Keys to handicapping the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf has historically been an easier race to handicap than its male counterpart. Betting the top-three favorites has generally resulted in on-the-board placings. In 2014, the top-betting choices completed the trifecta.
Notes about Del Mar
At only 919 feet, the Del Mar stretch is the shortest of all the current Breeders' Cup host tracks. For comparison, Santa Anita is 990 feet, and Lone Star is 950 feet. The shorter stretch gives horses that are closer to the lead the advantage.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at a glance
All stats are for
the last decade (2011 – 2020)
Division Debut: 2008
Key Race Prep Winners
Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1) — Discoveries (IRE)
Natalma Stakes (G1) — Wild Beauty (GB)
Rockfel Stakes (G2) — Hello You (IRE)
Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) — Zellie (FR)
Jessamine (G2) — California Angel
Miss Grillo (G2) — Consumer Spending
Payouts
Average win payout: $13.94
Lowest: $3.20 Newspaperofrecord (IRE) (2018)
Highest: $29.60 Sharing (2019)
Favorite
30 percent win
20 percent in the money
Last to win: Newspaperofrecord (IRE) (2018)
Del Mar in 2017: Favorite Best Performance finished second.
Second Favorite
10 percent win
20 percent in the money
Last to win: Rushing Fall (2017)
Post position
Post 3 — two winners
Post 4 — two winners
Post 5 — two winners
Post 11 — two winners
Post 6, 8 — one each
Rail: The rail is the kiss of death. One finished second, the rest were sixth or worse.
Winning style – determined by position at the half-mile
2 Pacesetters — wired the field.
0 Presser/setter — within a half-length of the pacesetter.
5 Presser — one to four lengths behind the pacesetter.
3 Closer — five or more lengths behind the pacesetter.
Del Mar in 2017: Rushing Fall was wide the entire way, was in eight at the half-mile pole, four lengths off the pacesetter, and closed six wide through the stretch.
Previous Starts
4 winners were undefeated.
5 winners had two previous starts.
2 winners had three previous starts.
2 winners had four previous starts.
1 winner had five previous starts.
Prep Races
9 winners won their final prep.
3 winners prepped in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2)
2 winners prepped in the Jessamine Stakes (G2)
1 winner prepped in the Natalma Stakes (G1)
1 winner prepped in the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1)
1 winner prepped in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1)
1 winner prepped in the Fillies Mile (G1)
1 winner prepped in the Selima Stakes
Del Mar in 2017
Winner Rushing Fall prepped in the Jessamine Stakes (G2)
Second-place finisher Best Performance prepped in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2)
Third-place finisher September prepped in the Fillies Mile (G1)
Europeans
European races are timed differently than those in the US and Canada. In Europe, they are timed from the gate, and track configurations vary widely.
In the last ten years, European horses have a record of 44: 2-4-4 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Irish-trained horses have finished in the money six of the last ten years.
Trainers
This is Chad Brown's world, and we are just living in it. Brown dominated the Juvenile Fillies Turf between 2014-2018, winning four straight. He has six wins in total.
Aidan O'Brien has a 15-0-3-0 record in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Jockeys
Javier Castellano, Irad Ortiz Jr., and Florent Geroux have won the Juvenile Fillies Turf twice each.