 percent winners and 16 percent off-track winners.

Showcase's dam and half-brother, Bourbon Bash, won or placed in stakes as 2-year-olds, and both placed on sloppy tracks. His dam Buy Sell Hold is a full sister to Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1) winner Volatile. Showcase's third dam is multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Lady Tak.

Showcase likely will be bet down because of the Pletcher-Ortiz pairing, but Race Lens shows that they have one victory from 11 starts this Saratoga meet.

Showcase has talent, but he's green and I'm not impressed with his slow post-race worktab. Todd Pletcher's stats for last-out maiden winners transforming into stakes winners are poor, but Ortiz dominates sprints this meet at 24 percent. Exotics.

3. Global Legend, 12-1, Global Campaign - Im a Dixie Diva, by Henny Hughes

Global Legend graduated at first asking over a sloppy Gulfstream Park strip against state-bred maidens. He grabbed the lead and immediately cleared the field by a length, moving easily with his ears cocked. The Mark Casse trainee turned back a challenge at the one-eighth pole and opened up to win by three lengths. He was professional with a floating stride. Global Legend earned an 81 Brisnet rating with a middling 84 late-pace figure.

Two of Global Legend's rivals returned to win, including a stakes at Colonial, and the other three finished second through fourth in their next start.

Global Legend recorded a trio of works at Saratoga with times comparable to his post-race breezes. On July 28, he breezed five furlongs in 1:01.7 in company with the older listed winner Strong Quality, who is entered in the Fourstardave (G1). Global Legend kept pace with his mate while breezing on the outside. Both were urged slightly down the lane, and Global Legend, ears flat and all business, pulled a half-length in front. This was an excellent work, showing that Global Legend is willing to pass older horses.

In the last five years, Mark Casse's last-out 2-year-old maiden winners hit the board 33 percent of the time in stakes at Saratoga, but they're 0-for-10 entering the winner's circle.

Pedigree: An $80,000 purchase at the OBS winter mixed sale, Global Legend has a classy, precocious pedigree. His conformation suggests he'll be best as a sprinter-miler.

First crop sire Global Legend (Curlin), Bolt d'Oro's half-brother, captured the Woodward (G1) at 1 1/4 miles and was successful from seven furlongs to classic distances.

Im a Dixie Diva's half-brother, Mor Spirit, is a multiple Grade 1 winner, including the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Their dam Im a Dixie Girl won the Colleen Stakes at 2.

Global Legend won against a decent field of maidens. Granted, it was filled with Florida-breds in the summer, but one was a next-out stakes winner. He also held his own with the older stakes horse Strong Quality. I'm not a fan of Mark Casse's record with 2-year-olds making their second start in a stakes, and young Dylan Davis wins with 14 percent dirt sprinters, but overall, Global Legend has the class and has shown the ability to be a long-shot contender.

4. First Resort, 7-2, Uncle Mo - Fair Maiden, by Street Boss

First Resort graduated at first asking in his debut over the Ellis Park mud. He dueled through a 22.86-second first quarter, put away his rival by the one-eighth pole and opened up in the stretch by 3 1/2 lengths. Four of 10 rivals returned to the track and two placed, so the class is questionable. First Resort earned an 80 Brisnet rating with a decent 89 late pace figure, second-best in the Saratoga Special field.

The Eoin Harty trainee's post-race, four-furlong move was faster than his pre-race move, a positive sign. He also has a trio of five-furlong moves at Turfway in the 1:01 to 1:02 range.

In the last five years, Eoin Harty's last out 2-year-old maiden winners are 0-for-6, with two hitting the board.

Pedigree: A Godolphin homebred, First Resort should handle a mile and might go farther. He has a classy, precocious pedigree.

First Resort is the first foal out of Grade 1 winning sprinter Fair Maiden, who captured the Catch a Glimpse Stakes on turf as a 2-year-old. His fourth dam is Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Secret Status.

Eoin Harty trainees tend to regress in their second start. Flavien Prat hits the board 50 percent with dirt sprinters, but I will pass.

