Keys to the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies has been contested for 32 years. During this time, racing fans have witnessed thrilling finishes and champions in the making.

Santa Anita has hosted six of the last 16 Breeders’ Cup events. This year, the Breeders’ Cup will once again head to the Southern California, but this time, to the beautiful Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

The keys to this year’s Juvenile Fillies is … there aren’t any. At least, not for Del Mar since this is the first year that Del Mar will host the Breeders’ Cup.  We could speculate that Santa Anita factors are a general precedent for Del Mar. If that’s the case, the local fillies in California have the home advantage in the Breeders’ Cup. The local horse won five of the last seven times that Santa Anita hosted the year-end event and locals have finished in the top three spots eight times. 

The Favorite

The favorite has succeeded in eleven of the last seventeen editions of the Juvenile Fillies, so the event is considered a straightforward race to handicap.  That is true, except in California. Longshots captured the last three editions of the race when Santa Anita hosted the Breeders’ Cup.

In 2013, at Santa Anita, Ria Antonia paid $66.60 via disqualification of She’s a Tiger, a 5-1 shot.

The highest payout in the history of the BC Juvenile Fillies occurred at Santa Anita in 2014. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas proved that he is still sneaky at pulling off the upset when Take Charge Brandi took advantage of a speed bias over a drying out track to score at 61-1.  Backers of the well-bred filly were rewarded with $125.40 for a $2 win ticket. 

Last year, Champagne Room was ignored in the Juvenile Fillies after her distant fourth-place finish in the Chandelier Stakes. Jockey Mario Gutierrez kept the filly closer to the pace in the Breeders’ Cup, resulting in a $69.20 return on a $2 bet.

Still, just because the favorite normally doesn’t win the Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita isn’t a reason to toss her completely. Since 2000, the beaten favorite has placed fourth or better in all but two instances, no matter which track hosts.  The second and third favorites don’t fare so well. The second favorite has won once in the last sixteen years and placed fourth or better seven times. The third betting choice has never won but has crossed the wire in second or third six times. 

Prep Races

Which Breeders’ Cup prep race produces the most Juvenile Filly winners? Since 2000, the Chandelier Stakes, formerly known as the Oak Leaf Stakes, has been the most instrumental prep race.  Five two-year-olds exited the Grade 1 race and captured the Breeders Cup. Four fillies used the Frizette Stakes as a springboard to the Breeders’ Cup winner’s circle.

Two Juvenile Filly heroines prepped in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes. She Be Wild prepped over the Keeneland Polytrack before capturing the Juvenile Fillies over Pro-Ride at Santa Anita. It shouldn’t have been a surprise, but the youngster paid $10.60 to win. Take Charge Brandi went to the Breeders’ Cup via the Keeneland prep, this time on dirt. She is one of three fillies who didn’t win or place second in their Breeder’s Cup prep since 2000.

The rest of the Juvenile Fillies heroines took various routes to the Breeders’ Cup, including the Arlington-Washington Lassie, Matron, Summer Stakes (Canada), and My Dear Girl (FL Stallion Stakes Series).  Beholder was second in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) but skipped the Chandelier Stakes, which was scheduled 28 days later. Trainer Richard Mandella sent Beholder out to dominate allowance runners a week after the Chandelier. The veteran trainer captured his second Juvenile Fillies trophy with his developing superstar.  

Starts

Three and four starts leading to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies appears to be the key. Thirteen winning youngsters made three or four starts before the Breeders’ Cup. Two had five preps, one had six, and the oddity, Indian Blessing, started only twice.

Running Style/Post Position

The tracks in South California are speed favoring.

During the 2017 Del Mar summer meet in races contested at a mile or farther on the main track, thirty-three winners raced on the lead or no farther back than two lengths from the pacesetter. Eleven horses were successful sitting up to five lengths behind the pace. Eight runners got the job done from six lengths or farther back. 

The Juvenile Fillies always attracts a full field.  Field sizes usually vary from eight to fourteen starters. Youngsters in posts five to fourteen fare the best.  Beholder is the only Juvenile Fillies heroine who has started from the rail in California since 2000.

Races contested at a mile or farther on the main track during the opening week of the Del Mar 2016 fall and 2017 summer meets with fields of seven or more horses were won by horses breaking from posts four through seven.

Jockey

Since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, no jockey has had his photo taken in the winner’s circle more than twice. Seven jockeys, four since 2000, are dual winners; John Velazquez (2000, 2002); Corey Nakatani (2004, 2011); Garrett Gomez (2007, 2012); and Mike Smith (2008, 2015).

Trainer:

D. Wayne Lukas has a way with the ladies. He has sent 44 starters into the Breeders’ Cup Fillies starting gate, more than twice the number of any other trainer. 18 of his charges have captured the top four spots, 6 of them winners.  Lukas has trained two winners of the Juvenile Fillies since 2000, the last was Take Charge Brandi, the longest shot in the field in 2014.

Bob Baffert is a fixture on the Southern California racing circuit and always has a herd of classy two-year-olds in his barn. He has sent 22 juvenile fillies to the Breeders’ Cup. Only two have won, but four have placed second.  Last year, Baffert was represented by the favorite, American Gal, who placed third after a troubled trip. Baffert’s lightly raced charge Alluring Star was second in the Chandelier Stakes behind Moonshine Memories.

Mark Casse pre-entered three fillies in the event. Casse conditioned his most accomplished filly Heavenly Love to a dominating 5 1/2 length score in the Alcibiades. Casse also entered Mazarine Stakes (CAN-G3) heroine Wonder Gadot and last out maiden winner Gio Game Casse.  The prominent trainer has saddled eight two-year-old fillies at the Breeders’ Cup. None have won, but two have hit the board.

Ken McPeek has sent numerous fillies to the Breeders’ Cup without success. He has a 12-0-2-3 record in the race. The last three times that McPeek has been represented in the Juvenile Fillies, his charges have finished third or fourth; Rosalind (2013) and Dothraki Queen (2015) grabbed the show spot.  Last year Daddys Lil Darling completed the Superfecta after placing in the Alcibiades. This year, Princess Warrior also placed in the Alcibiades and will follow in the hoofprints of Daddys Lil Darling to the Breeders’ Cup.

Doug O'Neill hasn’t had luck in the Juvenile Fillies. O’Neil is 0-5, and none of his charges have hit the board. He has a strong chance this year with Piedi Bianchi who chased Moonshine Memories in their two meetings.

If the dominant California filly Moonshine Memories Frizette Stakes champ Separationofpowers  arrives in the Juvenile Fillies winner’s circle, it will be a first for trainers Simon Callaghan and Chad Brown.

Finding the Winner

So here’s how to pick the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner:

Three to four lifetime starts;

Won/placed in their last start, preferably a stakes;

Pacesetting/pressing running style;

Competed at a mile or farther in their last start;

Post #4 and up;

Logical longshot at 5-1 or greater odds.

Keep the favorite and second favorite in your exotic wagers. If the filly is locally based, she has a good chance of winning or hitting the board.