What you need to know before betting the 2018 Belmont Stakes

Every year, race fans debate the running styles of the Belmont Stakes contenders. Which manner -- front runner, pace presser, mid-pack runner or closer -- is the most favorable for winning the grueling, 1 1/2-mile "Test of the Champion"? How do the favorites stack up? Is the third leg of the Triple Crown a decent betting race, or should you save your money?

To answer those questions and more, let’s see what the research of the last 18 editions of the Belmont Stakes reveals.

Running Style

44% of Belmont Stakes winners since 2000 raced mid-pack in the initial stages of the race, either between horses or in the clear on the outside. Only three took the rail trip. They started gearing up right around the 3/8 pole and were in full running mode by the time they hit 1 ¼ miles. 

27% were pace pressers, sitting second or third early. Most made their move a little later, right around the 1 1/4-mile pole. Four colts did their best running from the back of the pack, settling eighth or farther back.  They moved up gradually and had the lead after 1 1/4 miles.  Overall, 10 of 18 Belmont victors had the lead after 1 1/4 miles. 

Only two pace setters, Da’ Tara, and American Pharoah, have won the Belmont since 2000.

Favorites

The Belmont Stakes is a very lucrative betting opportunity, as only five winners paid single digits to win. The lowest win payout was $3.50 when American Pharoah became our first Triple Crown hero in 37 years.

Normally, favorites don’t fare well in the Belmont Stakes. Only three post time top choices in 18 years won and only six favorites hit the board. In 2002, Sarava paid a whopping $142.50 to his backers. Not counting that return, the average winning return over sixteen years was $27.10.  The lowest trifecta was $67.50 in a six-horse field in 2003. 

So, how hard is it to pick the winner? Ten of 18 Belmont heroes (and one heroine) were first or second in their previous start. The other eight Belmont winners finished off the board in their previous start, all in the Kentucky Derby. Six Belmont winners prepped in a race other than the Triple Crown and either won or placed. Only three Preakness winners also won the Belmont Stakes.

How do Kentucky Derby winners fare in the Belmont? Not that great. Seven Derby winners never made it to Belmont. Of the remaining 11, three stumbled coming out of the gate and it went downhill from there, and Big Brown was pulled up. 

The best finishes were by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, and Smarty Jones, who placed second in 2004. Four Derby heroes placed third, one completed the superfecta, and three finished fifth or farther back.     

Jockeys

In previous years, a big fuss was made about jockeys unfamiliar with the Belmont track, and rightfully so. “Big Sandy” is the only track in America with a 1 1/2-mile circumference, so it’s easy to get lost. Unlike the typical mile track, Belmont has a half mile pole at the top of the last turn. 

In the Belmont Stakes, a jockey not familiar with the huge track can move his or her horse prematurely, thinking the half mile pole is really the 3/8 pole.

A good example is the ride given in 2004 to Smarty Jones, whose jockey, Stewart Elliott, misjudged the poles and sent the colt to the front before the 3/8 pole, thus losing all chances of a successful Triple Crown bid. In 2009, Calvin Borel also made his move at the 3/8 pole with Mine That Bird.

Neither colt could sustain his bid. Neither jockey rode regularly at Belmont Park. However, the rider of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone, Edgar Prado, and Kent Desormeaux, pilot of 2009 Belmont Champ Summer Bird, were fixtures on the New York circuit.

Only four jockeys since 2000 who won the Belmont Stakes did so in their first attempt in the race. Jeremy Rose, Fernando Jara, Alan Garcia and Jose Valdivia, Jr. timed it perfectly to win the trophy. Of those, only Rose had not ridden at the Big Sandy before the Belmont Stakes, although he did have mounts earlier in the day to become familiar with the track layout. 

Three of this year’s jockeys normally don’t ride at Belmont Park:

Florent Geroux, Restoring Hope’s jock, calls Kentucky home. He’s had a mount in the last two editions of the Belmont Stakes, but placed 12th and 11th, respectively.

Ricardo Santana, Jr. is also based in the midwest. He’s ridden at Belmont Park a handful of times over the years, but Tenfold will be his first Belmont Stakes mount.