5. Touchy, 5-2, Nyquist - Touch the Moon, by Malibu Moon

Touchy bypassed the usual maiden races and jumped into the Tremont Stakes in his first start. He won the scramble for the lead and sped his first quarter in 22.11 seconds. The momentum carried him about four wide around the corner. Joel Rosario pulled him across lanes to engage with and pass Three Echoes but was surprised by Studlydoright's late surge. Touchy settled for second 1 3/4 lengths behind but bested Three Echoes by a half-length. It was 5 3/4 lengths back to the fourth-place finisher.

Studlydoright and Three Echoes hit the board in the Sanford Stakes in their next start. Touchy earned a decent 86 Brisnet rating but a low 78 late-pace figure.

Touchy didn't return to training until a month later at Keeneland, where he blitzed a trio of five-furlong moves in 59 and change. In his July 21 breeze, Touchy settled behind maiden winner Bostontonian before catching his rival.

Wesley Ward is a master at conditioning 2-year-olds. Over the last five years, his charges who hit the board in their debut returned to win 28 percent and place 56 percent.

Pedigree: By Uncle Mo's son, Kentucky Derby hero Nyquist, Touchy is bred to relish two turns.

Touchy's half-sister Royal Approval won the Matron Stakes (G3) at 2. Class skips to the third generation of his distaff line and includes Kentucky Oaks heroine Summerly.

Touchy takes the blinkers off for the Saratoga Special. He showed he could ship and run his race in the Tremont, and Ward's juvenile charges hit the board 67 percent with this angle. The drawback is that Joel Rosario is ice cold with 5 percent wins with dirt sprints this meet but hits the board 53 percent. Win contender.

6. Ace It, 30-1, Connect - Clever Beauty, by Indian Charlie

Ace It is the most experienced in the field with four starts, two over sloppy tracks. His Brisnet rating improved to 74 when he dropped to the $30,000 maiden claiming level at Laurel Park, where he fought to beat four other rivals by a half-length, and he earned a 64 late-pace figure, the lowest in the Saratoga Special field.

James Chapman removes Ace It's blinkers, but the trainer has one winner from 22 starters with last-out 2-year-old maiden winners.

Pedigree: Ace It might handle middle distances.

By the same sire as Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner and millionaire Rattle N Roll, Ace It is the fourth winner out of Clever Beauty, a stakes-winning 2-year-old. Class skips to the third generation of his distaff line and includes Grade 1-winning millionaire Rutherienne.

With his low speed ratings and struggles against claiming types, Ace It is up against it. Pass.

7. Noble Force, 15-1, Cairo Prince - Guess What, by Proud Citizen

Noble Force destroyed a field of five other maidens at Monmouth Park. He dueled through a first quarter in 22.77 seconds and a half in 46.90, then put away his rival and galloped to a 9 1/2-length victory in 59.54 under a hand ride. His rival's class is questionable as only one of four returning rivals hit the board in their next start.

The Jorge Delgado trainee earned an 80 Brisnet rating and an 80 late-pace figure.

Noble Force recorded a series of four-furlong works at Monmouth in the 48 to 50 range. His first post-race work was slower than pre-race, gradually quickening to a final work in 48.4.

Delgado used the win-and-ship angle in 2022 with Super Chow, who was third in the Saratoga Special after winning his debut at Gulfstream. But Aguas de Cristal recently finished a well-beaten fifth in the Adirondack (G3) after a winning debut at Monmouth, so flip a coin.

Pedigree: Noble Force sold for $110,000 at the OBS 2-year-olds in training spring sale after breezing a furlong in 10.1. He has a classy, precocious pedigree and might handle multiple surfaces, and his conformation indicates that middle distances could be within his scope.

Noble Force is bred on the same Cairo Prince-Proud Citizen bloodline cross as Noted, a multiple-stakes winner at 2. Race Lens shows Cairo Prince is an average sire of juveniles, with 15 percent off-track winners.

Noble Force is the second winner in his immediate family. His second dam is multiple Grade 1-placed Biofuel, Canada's 2010 Horse of the Year. Biofuel's half-sister Tu Endie Wei was 2011 Canadian champion 2-year-old filly.

