Breeders’ Cup keys and trends: Juvenile Turf Sprint 2023
History repeats itself, a maxim that often holds true in Breeders' Cup races.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint received graded-stakes status in 2019 as a Grade 2 before being elevated to a Grade 1. It was previously a mainstay on the undercard since 2013, but was not held in 2015. We’ll review the trends since the race was granted graded status and see how this year’s contenders stack up against the historical trends.
First, some general guidance on handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint that will be run Friday, Nov. 3, at Santa Anita. Pick the pacesetter or a deep closer, toss in a couple long shots, and there's your trifecta.
Notes about Santa Anita
The Breeders’ Cup has been hosted by Santa Anita 10 times since 1984, including seven in the last 16 years. The Juvenile Turf Sprint was last held at the Great Race Place in 2019.
Santa Anita’s turf course is close to a mile at seven furlongs, 132 feet. It offers the famed 6 1/2-furlong, downhill course, which features the only right-hand turn on an American track, a flat turf chute and the main oval.
The five-furlong Juvenile Turf Sprint will be contested on the flat. Expect an unusually long run-up. The backstretch turn is also unusually sharp, which can cause crowding on the inside in five-furlong races and force many runners to go wide.
How Santa Anita’s surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. The turf has been firm all seven times that Santa Anita has hosted.
Santa Anita 2019 recap
The Breeders' Cup was last contested at Santa Anita in 2019. The then-Grade 2 Juvenile Turf Sprint went off at 4:14 p.m. EDT as the fifth race on the Friday card.
The favorite Four Wheel Drive broke sharply from post 9 and immediately established the lead with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons.
Jose Ortiz and Chimney Rock also had good early speed and chased Four Wheel Drive from about 1 1/2 lengths back. Chimney Rock finished well to capture second at odds of 13-1.
Third-place finisher Another Miracle raced in mid-pack early, about six lengths off Four Wheel Drive. With Manny Franco in the irons, Another Miracle raced on the inside, moved out in the stretch and split horses mid-stretch to gain third.
So the winner and runner-up were the pacesetter and an early type, and third place was nabbed by a runner coming from mid-pack, three or more lengths off the lead.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at a glance
Division debut: 2018, previously held as a listed race on the undercard.
2023 Breeders' Cup Challenge winners
Norfolk Stakes (G1), England: Valiant Force.
Prix Morny (G1), France: Vandeek
Futurity Stakes: Book’em Danno.
Because the Futurity came off the turf, Book’em Danno did not earn an automatic berth in the Juvenile Turf Sprint despite winning the challenge race.
Breeders' Cup Challenge previous results
Norfolk Stakes: Two Norfolk winners competed in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Neither hit the board.
Prix Morny: In 2020 the Wesley Ward-trained Campanelle competed in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and finished fourth. Last year Persian Force was runner-up in the Prix Morny and fourth in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Belmont Futurity Stakes: The Futurity is back as a challenge race as of 2023. In previous years Futurity winners had a mixed record in the Juvenile Turf with Uncle Benny running second in 2018,. Four Wheel Drive doubled down by winning both in 2019, Second of July finished 12th in 2020, Slipstream sixth in the Juvenile Turf in 2021 and Nagirroc third last year.
Prep races
Four of the five Juvenile Turf Sprint winners entered off a victory.
2022 Middle Park Stakes (G1), England: Mischief Magic finished fourth.
2021 Prix de la Vallee d'Auge, France: Twilight Gleaming won.
2020 Skidmore Stakes: Golden Pal won.
2019 Belmont Futurity Stakes (G3): Four Wheel Drive won.
2018 Hollywood Beach Stakes: Bulletin won.
Payouts
Average win payout: $9.49.
Lowest: $3.60, Golden Pal, 2020.
Highest: $15.84, Mischief Magic, 2022.
How the favorites fared
Last favorite to win: Golden Pal, 2020.
Last second choice to win: Twilight Gleaming, 2021.
The third betting choice never has won.
Winning post positions
Rail: One finished second and the others fifth, seventh, 10th and 11th.
Winning style determined by position at the half-mile pole
Presser, within two lengths of the pace.
Mid-pack, 2 1/2 to four lengths behind the pacesetter.
