Derby pedigrees: Can Forbidden Kingdom go the distance?

Forbidden Kingdom gave another stunning speed display in the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday.

Juan Hernandez was just a passenger as Forbidden Kingdom was never challenged at any point in the race. Instead, the pair opened up to beat six rivals by 5 3/4 lengths, completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.98. The chestnut colt earned 50 qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

Springhouse Farm bred Forbidden Kingdom. MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm picked him out of the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Showcase for $300,000 and sent him to Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella.

Forbidden Kingdom previously beat Pinehurst in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) by 2 1/4-lengths. That rival returned to capture the Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Derby (G3). Forbidden Kingdom has earned $434,000 in five starts, with three wins, one second and a third.

Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah - Just Louise, by Five Star Day) is his sire's first serious Kentucky Derby contender. Our Triple Crown hero has 24 graded/listed winners from three racing crops, and he is fourth on the general sire list by earnings. American Pharoah's offspring are generally later maturing types. Although he gets the occasional sprinter, the bulk are best at a mile to 10 furlongs. Not surprisingly, given his pedigree, American Pharoah's progeny are stronger on turf than dirt, as 16 of his 24 stakes winners prefer the lawn.

The first two generations of Forbidden Kingdom's distaff line is filled with miler speed.

His dam Just Louise (Five Star Day - Kings Lynn, by Mt. Livermore) is a precocious sprinter and won the Churchill Debutante Stakes (G3) in her second start. However, she finished off the board in a trio of starts as a 3-year-old. She retired with a 5: 2-0-0 ($98,104) record.

On a side note as a matter of interest, Just Louise has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding (siblings descended from the same reine-de-course (superior mare) through within five generations) to the reine Sister Shannon through daughter Populi, the dam of Vanlandingham, Five Star Day's damsire, and Populi's half-brother, Belmont Stakes hero Temperence Hill, who is Forbidden Kingdom's third damsire.

Forbidden Kingdom is Just Louise's fifth foal and first black-type earner. Forbidden Kingdom's half-siblings have won from five to seven furlongs over dirt and turf, and this colt is the first to win at two turns. In addition, Just Louise has am unnamed 2-year-old Bolt d'Oro colt.

Just Louise's half-sister Sara Louise (Malibu Moon) was also a precocious juvenile, winning the Pocahontas (G3) over Rachel Alexandra but finishing second to that rival in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2). She returned to win her 3-year-old debut, the Victory Ride (G2), she continued her career with a victory in the Top Flight Handicap (G2) and back-to-back runner-up placings in the Gallant Bloom (G2).

Sara Louise also was a troubled fourth in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She retired with $400,435 after 11 starts. Sara Louise bore two black-type earners, stakes-winning miler Spa City (Street Sense) and his full sister, Sara Street, twice multiple graded-placed at nine furlongs.

Forbidden Kingdom's second dam Kings Lynn (Mt. Livermore), a Grade 3-placed sprinter, is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Scoop (Gone West). That mare's descendants include Florida Derby (G1) runner-up Soup and Sandwich and Iowa Derby (G3) winner Looking Cool (Candy Ride).

Forbidden Kingdom's first two damsires, Five Star Day (Carson City) and Mt. Livermore (Blushing Groom), are sprint influences.

Five Star Day's daughters have produced 20 stakes winners, 14 graded/listed. The majority win up to 1 1/16-miles; however, Forewarned (Flat Out) won at nine furlongs and the 10-furlong Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes, setting a track record of 2:04.41 in 2019.

Mt. Livermore gave us Sprint Champs, Housebuster and Orientate, Champion 2-year-old filly Eliza, And two Canadian Horse of the Year recipients, Mt Sassafras and Peaks and Valleys. Mt. Livermore's son Procreate set a world record of 53.79 seconds for five furlongs over Gulfstream's turf course in 2005.

Kentucky Derby Contender or Pretender?

Colts exiting the San Felipe have done well in the Santa Anita Derby and the Triple Crown events.

Since 2008, eight San Felipe winners stepped up in the Santa Anita Derby. Four won and three placed. Those same eight entered the Kentucky Derby starting gate and produced two winners, California Chrome (2014) and Authentic (2020), while Pioneerof the Nile (2009) and Dortmund (2015) finished second and third, respectively.

Authentic finished second in the Preakness. California Chrome won the Preakness but finished a tiring fourth in the Belmont. Creative Cause (2014) sixth in the Derby, finished third in the Preakness.

Forbidden Kingdom has a smooth gait without wasted motion. He switches leads properly and holds a straight course down the lane. The chestnut colt has miler conformation, with a deep slanted shoulder and short back but massive hindquarters and a short stifle. Physically, Forbidden Kingdom resembles his dam and first two damsires.

His two losses resulted from incidents. In his second start, the Speakeasy Stakes, a five-furlong turf sprint, Forbidden Kingdom was off a tick slow, then he was ping-ponged and had to steady between rivals. Despite this, he hustled through a 21-second first quarter. Unfortunately, he was green in the stretch and faded to third.

In last year's Bob Hope Stakes(G3), Forbidden Kingdom stumbled slightly at the start but quickly gained the lead. He was rank through his first quarter of :21.40 and tired to finish 3 1/2 lengths behind Messier. That one dominated last month's Robert B. Lewis (G3) by 15 lengths.

So far, Forbidden Kingdom is a one-dimensional speed freak, although Hernandez was able to slow him down a little in the early stages of the San Felipe. There hasn't been much quality in the stakes other than Messier and Pinehurst, whom Forbidden Kingdom defeated.

His pedigree, conformation and pacesetting style indicate that 10 furlongs is at the top of Forbidden Kingdom distance range. But if he's allowed to settle and ration his early speed, Forbidden Kingdom could handle nine furlongs against the current California crop.

Yet questions remain. Can Forbidden Kingdom rate behind horses if he doesn't get his preferred pacesetter trip? Will he settle when pressed relentlessly on the pace? Perhaps we'll find out on April 9 in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).