Noble Force takes the blinkers off for the Saratoga Special. Although he won his debut in a sub 1:00 at Monmouth, Delgado is hit or miss at Saratoga with juveniles. Ricardo Santana Jr. is winning dirt sprints this meet at 17 percent, with 48 percent in the money. Noble Force is worth a long-shot look if you're playing multiple exotic tickets.

8. Good Directions, 15-1, Liam's Map - Miss Sammy, by Tale of Ekati

After graduating at first asking at Presque Isle Downs, Good Directions got the dreaded maiden bounce out of the way in an allowance contest at Ellis Park. The Kevin Rice trainee was off slowly but circled four wide and made a sustained drive down the stretch, closing with every stride. Good Directions missed the victory by 1 1/2 lengths. None of his rivals have competed since.

Good Directions saw his Brisnet rating gain a point to 73, with a 78 late-pace figure. Overall, Rice has a 12 percent win rate with 2-year-olds.

Pedigree: Good Directions has a miler's pedigree with back class.

Liam's Map is an above-average off-track sire with 21 percent winners.

Good Directions is the fourth winner in his immediate family. There are several black-type earners in his second generation, including multiple Grade 2-winning turf miler Strike Charmer. But the class is concentrated in Good Directions' third generation, anchored by the reine-de-course Stick to Beauty, whose descendants include champions Gold Beauty, Sky Beauty, sires Dayjur and Tale of Ekati, Point of Entry and many Grade 1 winners.

Good Directions ships and jumps in class. His speed ratings are some of the lowest in the field, and despite the presence of Manny Franco with his 22 percent dirt-sprint win rate, Good Directions needs considerable improvement to be competitive here. I'll have to pass.

9. Keep It Easy, 4-1, Hard Spun - Boxwood, by English Channel

Keep It Easy did just that in his second start, beating maidens at Churchill by four lengths. He was pressed through a 21.84-second first quarter, but his ears were up and flickering, meaning he was doing it easy, and his rivals didn't pose a serious threat. The Dale Romans trainee athletically cut the corner while posting a 45.41 half-mile. Keep It Easy was professional through the lane while under a hand ride, getting five furlongs in 57.43 seconds and stopping the clock in 1:09.97 for six furlongs. He got his final furlong in 12.54 seconds.

Keep It Easy improved his Brisnet rating to 87 with a competitive 89 late-pace figure. The race yielded a next-out winner.

Over the last five years, Dale Romans has a 22 percent win and 61 percent in-the-money rate with the last-out 2-year-old winner-to-stakes angle.

Pedigree: A $435,000 Keeneland September yearling, Keep It Easy should handle middle to classic distances over multiple surfaces.

Hard Spun's son Green Light Go captured the 2019 edition of the Saratoga Special.

Keep It Easy is the first foal out of a stakes-winning turf miler. Boxwood also won over a sloppy track. There's minor class in the third generation, a restricted winning turf miler.

Keep It Easy was visually impressive and won his last start in racehorse time. Dale Romans doesn't usually ship to Saratoga, and he's really high on this colt, so take notice. Junior Alvarado is winning 18 percent and hitting the board 50 percent in dirt sprints. Contender.

Analysis

Favorites are hit or miss in the Saratoga Special. Six favorites won in the last 15 years, and four others placed.

Two Saratoga Special heroes won or placed in the Bashford Manor Stakes, and 12 improved from a maiden victory to gain their first stakes win. Only three winners lost ground in their previous start.

Speed rules the Saratoga Special, with only two closers prevailing in 15 years. Post doesn't matter, although three each won from the rail, posts 3 and 9.

Keep It Easy won at six furlongs for fun and wasn't asked for his best.

Touchy showed speed-fade in the Tremont and was flattered by his two rivals hitting the board in the Sanford (G3).

Showcase has a classy pedigree and hails from a high-percentage-winning barn.

Global Legend is well-bred and moves beautifully over a sloppy track.

Smoken Wicked overcame trouble to close in the Bashford Manor and has won over a sloppy track. This Louisiana-bred is outrunning his pedigree. I like him, and it's a toss-up between him and Global Legend. But I'm going with Global Legend to shore up the exotics.

Selections

9. Keep It Easy (4-1)

2. Showcase (6-1)

5. Touchy (5-2)

1. Global Legend (12-1)