Kyle Frey hangs his helmet in the west. He’ll have his first trip around the Belmont oval, aside from the one-turn Peter Pan, and his first mount in a Grade 1 race with Blended Citizen.

Trainers

Will any trainer will ever match the record of the masterful Woody Stephens, who captured the Belmont Stakes five consecutive times? D. Wayne Lukas came closest with three consecutive victories in his heyday in the mid-1990s. He’s hoping to add to his Belmont Stakes trophy collection with Bravazo.

Todd Pletcher, owner of three Belmont Stakes trophies, including last year’s, is searching for his fourth victory with Vino Rosso and Noble Indy.

Bob Baffert has earned the Belmont trophy twice, once of course in tandem with the coveted Triple Crown trophy. He sends out Restoring Hope to keep Justify company. Steve Asmussen is represented by Tenfold and Bill Mott conditions Hofburg. Both trainers own one Belmont Stakes trophy.

Chad Brown is hoping the third time is the charm with Gronkowski. Brown’s charges placed fourth in 2012 and sixth last year. Doug O’Neill, also hoping for his first Belmont Stakes trophy with his first starter, will saddle Blended Citizen.

Track Surface

It rarely rains on Belmont Stakes day. Since 2000, the third Triple Crown jewel has just twice run over a wet track. Before that, we have to go back to 1986 to find another. 

Both times this century, speed held over a muddy surface. The winners, Empire Maker and Ruler On Ice, raced on the lead or pressed the early pace. That's good news for Justify, since he’ll be bringing his personal raincloud with him. There’s an increasing chance of rain this Saturday.

Pedigree

Does pedigree matter in the Belmont Stakes? Silly question. All except three of the last 18 Belmont Stakes winners were by stallions who had previously sired a stakes winner at 1 1/2 miles, or broodmare sires whose daughters bore stakes winners at 1 1/2 miles. 

Two of the three exceptions, Palace Malice and American Pharoah, were by first or second crop sires, and both of their sires won or placed in a Classic race.

The lone exception to the pedigree rule was  Ruler on Ice, who had the benefit of a sloppy track. He pressed a pedestrian pace, took over from Shackleford in the stretch, and held on to beat Stay Thirsty by a quarter length in 2:30.88. Kentucky Derby hero Animal Kingdom was the favorite, but he was bumped, stumbled and Johnny Velazquez lost an iron.

Preakness Stakes

Two top Preakness Stakes rivals are scheduled to take on Justify in the Belmont Stakes. So, the Preakness Stakes is a key prep, right?  For the winners of the Black-eyed Susans, yes. The rest? Not so much. 

Nine Preakness winners entered the Belmont Stakes. Two won, three finished second or third, and the remaining four were off the board, although War Emblem and Big Brown had excuses.

Out of the 45 other horses that hit the board in the Preakness since 2000, 21 didn’t bother showing up for the Belmont.

Twenty-three non-Preakness winners also raced in the Belmont. Three who finished second in the Preakness hit the board in the Belmont while none that placed third or farther back hit the board in the Belmont Stakes.

Final Takeaways

So, what can we learn from this decade’s Belmont Stakes? The winner generally hovers in fifth place early and moves up around the turn. He’s usually in front after 1 1/4 miles. His jockey is familiar with the track and the Belmont Stakes isn’t his first rodeo.

This century, the Belmont Stakes winner usually raced in the Kentucky Derby and had a rough trip, finishing off the board. Good news for Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Free Drop Billy.  

Belmont winners that didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby won or placed in their Belmont prep, which bodes well for Blended Citizen, the Peter Pan Stakes hero.

Winners of the Preakness generally hit the board in the Belmont Stakes.  Half of the Preakness runners-up also finished in the money in the Belmont. That’s good news for Bravazo. Toss the horses that finished third in the Preakness and contested the Belmont. None hit the board, although two of eight finished fourth. Keep that in mind for Tenfold.

The payout is often generous, and a win bet rarely pays less than $4, making the Belmont an excellent handicapping race, especially for the exotics.

Now that you know what to look for, finding the 2018 Belmont Stakes winner should be easy...right?