Kentucky Derby pedigrees: How far can Newgrange go?

Newgrange kept his perfect record intact in Oaklawn Park's Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Saturday.

Newgrange sat farther back than his usual pacesetting/pressing style in the Southwest and was kept in four wide in the clear by jockey John Velazquez. The dark bay colt appeared to struggle with the track and was 4 1/2 lengths behind in mid-stretch, but he suddenly found a new gear and passed them all to win by 1 1/2 lengths.

The Bob Baffert trainee traveled 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.83. He previously won the Sham Stakes (G3) on New Year's Day and his debut last November, and he has earned $552,000.

Newgrange didn't receive qualifying points in the Southwest because of Baffert's suspension from Churchill Downs and the 2022 Kentucky Derby. However, the Derby futures have Newgrange listed as the co-second choice at Circa and 25-1 at Caesars at William Hill.

Newgrange (Violence - Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) was bred by Jack Mandato and Black Rock Thoroughbreds. He was a $125,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase and races for the partnership of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, Golconda Stable and Siena Farm.

Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) was a dazzling but fragile competitor who won his first three starts, including the Nashua Stakes (G2) and CashCall Futurity (G1). One of the early 2013 Kentucky Derby favorites, Violence had his Kentucky Derby hopes derailed after injuring his right front medial sesamoid while finishing second in the Fountain of Youth (G2).

Violence set about producing precocious offspring and led both the first and second crop sire lists by the number of winners and earnings. Not surprising since he hails from the brilliant distaff line that includes 1993 filly triple crown and champion older mare Sky Beauty and the Grade 1 winner and producer Maplejinsky.

So far, Violence's stakes-winning offspring have a distance range from sprints to 1 1/8 miles. His most accomplished runners include the swift Grade 1 winners Dr. Schivel, Volatile and No Parole, all sprinters.

Newgrange is the fifth foal out of the unraced mare Bella Chianti (Empire Maker - Bella Chiarra, by Phone Trick), and although all have won, he is the only black-type earner. Newgrange's half-siblings have been successful from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. One was unsuccessful at 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/16 miles.

Bella Chianti's full brother Zimmer is a stakes-placed sprinter. Her full sister Soot Z bore Sorrento Stakes (G2) heroine Amalfi Sunrise (Constitution) and Gotti (More Than Ready), who placed in the one-mile UAE 2000 Guineas (UAE-G3).

Bella Chianti's half-sister Ididntmeantoo is a multiple-stakes-placed sprinter/miler on dirt and turf. Another half-sister is the second dam of a stakes-placed sprinter, so this young producing family shows promise of future stakes winners.

Newgrange second dam Bella Chiarra (Phone Trick - Bannockburn, by Count Brook), is the most accomplished runner in four generations. The mare was in the money in 20 of 29 starts and earned $636,088, mainly in stakes. Her most significant victory was in the 1 1/6 mile Rampart (G2), and she finished third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths in the Louisville Breeders' Cup Handicap (G2) behind Grade 1 winner Heritage of Gold, and was third in the 1 1/8 mile Vanity Handicap (G1).

As a broodmare sire, Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker (Unbridled - Toussaud, by El Gran Senor) is represented by 689 winners, 66 of them stakes winners. He was represented on the 2020 Triple Crown trail by Silver State and last year by Mandaloun and Rock Your World.

Newgrange is bred on the same Violence/Empire cross as the black-type earning sprinters Violent Times and Coexistence.

Kentucky Derby Contender or Pretender?

Newgrange's pedigree contains miler speed (Violence), stamina (Empire Maker) and brilliant speed (Phone Trick). This, along with his conformation, suggest that 1 1/8 miles is at the top of his distance range.

Newgrange has tactical speed and showed the ability to quicken in the stretch and pass horses even after a wide trip. He runs straight without paddling and switches leads properly, although he has slightly high knee action.

Of course, the elephant in the room is the lack of Derby qualifying points. Hopefully, we'll learn more after a Feb. 7 hearing regarding Baffert's suspension. Baffert said after the race that Newgrange's next start is undecided. He could ship back to Arkansas for the Rebel (G2) on Feb. 26, stay in California and point for the San Felipe on March 5, or wait for the 100-point California or Arkansas Derby.