Pedigree Handicapping 101

The process of handicapping can be compared to an art form. No two handicappers look at the past performances in the same way, although they may come to the same conclusion as to the correct outcome of a race. Horseplayers may even use the same tools, yet place varied importance on each resource. Speed figures, pace variances, track bias, pedigree, complex performance ratings, horse colors, post positions and even hunches, you name it, and someone out there uses it. Not every aid is useful for each race.  Pedigree is essential for maiden races or for races where horses are trying a new surface or distance for the first – or even second time. 

Race fans have stated to me that they find the use of pedigree for handicapping intimidating and confusing. They become overwhelmed and bogged down in the minutiae of reading charts. This doesn’t have to be the case. Just a basic knowledge of sires and how to read a pedigree chart can increase a bettor’s bankroll by opening up a whole new segment of racing.  

Pedigree can be read in two ways, for breeding or handicapping. One takes a closer look at pedigrees for inbreeding, line breeding and outcrosses in order to find not only the optimal bloodlines for the type of foal one wishes to achieve, but also conformation and temperament qualities that could result in the foal. Some handicappers swear by Dr. Roman’s Dosage figures even though these figures only show the quality of the pedigree by calculating the number of chef-de-race.  Reading a pedigree for breeding and then trying to use that info for pedigree handicapping can be a bewildering exercise in futility for the bettor.

Noting that there's a strain of "X" sire or dam 4 or 5 generations back doesn't do anything for the handicapper, since the closer generations are the most influential. The easiest and quickest way to determine a horse’s chances over a specific surface or over a general distance is to analyze the sire, damsire, and the female family back to two generations. I often look at the second damsire to make a stronger opinion of the overall pedigree. The majority of the time, anything that is a great-great ancestor won't matter too much because their genes are included in the future generations.

Pedigree handicapping is a whole 'nother animal. It isn't rocket science or even as complex as reading a pedigree for breeding. Pedigree handicapping IS a formidable tool for determining precocity, surface and distance preferences.

To create a pedigree profile, one should research the sire, dam, siblings, damsire, second dam and dam's siblings. 

Creating a Pedigree Profile:

SIRE - Examine the achievements, and if possible, the conformation of the sire's offspring.  Do the majority of the runners excel over one surface and don't lift a hoof on another? What about distance? Does the sire stamp his babies (meaning they look like him) or are the offspring all shapes and sizes, giving indication that they may favor their dams? 

SECOND SIRE - looking at the second sire (sire of the sire, or in pedigree terms, the tail sire) can help in certain instances. For example Lemon Drop Kid raced on dirt. His babies love turf. Why? His sire is Kingmambo, one of the all-time great turf sires. Pioneerof the Nile’s offspring also excel over the turf.  His damsire Lord At War was a Champion Miler in Argentina. My friend and mentor Lauren Stitch coined the phrase "HT” (Hidden Turf). This analysis also works well for mud and we're beginning to see second generation Polysires too.

DAM - look at the dam's race-record for class, precocity, distance and surface. Does she own blacktype? Do any of her siblings? What about the second dam? What types of surfaces/distances did she prefer? Are they most win-early types or were they career maidens until they hit the $3K level at Delta Downs? If the dam didn't race, take a closer look at her siblings and dam to answer the questions.

SIBLINGS - a horse's siblings (half, 3/4 or whole) can also give an indication of class, precocity, distance and surface. One must take into account the siblings’ sire in terms of these achievements. For instance, a half sibling by AP Indy won't be as precocious as the one by Tapit or Songandaprayer. The English Channel half-brother will prefer going long on turf.

DAMSIRE - similar to the research on the sire, one should examine the damsire's achievements, preferred distances and surfaces.  It can be harder for the novice pedigree handicapper to determine the class, surface, distance capabilities of the progeny of the damsire's daughters. The records of his progeny can sometimes help in this regard, although many times, the damsire has stopped producing offspring or is deceased.

SECOND DAMSIRE - I will often look at the second damsire's influence if a horse is borderline for distance or in determining a proclivity for a surface. If the sire or second sire has strong mud/turf attributes and the damsire doesn't, I look at the second damsire to see if they could impart these qualities. The same goes for distance.  If you have a sire who offers classic attributes bred to a mare whose sire and damsire are sprinters, it's doubtful the foal will want any part of 1 ¼ miles.  1 1/6 miles, sure. Maybe even 1 1/8 miles if the conditions and class level are right.

Physical Handicapping:

Another important factor in handicapping maiden and two year old races is the physical aspect, a/k/a physical handicapping. Many handicappers and pedigree analysts tend to ignore the conformation and temperament of the horses. Physical handicapping goes hand in hand with pedigree handicapping, especially when determining distance capabilities. If a horse is built like a sprinter/miler and the pedigree is borderline for 10F, chances are, that horse will run out of gas right around 1 1/8 miles. There are some horses that are formidable at 1 1/8 furlongs, but just can’t handle that extra distance. Lawyer Ron is a prime example. He set track records at 1 1/8 miles, but was 0-4 at 1 1/4 miles. Races aren’t won on paper, so lift your eyes and look at the athletes in the walking ring or post parade. It can be difficult to physically handicap while watching a racing channel on TV, so get to your local track as much as possible. 

Examine the horses in the walking ring. Learn the language of the horse and how to use physical handicapping to your advantage.  When one bets a maiden race, or really any race, it is crucial to see how the horses are behaving. Or not. A little sweat never hurt anyone, especially on a hot, humid day. A first time runner looking like a shampoo commercial can be tossed.

Look for a horse that has a bounce in his step, he’s eager, but not kicking, rearing or causing general havoc. There’s a shine to his coat and you can tell he’s having a good day.  Maybe he’s dragging his handlers to the track.  Some horses are calm and quiet in the walking ring, but are alert, carefully studying everything around them. American Pharoah is a good example.  The look in a horse’s eye can tell you plenty. Some horses in the walking ring look like they’re ready to go back home and take a nap – until they step foot onto the track.  They come alive in the post parade and are ready for action.

If possible, take notes on how the horses look and behave and compare notes for future races.  A previously dull horse could show signs of rounding into form. Often, these horses go off at long odds and are surprise winners.  The astute handicapper will note the physical changes and bet accordingly. 

Finding Information:

So where does our budding pedigree geek get their information?  I’m not advertising for any particular companies. I’ve found that Pedigree Query is a good basic tool.  For $10/month or $100/year, it’s well worth a subscription to view the extras.  Word of caution – Pedigree Query can be notoriously unreliable due to the fact that anyone can add a pedigree and mistakes, such as the wrong sire or dam, messes up the system.  

Use Equibase to view race records and charts. Equibase is very handy for determining precocity and racing class. Websites selling past performances offer some type of pedigree stats.Learn where they are located and incorporate them into your handicapping. American Produce Records, offered by both Equineline and Brisnet are very useful.  The subscriptions run about $250/year.

It takes time to learn pedigree and physical handicapping. However, a well-rounded horse player can use these tools to their advantage and the rewards can be well worth it.