Breeders' Cup 2022: Keys to the Juvenile Fillies Turf
History repeats itself. Often, this is true of the Breeders' Cup events.
This month, we'll closely examine the winners of the last 10 Breeders' Cup juvenile races: the respective winners' final preps, how the Euros stacked up, race running styles, favorites and more.
The $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is easier to handicap than the colts' counterpart. Betting the top three favorites generally results in on-the-board placings. In 2014, they completed the trifecta.
Since the Juvenile Fillies Turf inception in 2008, 10 of 14 winners captured their final prep race.
Worth noting: 12 of the 14 Juvenile Fillies Turf winners were American-based.
Notes about Keeneland
Keeneland's turf course is 7 1/2 furlongs, with an auxiliary finish line at the sixteenth pole. The stretch is a quarter-mile (1,320 feet).
How Keeneland's surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. The previous two Juvenile Filly Turf winners at Keeneland either set or pressed the pace, but closers filled out the trifecta.
Keeneland 2020 recap
Breeders' Cup 2020 was held at Keeneland over a good course. 14 contenders went to the post, with Aunt Pearl as the 2-1 betting favorite.
Aunt Pearl stayed a measured three-length in front for much of the race and won as she pleased, 2 1/2 lengths in front.
At 22-1 odds, Mother Earth had to steady early in traffic. She angled out and rallied in the stretch, edging out Miss Amulet by a neck. Miss Amulet (11-1) saved ground early in seventh place, switched outside around the 3 1/16 pole, and finished two lengths in front of the fourth-place filly.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at a glance – one mile
(All stats are for 2008-21)
Division debut: 2008
Breeders' Cup Challenge event previous results
10 winners won their final prep.
5 — Miss Grillo Stakes (G2)
2 — Jessamine Stakes (G2)
3 — Natalma Stakes (G1)
1 — Prix Marcel Boussac (G1)
1 — Alcibiades Stakes (G1)
1 — Fillies Mile (GB G1)
1 — Selima Stakes (Listed)
Keeneland 2020:
The top four finishers were bred in Ireland.
Winner Aunt Pearl won the Jessamine Stakes (G2).
Second-place finisher Mother Earth was second in the Fillies Mile (G1)
Third-place finisher Miss Amulet was second in the Cheveley Park Stakes (G1).
2022 Breeders' Cup Challenge winners
Miss Grillo (G2), Pleasant Passage
Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1), Tahiyra
Natalma Stakes (G1)m Last Call
Rockfel Stakes (G2), Commissioning
Prix Marcel Boussac (G1), Blue Rose Cen
Jessamine (G2), Delight
Payouts
Average win payout: $16.87
Lowest: $3.20 Newspaperofrecord, 2018
Highest: $29.60 Sharing, 2019
Favorite
Favorites hit the board 42 percent of the time.
21 percent win
21 percent in the money
Last to win: Newspaperofrecord (2018)
Keeneland 2020: Favorite Aunt Pearl won.
Second favorite:
7 percent win
21 percent ITM
Last to win: Aunt Pearl (2020)
Post position
Post 3 — three winners
Post 4 — two winners
Post 5 — two winners
Post 11 — three winners
Post 6, 8, and 10 — One each
Rail: The rail is the kiss of death. Since 2008, one filly won from the rail, and another placed second. The rest were sixth or worse.
Keeneland 2020, 9th; 2015, 11th
Winning style
Determined by position at the half-mile
2 pacesetters — wired the field
2 presser/setters — within a length of the pacesetter
6 mid-pack — two to four lengths behind the pacesetter
4 closers — five or more lengths behind the pacesetter
Previous starts
4 undefeated
8 had two previous starts
2 each had three and four previous starts
1 each had five and 6 previous starts
Since 2008, all but one filly won or placed in her final prep. From 2013 to 2020, the Fillies Juvenile Turf heroine won her prep. Last year, Pizza Bianca finished a troubled second in the Natalma Stakes.
Europeans
European races are timed differently from those in the US and Canada. They are timed from the gate in Europe, and track configurations vary widely.
Since 2008, European horses have a 57: 2-6-4 record in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Irish-trained horses have finished in the money seven of the last 10 years.
Trainers
This is Chad Brown's world, and we are just living in it. Since the inaugural running in 2002, Brown has compiled a 22: 5-2-1 record. He dominated the Juvenile Fillies Turf between 2014 and 2018, winning three straight. Half of his eight charges who finished in the top three were either the favorite or second-favorite.
Jockeys
Javier Castellano, Irad Ortiz Jr. and Florent Geroux have won the Juvenile Fillies Turf twice each.
Summary
• Pacesetters won both editions of the Juvenile Filly Turf at Keeneland.
• Irish-trained horses have finished in the money seven of the last 10 years.
• 36 percent of Chad Brown's entries have finished in the top three, and half were favored or second-favorite.
• 13 of the 14 Juvenile Filly Turf heroines won or placed in their final prep.
This year's contender profiles will be available after the advanced past performances are released.