Closer, five or more lengths behind the pacesetter.
Previous starts
One was undefeated in one prior start.
One was undefeated in two prior starts.
One had three prior starts.
One had four prior starts.
One had five prior starts.
Santa Anita 2019
Winner: Four Wheel Drive won the Futurity Stakes (G3).
Second-place finisher: Chimney Rock was second in the Indian Summer Stakes.
Third-place finisher: Another Miracle was fifth in the Futurity (G3).
Europe
Europe races are timed differently from those in the U.S. and Canada. They are timed from the gate in Europe, and track configurations vary widely.
In the last four years, Europeans had a 20: 1-2-2 record in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Trainers
Wesley Ward is known for conditioning precocious sprinters, and he is in his element with the Juvenile Turf Sprint with an overall 12: 3-2-1 record.
Pay attention to any Charlie Appleby-conditioned entrant. With his only entry ever in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, he won last year’s edition with Mischief Magic.
Jockeys
Irad Ortiz Jr. has paired with Wesley Ward for three victories. Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano teamed to win the inaugural Juvenile Turf Sprint. Last year William Buick won one for the Europeans with the Charles Appleby-trained Mischief Magic.
This year’s top contenders
By Laurie Ross
Crimson Advocate’s Queen Mary (G2) victory caught my eye. John Velazquez put her into contention early, and George Weaver’s charge held off the second-place finisher Relief Rally by a nose. That was the only defeat for Relief Rally, who returned to win her next two starts, including the Lowther Stakes (G2).
Big Evs is small but mighty. His only defeat was in the Nunthorpe (G1) as a 2-year-old against older horses. The Michael Appleby trainee put up a good early fight but couldn’t keep up with the larger, older rivals. Think teenager against college-age kids. Big Evs returned to his own age group and ran them off their feet in the Flying Childers Stakes (G2).
Tiger Belle held on to win her last two starts by a neck and a nose. In the Prix d'Arenberg (G3) at PariLongchamp, She made all the pace and refused to give in to the second-place finisher Dawn Charger, who was making her first start. Dawn Charger returned to win the six-furlong Prix Eclipse (G3) and place in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (G3). Conditioned by Adrian McGuinness, Tiger Belle completed the five furlongs over soft ground in 55.75 seconds.
Closer to home, No Nay Mets captured 3 of 4 by a combined 12 1/4 lengths. The George Weaver trainee can be forgiven his ninth-place finish behind Valiant Force in the Norfolk Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot in his second start. The son of No Nay Never owns some of the highest Brisnet Speed Ratings in the field.
By Ashley Tamulonis
This year’s likely favorite is Big Evs, trained by Michael Appleby. The Blue Point colt enters off a victory in the five-furlong Flying Childers Stakes (G2) at Doncaster. He also has wins in the Windsor Castle Stakes and the Molecomb Stakes (G3). Big Evs is one of few Europe runners who likes to set the pace and will be involved early.
The Nyquist filly Crimson Advocate also figures to be prominent early and enters off a victory in the Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot. She’s undefeated in two turf starts and owns the best Brisnet Speed Rating in the field.
Crimson Advocate’s stablemate No Nay Mets, conditioned by George Weaver, was unsuccessful at Ascot, finishing ninth in the Norfolk Stakes (G2), but he bounced back with consecutive victories back in the U.S. The 93 Brisnet Speed Rating he earned in the Tyro is the second-highest speed figure in the field. Norfolk Stakes winner Valiant Force certainly deserves consideration.
The brilliant filly Brightwork will make her turf debut after suffering her first career defeat when stretching out in the Alcibiades (G1). Although she never has raced on the lawn, her breeding suggests she will take to the surface change. Brightwork is expected to be cross-entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Another who caught my eye was John Sadler-trained Slider. The Jimmy Creed colt won his turf debut last out in the Speakeasy at Santa Anita, giving him the advantage of having a race over a course that can be tricky at the five-furlong distance.
Summary
Four of the last five Juvenile Turf Sprint winners were successful in their final preps and in stakes.
Four of the five employed a pacesetting style with the outlier being last year’s winner at Keeneland.
Two favorites won. The rest finished off the board.
Irad Ortiz Jr. rode three of the five winners.
Three winners paid double-digits, including two as the second choice.