Keys and trends for the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

The $1 million Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf is an excellent betting race. The full fields offer value because only two  favorites have won since the race’s inception. However, they finish second or third 50 percent of the time.

Second favorites have won once and hit the board three times. The third choice is the way to go. They won three straight from 2014 to 2016 and again in 2019 and 2022.

The Europeans dominate, specifically Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby. Together, they account for 14 wins and runner-up finishes in the last decade.

Notes about Santa Anita

The Breeders’ Cup has been hosted by Santa Anita a total of 10 times since 1984, seven in the last 16 years.

Santa Anita’s turf course is nearly a mile (7 furlongs, 132 feet). It offers the famed 6 1//2-furlong downhill course, which features the only right-hand turn on an American track, a flat turf chute and the main oval.

The one-mile Juvenile Turf will be contested over the flat oval.

The turns for route races are sharper than the main course, offering a slight advantage to inside posts.

How Santa Anita’s surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. The turf has been firm all seven times that Santa Anita hosted.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at a glance

All stats are for 2007-2022

Division debut: 2007

Summer Stakes (G1) — Carson’s Run

Champions Juvenile Stakes (G2) — Diego Velazquez

Winner not entered in the Juvenile Turf.

Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) — Ghostwriter

Winner not entered in the Juvenile Turf.

Bourbon Stakes (G2) — Can Group

Pilgrim Stakes (G2) — Agate Road

Payouts:

Average win payout: $19.05

Lowest: $9.00 Line of Duty (2018)

Highest: $62.40 Fire at Will (2020)

How the favorites fared:

 Winning post positions*

* Including 2021 Tiz the Bomb and Modern Games (IRE).

Winning style, determined by position at the half-mile pole*

Presser, within two lengths of the pace.

Mid-pack, 2 1/2 to four lengths behind the pacesetter.

Closer, five or more lengths behind the pacesetter.

* Including 2021 Tiz the Bomb and Modern Games (IRE).

Previous starts

2 were undefeated.

2 had two previous starts.

3 had three previous starts.

6 had four previous starts.

3 had five previous starts.

1 had six previous starts.

1 had seven previous starts.

Santa Anita 2019

Winner: Structor won the Pilgrim Stakes (G2).

Second-place finisher: Billy Batts won the Zuma Beach Stakes.

Third-place finisher: Gear Jockey won the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes (G3).

Europeans

European races are timed differently from those in the U..S and Canada. In Europe, they are timed from the gate, and track configurations vary widely.

Since 2007, European horses have a 63: 10-6-2 record in the Juvenile Turf.

Trainers

Aidan O'Brien has a 21: 5-5-0 record in the Juvenile Turf. In five of those years, he started two horses. Four won or placed and the other finished off the board. O’Brien was blanked only once when he entered two starters. He won last year’s event with his only starter, Victoria Road.

Pay attention when Charlie Appleby enters a runner. He has a 5: 4-1-0 record. Last year, his entry, the favored Siver Knot finished second, beaten a nose.

Jockeys

Ryan Moore has won the Juvenile Turf five times, all on O'Brian-trained horses.

Frankie Dettori has won three times, and William Buck, Julien Leparoux, and Jose Ortiz have won twice.

This year’s contenders

Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast: At the top of my list is the undefeated Endlessly. Conditioned by Mike McCarthy, the son of Oscar Performance enters off a victory in the Zuma Beach (G3) over this track. The 90 Brisnet Speed Rating Endlessly received for that victory is the highest turf speed in the field and the highest last-race speed rating. Additionally, the colt’s speed ratings have improved with each start.

Another top choice for me is Islandsinthestream, who ran a couple of seconds to the well-regarded Henry Longfellow and enters off a confidence-building victory in allowance company.

Bourbon (G2) winner Can Group, who is undefeated in two starts on the turf, and Summer Stakes (G1) winner Carson’s Run also should be strongly considered, though Can Group’s speed ratings are subpar.

Unquestionable is worth a look, and I find My Boy Prince to be an intriguing prospect. He earned a field-best 98 Brisnet Speed Rating in his 14-length romp in the Simcoe Stakes on all-weather and was a good second in the Summer Stakes after a shoe repair. He enters off a victory in the restricted, black-type Cup and Saucer Stakes.

Laurie Ross: Unquestionable is the best of Aidan O’Brien’s charges. He was under a firm hold directly behind the leaders in the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in the early stages, grabbed the lead in the stretch, only to be denied late by Rosallion, a winner of three of four starts, and who set a new record of 1:18.23 for seven furlongs. Unquestionable’s only out-of-the-money finish was a fourth-place finish in the Phoenix (G1), when he bashed his head against the starting gate and lost his two front shoes.

Agate Road sailed down the middle of the lane to win the Pilgrim (G2) by 1 1/4 lengths under a hand ride by Jose Ortiz. Although his 85 late-pace number is average, the Todd Pletcher trainee performed effortlessly and outclassed his competition. Three colts have pulled off the Pilgrim-Juvenile Turf since 2016.

Endlessly is undefeated in a trio of California starts, including the Zuma Beach (G3). His speed ratings rose in each start, so we’ll see how the Mike McCarthy trainee stacks up against the international crowd and whether he can duplicate his sire Oscar Performance’s 2016 Breeders’ Cup Turf victory.

Can Group showed a brilliant turn of foot in the Bourbon when he swept past a full field to get his nose on the wire first. Although the Mark Casse trainee earned a low 79 Brisnet Speed Rating for his effort, he owns a 98 late-pace rating, the highest in the field.

After being denied by a half-length in the With Anticipation (G3), Carson’s Run circled the field to capture the Summer Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths. The Cristophe Clement trainee’s speed ratings have risen in each start, and his late pace ratings are all in the 90s.

Todd Pletcher’s Noted ran late with Can Group and received an identical speed rating. He previously captured the one-mile Sapling at Monmouth. Noted has tactical speed, a crucial trait for a large Breeders’ Cup field. Noted is cross-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Summary