Keys to handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf is an excellent betting race. Full fields dominate, and while favorites hit the board fifty percent of the time, only one has won in the last decade. Second favorites have won once and hit the board once. The third choice is the way to go. They won three straight from 2014 to 2016 and again in 2019.
The Europeans have dominated, specifically Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby. They have accounted for nine wins or second-place finishes in the last decade.
At only 919 feet, the Del Mar stretch is the shortest of all the current Breeders' Cup host tracks. For comparison, Santa Anita is 990 feet, and Lone Star is 950 feet. The shorter stretch gives horses that are closer to the lead the advantage.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at a glance
All stats are for
the last decade (2011 – 2020)
Division Debut: 2007
Key race prep winners
Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1) — Angel Bleu (FR)
Summer Stakes (G1) — Albahr (GB)
KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes (G2) — Atomic Jones (FR)
Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) — Royal Patronage (FR)
Bourbon Stakes (G2) — Tiz the Bomb
Pilgrim Stakes (G2) — Annapolis
Payouts
Average win payout: $20.10
Lowest: $9.00 Line of Duty (IRE) (2018)
Highest: $62.40 Fire at Will (2020)
Favorite
10 percent win
50 percent in the money
Last to win: Mendelssohn (2017)
Del Mar in 2017: Favorite won.
Second Favorite
10 percent win
10 percent in the money
Last to win: Line of Duty (IRE) (2018)
Post position
Post 4 — Two winners
Post 5 — Two winners
Post 1, 2, 3, 7, 13, 14 — One each
Winning style – determined by position at the half-mile
0 Pacesetters — wired the field.
0 Presser/setters — within a half-length of the pacesetter.
5 Pressers — one to four lengths behind the pacesetter.
5 Closers — five or more lengths behind the pacesetter.
Del Mar in 2017
Mendelssohn stalked the pace from the inside, 1 1/2 lengths behind the pacesetter at the half-mile pole. Moved outside in midstretch and inched clear.
Previous starts
2 winners were undefeated.
2 winners had two previous starts.
2 winners had three previous starts.
5 winners had four previous starts.
1 winner had six previous starts.
Prep races
5 winners won their final prep.
3 winners prepped in the Pilgrim Stakes (G2)
3 winners prepped in the Dewhurst Stakes (Gr.1)
1 winner prepped in the Prix Morny (G1)
1 winner prepped in the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2)
1 winner prepped in the Prix de Conde (G3)
1 winner prepped in the Star Appeal Stakes (IRE)
Winner Mendelssohn finished second in the Dewhurst Stakes (G1).
Second-place finisher Untamed
Domain won the Summer Stakes (G2)
Third-place finisher Voting
Control finished second in the Pilgrim Stakes (G2)
In the last ten years, European horses have a 43-6-2-3 record in the Juvenile Turf.
Irish-trained horses have won six of the last ten Juvenile Turf, with two seconds and two thirds (10-6-2-2).
Aidan O'Brien has had 15 starters
in the last ten Juvenile Turf events. He won four and placed second in
three. In five of those years, he
started two horses, with excellent success, four won or placed while the other
finished off the board. O’Brien was blanked only once.
Charlie Appleby has had three starters between 2013 and 2018. Two won, and the third finished sixth.
Jockeys
Ryan Moore has won the Juvenile Turf four times, all on O'Brian trained horses.
Jose Ortiz has won twice.