Breeders' Cup 2022: Historic keys to Juvenile Turf

The $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf historically is an excellent betting race. The full fields offer value, because only two favorites have won since the race’s inception. However, they finish second or third 46 percent of the time.

Second favorites have won once and hit the board three times. The third choice is the way to go. They won three straight from 2014 to 2016 and again in 2019.

The Europeans dominate, specifically Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby. Together, they account for a dozen wins and runner-up finishes in the last decade.

Notes about Keeneland

Keeneland's turf course is 7 1/2 furlongs with an auxiliary finish line at the sixteenth pole. The stretch is a quarter-mile, or 1,320 feet.

How Keeneland’s surfaces have played in these weeks leading up to the Breeders’ Cup may indicate winning running styles. The 2020 turf was good, and the lawn was yielding in 2015. Both winners paid double digits, $62.40 and $16.40, respectively.

At a glance

All statistics are 2007-2021.

Division debut: 2007.

Breeders' Cup Challenge Event Previous Results

Prep races producing winners

Six winners won their final preps.*

3 Pilgrim (G2)

3 Dewhurst (G1)

2 Bourbon (G2)

1 Grand Criterium (G1), France

1 Prix Morny (G1), France

1 Royal Lodge (G2), Great Britain

1 Prix de Conde (G3), France

1 Star Appeal (Ireland)

1 Somerville (G3), Great Britain

1 Summer (G3), Canada

1 Weight for Age, Great Britain

* 2021 included the winner Modern Games, who was scratched but then allowed to run for purse money only, and runner-up Tiz the Bomb, who paid as the winner in pari-mutuels.

2022 Breeders’ Cup Challenge winners

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1), Belbek.

Summer (G1), Mysterious Night.

Champions Juvenile (G2), Auguste Rodin.

Royal Lodge (G2), The Foxes.

Bourbon (G2), Andthewinneris.

Pilgrim (G2), Major Dude.

Payouts

Average win payout: $18.17.

Lowest: $9.00, Line of Duty (2018).

Highest: $62.40, Fire at Will (2020).            

Favorites

13 percent win, 46 percent in the money.

Last to win: Mendelssohn (2017).

Favorite finished second at Keeneland in 2020. 

Second choices

6 percent win, 33 percent in the money.

Last to win: Line of Duty (2018).

Third choices

26 percent win, 13 percent in the money.

Last to win: Structor (2019).

Winning post positions

Post 4 has produced four winners

Posts 1, 5 and 7 have had two each.

Posts 2, 3, 12, 13 and 14 have had one winner apiece.

Posts 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11 have yet to produce a winner.

Winning style

Determined by position at the half-mile:  

0 pacesetters who wired the field.

0 presser-setters who were within a half-length.

7 pressers who were 1-4 lengths behind.

8 closers who were at least five lengths behind.

Previous starts

2 were undefeated.

2 had two previous starts.

3 had three previous starts.

6 had four previous starts.

3 had five previous starts

1 had six previous starts.

Keeneland 2020

The winner Fire At Will also had won the Pilgrim Stakes (G2).

Second-place finisher Battleground won the Vintage Stakes.

Third-place finisher Outadore won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Pedigree note: War Front sired the runner-up, and his son Declaration of War sired the winner.

Europeans

Races over there are timed differently than those in the U.S. and Canada. In Europe they are clocked from the gate without a North American style run-up, and track configurations vary widely. Since 2007 European horses have a 61: 9-5-2 record in the Juvenile Turf.

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien totals 15 starters with a 4-5-0 record in the Juvenile Turf. In five of those years, he started two horses with excellent success. Four won or placed, and the other finished off the board. O’Brien was blanked only once when he entered two starters.

Pay attention when Charlie Appleby enters a runner. Three of four starters have won. 

Jockeys

Ryan Moore has won the Juvenile Turf four times, all on O’Brien trained horses. Frankie Dettori has won three times. William Buck, Julien Leparoux, and Jose Ortiz have won twice.

Keeneland summary

The 2020 turf was good, and the lawn was yielding in 2015.

The winners paid double digits, $62.40 and $16.40 respectively. Both times the favorite finished second.

2020, Fire at Will was 2 1/2 lengths behind at the half-mile pole.

2015, Hit it a Bomb was 8 1/2 lengths behind at the half-mile pole.

In each year, the horse in post 1 finished fifth.